First Round Leader Odds and Picks at 2021 US Open
- The 121st US Open from Torrey Pines Golf Course in San Diego, California tees off Thursday, June 17th
- Jon Rahm is the +2000 favorite over Dustin Johnson and Xander Schauffele to lead after the first round
- See the best bets and odds to grab the first-round lead in the article below
The third major championship of the year has arrived at Torrey Pines Golf Course, as the US Open is being contested at this venue for the first time since 2008.
Jon Rahm, who led by six strokes through 54 holes at the Memorial Tournament before having to withdraw due to a positive COVID test, is the betting favorite to claim his first career major title. He’s had success at this track in the past, as he made the 2017 Farmers Insurance Open his first PGA Tour title.
In this article, we’ll explore which players have the best chance of being the leader after day one, along with what players are playing well on Thursday’s this season.
2021 US Open First Round Leader Odds
| Golfer | Odds at DraftKings | Tee Time |
|---|---|---|
| Jon Rahm | +2000 | 1:36pm |
| Xander Schauffele | +2800 | 7:51am |
| Dustin Johnson | +2800 | 1:36pm |
| Brooks Koepka | +3300 | 7:29am |
| Tony Finau | +3300 | 8:02am |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +3300 | 1:14pm |
| Jordan Spieth | +3300 | 1:25pm |
| Rory McIlroy | +3300 | 1:36pm |
| Patrick Reed | +3300 | 1:36pm |
| Patrick Cantlay | +3300 | 1:47pm |
| Justin Thomas | +4000 | 7:29am |
| Collin Morikawa | +4000 | 7:29am |
| Viktor Hovland | +4000 | 7:40am |
| Tyrrell Hatton | +4500 | 7:40am |
| Louis Oosthuizen | +4500 | 1:47pm |
| Shane Lowry | +5000 | 7:29am |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +5000 | 1:14pm |
| Paul Casey | +5000 | 1:14pm |
| Will Zalatoris | +5000 | 1:25pm |
| Scottie Scheffler | +5000 | 1:25pm |
Odds as of June 15th
The forecast is expected to be mainly sunny throughout the entire day. The temperature for the morning wave of players will be low 70 degrees, reaching high 70’s in the afternoon.
Very early in the morning will feature little wind that will barely gust at all, but that will reach twelve miles per hour for the afternoon wave.
A benefit for those teeing it up in the morning is the exact same as it is every week – less bumpy greens with fewer players chewing them up.
Scottie Scheffler a Fast Starter
Scottie Scheffler is no stranger to getting off to fast starts this season. In his last event at the Memorial, he fired an opening 5-under, 67. He used that as a springboard to finish in third place where he had a chance to win all the way to the final hole.
On the campaign, he’s been really solid, ranking sixth in scoring on Thursdays.
2020-21 PGA Tour First Round Scoring Average Leaders
| Golfer | Average Score | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Jason Kokrak | 69.00 | +5000 |
| 2. Cameron Smith | 69.07 | +5500 |
| 4. Patrick Reed | 69.20 | +3300 |
| 5. Brian Harman | 69.37 | +8000 |
| 6. Scottie Scheffler | 69.50 | +5000 |
| 7. Webb Simpson | 69.54 | +5500 |
| T-9. Patrick Cantlay | 69.67 | +3300 |
| T-9. Joaquin Niemann | 69.67 | +7000 |
| 11. Sergio Garcia | 69.69 | +8000 |
| 13. Jon Rahm | 69.80 | +2000 |
The runner-up at this year’s WGC-Match Play continues to show up in big events, as he’s placed inside the top-20 in his last four majors, including a T-8 at last month’s PGA Championship.
Scheffler is eleventh in strokes gained off-the-tee, which will be critical for success to combat Torrey Pines and the thick rough. He also is eighth in birdie average, which should help him grab at chance at the day one lead.
- Pick: Scottie Scheffler (+5000)
Charley Hoffman a First Round Warrior
Charley Hoffman has made a habit in recent years of popping up on the first page of the leaderboard in majors championships. Since 2015, he’s found himself inside the top-six five times, including the 2017 Masters, in which he led after the first round.
He’s also quietly been playing some very consistent golf, with twelve straight cuts made, and he’s placed inside the top-20 in eight of his last ten events. Subsequently, in his last 24 rounds, he finds himself performing well in several key strokes gained categories.
Hoffman’s Strokes Gained Stats In Last 24 Rounds
| Ball Striking | Approach | Total | Tee-to-Green | Off-the-Tee | Putting |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 54 |
On the year, he has several other intriguing numbers, ranking second in total birdies, sixth approaching the green and 20th in bogey avoidance.
In his most recent completed tournament at Torrey Pines, he was T-9 at the 2020 Farmers Insurance Open in front of his hometown San Diego fans.
- Pick: Charley Hoffman (+6600)
Bubba Watson Excels at Torrey Pines
Bubba Watson has won on this golf course before, when he defeated Phil Mickelson by one stroke in 2011. His next three appearances yielded solid results, with T-13, T-23 and T-6 showings.
In his last twelve rounds at this course, he’s tops in a plethora of strokes gained categories.
Watson’s Strokes Gained Stats In Last 12 Rounds at Torrey Pines
| Total | Tee-to-Green | Ball Striking | Approach | Off-the-Tee | Around-the-Green |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 20 |
You’d think with these phenomenal numbers Bubba would play at this venue every year, but strangely he didn’t compete at all from 2015-19. The T-6 result was from 2020, then he missed the cut this year.
Before his spotty last two events, he had some thing of a resurgence, with four of five tournaments inside the top-20, with a pair of top-10’s. The other event was a T-26 at the Masters.
Since finishing T-5 at the 2007 US Open, Watson has had a very checkered resume at US Open’s but given his propensity to play well at this track, these odds are very enticing.
- Pick: Bubba Watson (+9000)
Michael "Hound Dog" Harrison is well known in the sports industry as the resident statistician for the SC with Jay Onrait Show. He has worked at TSN for over 16 years, where he's been featured on Sportscentre, That's Hockey, That's Hockey 2Nite, The Masters preview shows, and several more.
