Odds on First Round Leader & Best Matchup Play at WGC Mexico Championship

Dustin Johnson is going for his third win in four years at the WGC-Mexico Championship. Photo by Omar Rawlings (flickr).
  • The WGC-Mexico Championship tees off Thursday, February 20th
  • Rory McIlroy favored to grab the first round lead
  • Who’s the best players to back on matchup plays?

The first World Golf Championships event of 2020 heads to Mexico for the WGC-Mexico Championship, where Rory McIlroy is the betting favorite to take home the title.

While we already have you covered on who are the best bets and value picks to win the tournament, who stands a strong chance to be the first round leader and what are some good head-to-head matchups to bet on this week?

2020 WGC-Mexico Championship First Round Leader Odds

Golfer Odds Tee Time
Rory McIlroy +1200 11:51am
Dustin Johnson +1400 11:39am
Jon Rahm +1600 1:03pm
Justin Thomas +1800 12:51pm
Adam Scott +2200 1:03pm
Webb Simpson +2200 12:39pm
Xander Schauffele +2200 11:27am
Hideki Matsuyama +2500 12:51pm
Tommy Fleetwood +2500 11:51am
Bryson DeChambeau +2800 12:27pm

Odds taken Feb. 19th

Players With Earlier Tee Times Have Slight Advantage

The tee times for the first round range from the earliest at 11:03am, to the latest at 1:15pm. For those teeing off earlier, they should be provided with a slightly easier day than those playing later.

While the weather will be sunny and beautiful all day, at 11 am it’ll be a slight 5 MPH wind, with that increasing to 16 MPH towards the end of play. Additionally, wind gusts will be at a paltry 7 MPH at 11 am but that switches to 24 MPH by the conclusion of the round. In this instance, it pays to be teeing off earlier rather than later.

Dustin Johnson Dominates This Course

It would hardly be a shocker to see DJ atop the leaderboard after the first round, given that he’s won two of the three years this tournament has been contested at Club de Golf Chapultepec in addition to a seventh place finish. He also has a nice 11:39 am tee time to take advantage of the more benign conditions.

He’s also posted three top-10 finishes in his last four tournaments, and he’s the second favorite to be first round leader for a reason.

Pick: Dustin Johnson (+1400)

2020 WGC-Mexico Championship First Round Leader Best Value Picks

  1. Bryson DeChambeau (+2800): Fifth in first round scoring average this season. Coming off a T-5th result at Genesis Invitational. Has shot 68 or better in four of five first rounds this season, with worst score being a 70.
  2. Matt Kuchar (+4000): Led after first round of last weeks Genesis Invitational before finished in a tie for second. Was T-2nd after two rounds at this event last year. 16th in first round scoring this season.
  3. Cameron Smith (+6600): Long shot with upside. Won last month at Sony Open but inexplicably hasn’t been strong in last three events, pushing his odds higher. T-6th in tournament debut last year. Playing alongside Kuchar at 11:27am with the better wind conditions.

2020 WGC-Mexico Championship Tournament Matchups

Golfer Odds
Jon Rahm -155
Dustin Johnson +129

Should Jon Rahm Be Favored?

Without question, of the two golfers Jon Rahm has been playing better golf for a longer period of time, finishing no worse than T-17th (last week) in his last seven tournaments, with two victories and six top-10’s in that span. Compare that to DJ who hasn’t been bad in the last four events, but not as dominant as the fiery Spaniard (2nd, T-7th, T-10th, T-32nd).

Dustin Johnson and Jon Rahm’s Results at WGC-Mexico Championship

Dustin Johnson
Jon Rahm

WIN 2019 T-45th
T-7th 2018 T-20th
WIN 2017 T-3rd

However, what sets the two golfers apart is their tournament history here, with DJ in complete control in Mexico compared to Rahm’s two so-so events (to go along with a solid T-3rd in 2017). You’re getting pretty good value on DJ here at a course he’s played much better than Rahm, so take advantage of it.

Pick: Dustin Johnson (+129)

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