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Updated Odds to Win Charles Schwab Challenge Heading Into Final Round; Schauffele Slight +350 Favorite

Xander Schauffele admiring an iron shot
Xander Schauffele is in search of his fifth PGA Tour title at the Charles Schwab Challenge. Photo by @ESPNStatsInfo (Twitter).
  • Xander Schauffele leads by one shot after 54 holes with a packed leaderboard at the Charles Schwab Challenge
  • Many major champions ready to pounce including Justin Thomas, Gary Woodland, Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy, Patrick Reed, and Justin Rose
  • See the updated live odds at Colonial heading into Sunday’s final round

The return to the PGA Tour after a 13-week hiatus has not disappointed, with a star-studded leaderboard at the Charles Schwab Challenge offering up fireworks for a heated Sunday battle between many of the games best. The #12-ranked player in the world, Xander Schauffele, leads the pack by the slimmest of margins, with five players a shot back and 14 golfers within three shots of top spot.

At the beginning of the week, Schauffele’s odds to win his fifth PGA Tour event were set at +3000, but with a weak track record around Colonial (two missed cuts and a T-48th finish), there wasn’t much indication he’d have the edge entering the final round.

Should he stumble, there are plenty of luminaries ready to take advantage with 2017 PGA-champion Justin Thomas and 2016 Charles Schwab-winner Jordan Spieth hot on his heels sporting the shortest odds after the X-Man.

Live Charles Schwab Challenge Odds

Golfer Position Score Odds
Xander Schauffele 1st -13 +350
Justin Thomas T-2nd -12 +500
Jordan Spieth T-2nd -12 +550
Collin Morikawa T-2nd -12 +800
Gary Woodland T-2nd -12 +900
Rory McIlroy T-9th -10 +1200
Branden Grace T-2nd -12 +1600
Bryson DeChambeau T-9th -10 +2000
Patrick Reed T-9th -10 +2200
Justin Rose T-9th -10 +2500
Harold Varner III T-7th -11 +2500
Daniel Berger T-7th -11 +2800
Abraham Ancer T-9th -10 +5000
Corey Conners T-9th -10 +6600

Odds taken June 13th.

Xander Schauffele Has Struggled Converting 54-Hole Leads Into Wins

Throughout his young career, Xander Schauffele has earned a reputation of a workhorse grinder capable of turning deficits into victories – all four of his PGA Tour titles have been won when he trailed heading into the final round. However, his track record of converting 54-hole leads into victories leaves a lot to be desired.

The X-Man will be in tough with so many giants of the game right on his heels, especially at a track that he’s spun his wheels on in three previous attempts. He’s been good-not-great this week at 36th in strokes gained: around the greens and 17th in SG: putting, which is offset by being tied for first in greens in regulation.

With a bunched leaderboard, his previous track record failing to convert 54-hole leads, and his decent-but-not-spectacular numbers around the greens this week, the value simply isn’t there at +350 to wager on Schauffele.

Past Champion Jordan Spieth Poised For Victory

It’s unfathomable that Jordan Spieth hasn’t tasted victory on the PGA Tour since winning the 2017 Open Championship, but this week presents an amazing opportunity to get the monkey off his back. He won this event in 2016 and finished tied second in both 2015 and 2017, so he’s a horse for this course.

His putting has been smoking hot as he’s first in strokes gained on the greens through three rounds, but most importantly, his long game has finally returned. This season he was a horrific 227th in driving accuracy and 161st in SG: tee-to-green; through 54 holes, he’s T-15th and 18th, respectively, in those two categories.

Hogan’s Alley has been his respite, so plunking cash down on him at +550 is enticing with him being just a shot back.

Last Five Charles Schwab Challenge Winners

Year Winner
2019 Kevin Na
2018 Justin Rose
2017 Kevin Kisner
2016 Jordan Spieth
2015 Chris Kirk

Best Live Value Picks at Charles Schwab Challenge

  1. Gary Woodland (+900): Last year’s US Open champ lost 25 pounds in quarantine and it’s working well for him thus far, as he’s just a shot back and is first in SG: approach to the green this week plus third in scrambling, a lethal combination.
  2. Justin Rose (+2500): If you bet on the 2018 champ pre-tournament, you’d be pretty happy with his surprisingly high +5000 odds. Just three off the lead, two late bogeys pushed Rose down the leaderboard but he’s been putting beautifully this week, ranking second and you’re getting great value on him because of so many names to leap frog.
  3. Daniel Berger (+2800): Before quarantine, Berger was on fire, posting T-4th, T-5th and T-9th results in his three prior events. Professionally lurking just two behind, Berger has racked up 27 consecutive rounds at par or better, the longest active streak on tour.
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