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Mexico Championship Odds, Predictions, Expert Picks 2024

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in Golf

Updated Feb 20, 2024 · 7:35 AM PST

Tony Finau hitting a tee shot
Jan 27, 2024; San Diego, California, USA; Tony Finau hits his tee shot on the second hole during the final round of the Farmers Insurance Open golf tournament at Torrey Pines Municipal Golf Course - South Course. Mandatory Credit: Ray Acevedo-USA TODAY Sports
  • The 2024 Mexico Championship will take place from Feb. 22 to Feb. 25 at Vidanta Vallarta
  • Tony Finau headlines a mediocre field after dominating last year’s edition at the same course
  • See the 2024 Mexico Championship odds, predictions, and best value bets

The next stop on the PGA Tour is the Mexico Championship at Vidanta Vallarta in Nuevo Vallarta which will run from Thursday, Feb. 22, to Sunday, Feb. 26.

The field is relatively depleted with no top 20 players in attendance. The odds to win the 2024 Mexico Championship show one player head-and-shoulders above the rest, however. Reigning-champion Tony Finau occupies the top of the board at +750. No other player is shorter than +1600.

2024 Mexico Championship Odds

Golfers Odds
Tony Finau +750
Nicolai Hojgaard +1600
Emiliano Grillo +2000
Stephan Jaeger +2500
Taylor Pendrith +2500
Thomas Detry +2500
Keith Mitchell +2800
Brandon Wu +3300
Davis Thompson +3300
Erik van Rooyen +3300
Mark Hubbard +3300
Patrick Rodgers +3300
Thorbjorn Olesen +3300
Ryan Fox +3500
Aaron Raid +4000
Doug Ghim +4000
Jake Knapp +4000
Ryo Hisatsune +4500
Austin Eckroat +5000
Chesson Hadley +5000
Justin Suh +5000
Michael Kim +5000
Cameron Champ +5500
Mackenzie Hughes +5500
Alejandro Tosti +6600
Alexander Bjork +6600
Charley Hoffman +6600
KH Lee +6600
Maverick McNealy + 6600
Nate Lashley +6600

Nicolai Hojgaard (+1600) and Emiliano Grillo (+2000) round out the top-three favorites at the 2024 Mexico Championship, followed by a trio of player at +2500: Stephan Jaeger, Taylor Pendrith, and Thomas Detry.

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Finau Crushes Competition at Vidanta Vallarta

Tony Finau’s recent history at Vidanta Vallarta alone justifies his position at the top of the odds. Finau won this tournament last year with a score of -24. And that victory came against a stronger field, with world #3 Jon Rahm finishing runner-up at -21. All four of Finau’s rounds in the 2023 edition were five under or better (65. 64, 65, 66 on the par 71 course).

YouTube video

The year prior (the first time the Mexico Championship was an official event on the PGA Tour), Finau finished T2 to Rahm with a score of -17.

Finau is also at the top because he’s the top-ranked player in the field, by a significant margin. Finau is currently #24 in the OWGR. The next-highest player participating is second-favorite Nicolai Hojgaard at #34. The 22-year-old Dane finished T33 last year with a score of -8 Hojgaard, 16 strokes behind Finau.

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Brandon Wu Has Excellent History at Vidanta Vallarta

World #126 Brandon Wu is listed as the eighth-favorite this week at +3300. Though Wu is just 2-for-4 in making the cut in 2024 (with his best finish a T18 at the Sony Open in Hawaii) he finished third at the Mexico Open last year (-19) and tied for second (-17) the year prior at Vidanta Vallarta.

YouTube video

He had been playing relatively well at the end of 2023, making the cut in seven straight events before missing at the Fortinet Championship. In addition to the Mexico Championship, Wu had two other top-ten finishes last season: T2 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and T9 at the RBC Canadian Open.

Mexico Championship Predictions & Picks

The way Finau has dominated this course, it’s hard not to back him again. He hasn’t played exceptionally to start the 2024 calendar year, but he has made the cut in all five events he’s played and finished T6 at the Farmers Insurance Open.

I am also going to bet on Wu to continue his strong play in Mexico. Listed at +3300 to win, he’s also a +1000 relative longshot to finish in the top five, which he’s done each of the past two years against better fields.

  • Brandon Wu top-five finish (+1000)
  • Tony Finau top-five finish (+210)
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