Trail Blazers vs Nuggets Player-Prop Picks for Nov 2 – See Which Plus-Money Lillard Prop to Target

• Trail Blazers vs Nuggets collide on Monday, November 2, at Ball Arena in the 2026-27 NBA season
• Jamal Murray, Deni Avdija and Damian Lillard stand out as Trail Blazers vs Nuggets player props
• Check my Trail Blazers vs Nuggets picks and predictions for Monday

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The Denver Nuggets (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 O/U) host the Portland Trail Blazers (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS, 2-3 O/U) in a Western Conference clash that should feature high-octane offense on both ends of the floor. Tip-off is scheduled for 9:00 PM ET on Monday, Nov. 2, at Ball Arena, with television coverage on Altitude and KUNP.

Oddsmakers project plenty of points with a lofty 231.5-point total, pegging Denver as 4.5-point home favorites. With elite shot-makers and high-usage focal points leading the way, here are three standout player prop picks to target for tonight’s action.

Nuggets vs Trail Blazers Player Prop Picks

With a massive 231.5-point total and a narrow spread on the board, you can find immense value across the NBA player props market. My selections focus on exploiting specific home and away performance splits alongside advantageous defensive matchups in a game projected to feature extremely high offensive volume.

Trail Blazers vs Nuggets Prop Pick #1: Murray 23+ Points (-108 at Novig)

Murray is thriving at Ball Arena, averaging a staggering 30.5 points per game at home compared to his 25.8 season and last-10 averages. Anchoring a 25.6% home usage rate across 39.4 minutes, he should comfortably exploit a Trail Blazers defense carrying a 107.9 defensive rating. With the Over priced at -122 for this 22.5-point NBA player points props line, his aggressive scoring volume makes this an appealing spot.

Although the Trail Blazers are allowing just 109.2 points per game, Murray’s elevated home production commands serious attention. Murray has already showcased explosive ceiling performances this season, pouring in 42 points on 25 shots at home against the Pelicans and erupting for 39 points with seven triples in his last outing against Phoenix. He has now cleared 23 points in three of his last four games, averaging 18.8 field goal attempts and 10.5 three-point attempts across that stretch.

Murray has relished this division rivalry at Ball Arena, hanging a historic 55-point masterpiece on Portland on 20-of-36 shooting back in February 2025. He has no hesitation hunting his shot against their perimeter coverage.

Trail Blazers vs Nuggets Prop Pick #1: Avdija 23+ Points (-111 at BetMGM)

Avdija is enjoying a dominant campaign, carrying a 23.0 season scoring average that spikes to 24.3 points in away contests. Operating with a 27.5% road usage rate in 33.7 minutes per game, he serves as a primary offensive catalyst for the Trail Blazers. The Nuggets have been generous on the defensive end, allowing 115.2 opponent points per game alongside a .466 opponent shooting percentage.

Securing the best available odds of -111 at BetMGM, I am backing Avdija to clear this 22.5-point hurdle against a vulnerable frontcourt. Avdija has surpassed this 22.5 threshold in four consecutive games entering tonight, tallying 26, 23, 24, and 24 points while consistently logging double-digit shot attempts (averaging 14.8 field goal attempts over that span).

His aggression away from home has been relentless, highlighted by a 26-point showing at Sacramento and 23 at the Lakers. He also brings strong historical form into Denver, having torched the Nuggets for 26 points and 23 points in his two visits to Ball Arena last season.

Trail Blazers vs Nuggets Prop Pick #3: Lillard Under 4.5 Assists (+113 at Novig)

While the Nuggets permit 28.0 opponent assists per game, Lillard’s current distribution metrics point heavily toward the Under. Offering plus-money value at +115, this NBA assist props line feels slightly inflated. Lillard averages just 3.6 assists on the season, dipping to 3.3 assists on the road. Instead of facilitating, he relies heavily on his own shot creation, commanding a massive 30.4% usage rate in away matchups.

Given his distinct score-first approach in this system, I expect Lillard to fall short of this 4.5-assist benchmark tonight. Lillard has stayed under 4.5 assists in four of his five games to start the season, registering counts of just 2, 4, 2, and 4 helpers. In fact, he has failed to clear four assists in every single road contest this year (recording 2 at Sacramento, 4 at the Lakers, and 4 at Utah), and in every game since the season opener.

With Deni Avdija (5.6 assists per game) and Scoot Henderson sharing primary playmaking duties, Lillard’s role has skewed almost exclusively toward perimeter scoring, as evidenced by his 9.4 three-point attempts per game compared to just a 17.8% assist rate.