The Northern Trust 2021 Best Sleepers & Longshot Picks

• The Northern Trust, the first event of the FedExCup Playoffs, tees off Thursday, August 19th from Liberty National, in Jersey City, NJ
• Justin Thomas has gained at least 3 strokes on approach in six of his past nine measured starts
• Read below for analysis of the event and our favorite sleepers and longshot bets

The FedExCup Playoffs are here, and the first test is the Northern Trust starting on Thursday (August 19th). The top-125 players this season, minus Louis Oosthuizen, will tee it up at Liberty National, in Jersey City, New Jersey, looking to take home a share of the $9.5 million dollar purse.

Liberty National last hosted this tournament in 2019, and there’s a few interesting trends to consider. All but four of the top-20 finishers that year gained strokes on the field around the green, while three of the four that didn’t lost half a stroke in that category or less. Also, Par-4 scoring on holes ranging from 450-500 yards will be key, as five of the 11 Par-4’s fall within that distance.

2021 Northern Trust Odds

Odds as of August 16th at DraftKings and FanDuel.

Of course, recent ball striking numbers should also be heavily factored into this week’s betting decisions, but not necessarily driving distance. There’s not a ton of length to Liberty National, by Tour pros standards, and many of the longer holes require a forced layup for position.

Thomas Disrespected By Sportsbooks

When was the last time you saw Justin Thomas with odds north of +2200? I’ll tell you. It was at the 2018 WGC Bridgestone Invitational, when he went off as a 25-1 longshot to win at Firestone. Thomas backers cleaned up that week, as he won by four strokes, and online sportsbooks deserve to be punished again this week for pricing him at +2700.

#TBT
Rewatch @JustinThomas34's final round as he cruised to a four-shot victory at the 2018 Bridgestone Invitational. Good luck this week JT! #TeamTitleistpic.twitter.com/QjqvIEtfdy

— Titleist Europe (@TitleistEurope) July 25, 2019

Thomas, the No. 5 ranked player in the world, has been a ball striking stud all season, but has been derailed by a cold putter lately. He’s gained at least 3 strokes on approach in six of his past nine measured events, and gained 6.1 shots with his irons last time out.

Unfortunately, Thomas lost 5.1 strokes putting at the WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational, but if the putter heats back up at Liberty National he could run away with this title. Over the past 100 rounds, JT ranks second in the field in strokes gained tee-to-green, third on approach, and sixth around the green.

Justin Thomas Strokes Gained Ranks – Last 100 Rounds

Over that same timeframe, he leads the field in Par-4 scoring, ranks fourth in Par-4 scoring on holes between 450-500 yards, and has produced the 10th most birdies.

Pick: Justin Thomas to Win (+2700)

Harris Coming In Hot

Another statistical darling this week is Harris English, who narrowly missed out on becoming the first three-time winner on Tour this season two weeks ago.

He didn’t qualify for this event in 2019, but last season he finished second when the tournament was held at TPC Boston. He’s finished fourth or better in three of his past four starts, including a victory, and has seven top-10’s in 22 events in 2020-21.

Looking over results from the 2019 Northern Trust at Liberty National and one stands out…Harris English, who DNP since he was busy fighting for his Tour card at KFT Finals.

Two years later he's a top-10 player in the world and has the inside track for a Ryder Cup spot.

— Will Gray (@WillGrayGolfbet) August 16, 2021

Over the past 24 rounds, he ranks third in total strokes gained and birdie or better percentage. Over that same timeframe, he’s eighth in Par-4 scoring and around the green play, while checking in at number nine in strokes gained putting.

Pick: Harris English Top-10 Finish (+350)

Top-20 Value Picks

1. Ian Poulter (+280): Much like English, Ian Poulter’s game is strong right now. He’s posted results of 26th or better in four of his past six starts, including two top-10’s, and rates out very well in short game and Par-4 scoring metrics. Over the past 24 rounds, Poulter is 26th in Par-4 scoring, including 12th on holes ranging between 450-500 yards, and fifth in around the green play and putting.
2. Branden Grace (+300): Aside from a missed cut at the Open Championship, Grace has been lights out recently. He came up just short last week at the Wyndham, losing in a six-man playoff to Kevin Kisner, and also owns a 4th and 7th place finish in his last four starts. He ranks 10th in the field over the past 24 rounds in Par-4 scoring and putting, and third in strokes gained around the green.