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Valspar Championship Odds, Picks & Predictions 2023

Michael Harrison

by Michael Harrison in Golf

Mar 13, 2023 · 8:44 AM PDT

Sam Burns poses for a picture
Mar 20, 2022; Palm Harbor, Florida, USA; Sam Burns poses for a picture on the 18th. green after defeating Davis Riley (not pictured) in a play off during the final round of the Valspar Championship golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Valspar Championship from Palm Harbor Beach, Florida, tees off Thursday, March 16th
  • Justin Thomas is the +1100 favorite over Jordan Spieth and Sam Burns
  • Below, see the Valspar Championship odds to win, plus picks and the best-value bets

Scottie Scheffler blitzed the field at The Players Championship for his sixth win in just over a year in spell-binding fashion. The PGA Tour concludes its Florida swing at the always entertaining Valspar Championship, minus Scheffler. However, it still has a solid field led by Justin Thomas and past winner Jordan Spieth.

Sam Burns is the two-time defending champion, having won last year in a playoff over Davis Riley. He’s attempting to become the first player since Steve Stricker from 2009-11 (John Deere Classic) to win the same event three straight years. The final three holes are affectionately dubbed ‘the snake pit’ with a very challenging end to the round at the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook.

2023 Valspar Championship Odds

Golfers Odds
Justin Thomas +1100
Jordan Spieth +1200
Sam Burns +1600
Matt Fitzpatrick +1800
Justin Rose +2200
Tommy Fleetwood +2500
Keegan Bradley +2500
Adam Hadwin +2800
Denny McCarthy +3000
Davis Riley +3500
Brian Harman +3500
Justin Suh +3500
Wyndham Clark +3500
Gary Woodland +4000
Maverick McNealy +4000
K.H. Lee +5000
Ben Griffin +5000
Brandon Wu +5500
J.T. Poston +6000
Victor Perez +6000

Justin Thomas, who finished T-3rd here a year ago, is the betting favorite at +1100. Jordan Spieth won this event back in 2015, and he has the second shortest odds. Two-time defending champion Sam Burns and reigning US Open winner Matt Fitzpatrick round out the top-four.


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Odds as of March 13th at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Sam Burns Dominates Copperhead Course

It certainly is low hanging fruit to tout Sam Burns, but why shouldn’t it be? The man has won back-to-back Valspar Championships, and he has a T-6th and T-11th showings in his last five tourneys. Understandably, his ‘strokes gained’ stats the last eight rounds at this venue are exceptional.

Sam Burns’ Strokes Gained Stats Last Eight Rounds At Valspar

Total Short Game Putting Tee-To-Green Ball Striking Approach
1 1 1 2 3 3

At +1600, there’s still a decent amount of value for Burns, compared to the top two players on the board in Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth. Though his play has been inconsistent this season, he is coming off a top-35 at the Players Championship, and he’s never finished outside the top-30 at this track in four attempts.

Past Five Valspar Championship Winners

Year Winner
2022 Sam Burns
2021 Sam Burns
2019 Paul Casey
2018 Paul Casey
2017 Adam Hadwin

The 2020 edition was canceled due to COVID-19.

2023 Valspar Championship Picks and Value Bets

  1. Adam Hadwin (+2800): This course is kind to its past champs, and Adam Hadwin is one, having taken the title in 2017 and was T-7th a year ago. He comes off his fifth top-20 on the season, as he tied for 13th at TPC Sawgrass. He gained 9.5 shots on the field tee-to-green, and is fourth in that category in the last twelve spins around Innisbrook.
  2. Justin Suh (+3500): Former #1 ranked amateur Justin Suh has really found his footing as a professional. His last three starts he’s placed in the top-25 each time, including a T-5th at the Honda Classic and T-6th at the Players Championship. During that span, he’s tops in total strokes gained and second in SG: tee-to-green.
  3. Akshay Bhatia (+9000): 21-year-old phenom Akshay Bhatia comes off an impressive performance, placing runner-up at the Puerto Rico Open, his fourth made cut in four starts on the season. For the campaign, he’s tenth in strokes gained: approach, and he’s fourth in total strokes gained the last twelve rounds. He’s an intriguing option in the top 10/20 markets this week.


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