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Farmers Insurance Open Odds, Predictions & Picks

Michael Harrison

by Michael Harrison in Golf

Updated Jan 23, 2023 · 9:19 AM PST

Jon Rahm watches a tee shot
Jon Rahm tees off on No. 17 during the final round of The American Express on the Pete Dye Stadium Course at PGA West in La Quinta, Calif., Sunday, Jan. 22, 2023.
  • The Farmers Insurance Open from Torrey Pines in San Diego, CA tees off Wednesday, January 25th
  • Jon Rahm is the +450 favorite over Tony Finau and Xander Schauffele
  • Below, see the Farmers Insurance Open odds to win, plus picks and the best-value bets

After Jon Rahm won for the second time in two PGA Tour starts in 2023 at The American Express, he and the worlds best head to San Diego for the Farmers Insurance Open. Five of the top ten players are teeing it up, with the event starting a day earlier than normal. That’s so the event can end on a Saturday before the NFL’s AFC and NFC championship games kick off Sunday.

The South and North courses will be alternated the first two days, with those making the cut moving to the South Course for the duration of the tournament. Last year, Will Zalatoris dropped a playoff to Luke List. Ten of the last 14 iterations of this championship have resulted in a winning margin of just one stroke, or a playoff was needed.

2023 Farmers Insurance Open Odds

Golfers Odds
Jon Rahm +450
Tony Finau +1100
Xander Schauffele +1200
Justin Thomas +1400
Will Zalatoris +1600
Collin Morikawa +1600
Sungjae Im +2000
Max Homa +2500
Taylor Montgomery +2500
Jason Day +2800
Hideki Matsuyama +3000
Si Woo Kim +4000
Maverick McNealy +4500
Sahith Theegala +5500
Keegan Bradley +5500
Cam Davis +5500
Justin Rose +6000
Adam Hadwin +6000
Taylor Pendrith +6000
Wyndham Clark +6500

Odds as of January 23rd at DraftKings Sportsbook. Claim a DraftKings Sportsbook promo code to make your Farmers Insurance Open bets.

Jon Rahm is the betting favorite at +450 to win this tournament for the second time. He also won at this track at the 2021 US Open for his first career major. Other top-ten golfers competing this week are Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa and last year’s runner-up Will Zalatoris.


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Xander Schauffele a Solid Wager

Xander Schauffele put to rest any concerns people may have had about his withdrawal from the Sentry TOC (back), as he tied for third last week at The American Express. That was the X-Man’s five straight top-10 result in tournaments he’s finished. Taking that further, in his last 14 completed events, he has top-20’s in all but one of them, including three victories (Zurich Classic, Travelers, Scottish Open).

Xander Schauffele’s Strokes Gained Stats Last 24 Rounds

Approach Tee-To-Green Ball Striking Total Short Game Putting
1 2 4 7 21 23

This is a home game for Schauffele as well, as he’ll have the backing of the local crowd. He very nearly gave them what they wanted two years ago, where he wound up in a tie for second here. At +1200 he has the third shortest odds on the board, but that’s still decent enough value.

Past Five Farmers Insurance Open Winners

Year Winner
2022 Luke List
2021 Patrick Reed
2020 Marc Leishman
2019 Justin Rose
2018 Jason Day

2023 Farmers Insurance Open Picks and Value Bets

  1. Collin Morikawa (+1600): The last time Collin Morikawa teed it up, it appeared like he was going to cruise to an easy victory at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. He ended up ceding the title to Jon Rahm, but it was still a very solid runner-up result. He’s a streaky putter, but if he can be halfway decent on the greens, he can be a force.
  2. Jason Day (+2800): Something about Torrey Pines brings out the best in Jason Day. He’s won the tournament twice (2015, 2018), and was runner-up in 2014. Last year, he was the 54-hole co-leader, before he eventually settled for a third place tie. In five of his last six events the Aussie has placed inside the top-25.
  3. Davis Thompson (+11000): If you’re looking for a strong option in the top 10/20 markets, look no further than Davis Thompson with great long shot potential. Just last weekend he went toe-to-toe with Jon Rahm, where he eventually finished in solo second, a shot out of a playoff.


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