Mexico Championship Odds, Predictions, Expert Picks 2024
- The 2024 Mexico Championship will take place from Feb. 22 to Feb. 25 at Vidanta Vallarta
- Tony Finau headlines a mediocre field after dominating last year’s edition at the same course
- See the 2024 Mexico Championship odds, predictions, and best value bets
The next stop on the PGA Tour is the Mexico Championship at Vidanta Vallarta in Nuevo Vallarta which will run from Thursday, Feb. 22, to Sunday, Feb. 26.
The field is relatively depleted with no top 20 players in attendance. The odds to win the 2024 Mexico Championship show one player head-and-shoulders above the rest, however. Reigning-champion Tony Finau occupies the top of the board at +750. No other player is shorter than +1600.
2024 Mexico Championship Odds
| Golfers | Odds |
|---|---|
| Tony Finau | +750 |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | +1600 |
| Emiliano Grillo | +2000 |
| Stephan Jaeger | +2500 |
| Taylor Pendrith | +2500 |
| Thomas Detry | +2500 |
| Keith Mitchell | +2800 |
| Brandon Wu | +3300 |
| Davis Thompson | +3300 |
| Erik van Rooyen | +3300 |
| Mark Hubbard | +3300 |
| Patrick Rodgers | +3300 |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | +3300 |
| Ryan Fox | +3500 |
| Aaron Raid | +4000 |
| Doug Ghim | +4000 |
| Jake Knapp | +4000 |
| Ryo Hisatsune | +4500 |
| Austin Eckroat | +5000 |
| Chesson Hadley | +5000 |
| Justin Suh | +5000 |
| Michael Kim | +5000 |
| Cameron Champ | +5500 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | +5500 |
| Alejandro Tosti | +6600 |
| Alexander Bjork | +6600 |
| Charley Hoffman | +6600 |
| KH Lee | +6600 |
| Maverick McNealy | + 6600 |
| Nate Lashley | +6600 |
Nicolai Hojgaard (+1600) and Emiliano Grillo (+2000) round out the top-three favorites at the 2024 Mexico Championship, followed by a trio of player at +2500: Stephan Jaeger, Taylor Pendrith, and Thomas Detry.
Odds as of Feb. 19 at BetMGM. Claim a BetMGM sign up promo to get $150 in bonus bets.
Finau Crushes Competition at Vidanta Vallarta
Tony Finau’s recent history at Vidanta Vallarta alone justifies his position at the top of the odds. Finau won this tournament last year with a score of -24. And that victory came against a stronger field, with world #3 Jon Rahm finishing runner-up at -21. All four of Finau’s rounds in the 2023 edition were five under or better (65. 64, 65, 66 on the par 71 course).
The year prior (the first time the Mexico Championship was an official event on the PGA Tour), Finau finished T2 to Rahm with a score of -17.
Finau is also at the top because he’s the top-ranked player in the field, by a significant margin. Finau is currently #24 in the OWGR. The next-highest player participating is second-favorite Nicolai Hojgaard at #34. The 22-year-old Dane finished T33 last year with a score of -8 Hojgaard, 16 strokes behind Finau.
Brandon Wu Has Excellent History at Vidanta Vallarta
World #126 Brandon Wu is listed as the eighth-favorite this week at +3300. Though Wu is just 2-for-4 in making the cut in 2024 (with his best finish a T18 at the Sony Open in Hawaii) he finished third at the Mexico Open last year (-19) and tied for second (-17) the year prior at Vidanta Vallarta.
He had been playing relatively well at the end of 2023, making the cut in seven straight events before missing at the Fortinet Championship. In addition to the Mexico Championship, Wu had two other top-ten finishes last season: T2 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and T9 at the RBC Canadian Open.
Mexico Championship Predictions & Picks
The way Finau has dominated this course, it’s hard not to back him again. He hasn’t played exceptionally to start the 2024 calendar year, but he has made the cut in all five events he’s played and finished T6 at the Farmers Insurance Open.
I am also going to bet on Wu to continue his strong play in Mexico. Listed at +3300 to win, he’s also a +1000 relative longshot to finish in the top five, which he’s done each of the past two years against better fields.
- Brandon Wu top-five finish (+1000)
- Tony Finau top-five finish (+210)
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Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has been with SBD since 2014. He specializes in football, basketball, politics, baseball, and hockey.
