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PGA BMW Championship Sleepers & Longshot Picks 2022

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in Golf

Aug 15, 2022 · 8:49 PM PDT

Sungjae Im and his caddy at the FedEx St. Jude Championship
Aug 11, 2022; Memphis, Tennessee, USA; Sungjae Im points to a drop zone during the first round of the FedEx St. Jude Championship golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: David Yeazell-USA TODAY Sports
  • The 2022 BMW Championship tees off Thursday (August 18) at Wilmington Country Club
  • Sungjae Im has two runner-up results in his last three starts
  • Read below for our favorite sleepers and longshots in the outright, T10 and T20 markets

It seems like everyone and their mother in the golf betting space had a Will Zalatoris outright ticket last week except us. Zalatoris was on our radar but didn’t make the final cut, and unfortunately we’re left kicking ourselves. On the bright side, we did find a +300 winner in the T-20 market thanks to Cameron Davis’ 13th place finish, so the week wasn’t a total loss.

Now the FedEx Cup Playoffs move on to the penultimate event of the season, as the PGA Tour debuts a new course for the BMW Championship. Wilmington Country Club in Delaware will host a professional event for the first time, as the top-70 players in the standings will tee it up at the length track starting on Thursday.

At 7,534 yards as a Par-71, it’s the fourth longest par adjusted course on Tour. That means elite driving and long iron play will be coveted skills to target, and our sleepers and longshots betting card reflects that.

2022 BMW Championship Odds

Golfer Odds to Win Top-10 Odds Top-20 Odds
Sungjae Im +2700 +250 +110
Joaquin Niemann +4000 +300 +120
Max Homa +5000 +350 +135
Trey Mullinax +15000 +800 +275

Odds as of August 15th at DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook.

 

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Our first target is Sungjae Im who’s been on a heater ever since the British Open. He’s finished 12th, 2nd, 2nd in his last three events, and should fit this course perfectly.

Im Checks All the Boxes

Im is the prototypical type of player we want to bet this week. He ranks first in strokes gained off the tee over the past 12 rounds and second in strokes gained tee to green.

He ranks fifth in proximity from 200+ yards, so you know his long irons are sharp, and seventh in strokes gained putting.

Im has gained at least 4.6 strokes ball striking in each of his past three starts and has been positive in nearly every key strokes gained metric during that stretch.

Sungjae Im Strokes Gained Stats – Last 3 Starts

Event T2G OTT APP ARG P
FedEx St. Jude +4.5 +4.7 -0.1 -0.2 +2.4
Wyndham +7.3 +3.5 +2.8 +1 +4.1
3M Open +10.7 +5.5 +5.2 0 +3.8

Another statistic to monitor is Par-4 scoring on holes between 400-450 yards. Wilmington CC features eight Par-4’s that fall into that range, and only 10 players in the field have performed better on those types of holes than Im recently.

Add it all up and Im seems destined for another high finish this week. Before clicking his name however, make sure to price shop. His BMW Championship odds vary from +2000 to +3000 depending on where you look.

Pick: Sungjae Im to Win (+2700)

Joaquin the Dream

If we want elite off the tee and iron play we cannot ignore Joaquin Niemann. The reigning Genesis Open champ gained 7.2 strokes ball striking en route to a 12th place finish last week, including 5.8 strokes with his irons.

Niemann ranks inside the top-20 in good drive percentage (a combination of length and accuracy) and inside the top-13 in both strokes gained tee to green and Par-4 scoring on holes between 400-450 yards over the past 50 rounds.

Also working in his favor is the switch to Bentgrass on the greens this week. Niemann gains an average of 0.13 strokes per round on the field on Bentgrass surfaces, the only type of greens where he’s a positive putter. If he can get hot with the flat stick this week he’s going to be a factor given how well he strikes the ball.

Pick: Joaquin Niemann to Win (+4000), T-10 Finish (+300)

BMW Championship Top-20 Finish Value Picks

  1.  Max Homa (+135): Ranks top-25 in strokes gained tee to green, off the tee, approach, driving distance, proximity from 200+ yards, and putting. He’s already won twice this season with eight additional top-20 results. Let’s not overthink this one.
  2. Trey Mullinax (+275): If recent form is enough of an indication than this is an auto-click. Mullinax has a win and a top-five result last week on his resume over the past month, and ranks top-11 in driving distance over the past 12 rounds, and top-four in strokes gained tee to green, approach, and proximity from 200+ yards.

 

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