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Bourbon War Given 8-1 Odds to Win Belmont Stakes at One Sportsbook, 16-1 at Another

Dave Friedman

by Dave Friedman in Horse Racing News

Updated Mar 24, 2020 · 11:38 AM PDT

The Belmont Stakes
Belmont Park has the longest stretch run in horse racing. Photo by Dave Mock (flickr).
  • The Belmont Stakes will be run on Saturday
  • Tacitus and War of Will are the current favorites
  • Sportsbooks are unclear on the chances for Bourbon War, and that may offer value to bettors

The Belmont Stakes is an all-or-nothing sort of event. In years the Triple Crown is on the line, it is the most important horse race on the calendar. When the Triple Crown is not at stake, fewer people pay attention.

2019 Belmont Stakes Odds

Horse Odds at Sportsbook 1 Odds at Sportsbook 2
Tacitus +160 +200
War of Will +200 +250
Everfast +800 +800
Master Fencer +1100 +700
Spinoff +900 +1200
Intrepid Heart +1200 +800
Tax +1600 +1200
Sir Winston +1600 +1600
Bourbon War +1600 +800
Joevia +3300 +2500

Odds taken 06/03/19

This year, the Triple Crown got off to a bizarre start. Maximum Security got to the finish line first at the Kentucky Derby, but was disqualified, and Country House was named the winner. Neither ran in the Preakness, but War of Will (who took the brunt of Maximum Security’s swerving down the stretch in Louisville) won impressively.

Now we get ready for the Belmont. Last week, Everfast was gaining support in the futures prices, but now it’s Bourbon War that is attracting attention. He was a late entry into the Belmont, so should we jump on him now? The Belmont Stakes odds Tracker shows us how opinions are shifting. Let’s look at the latest numbers and see where we can find some value.

The Favorites: Tacitus & War of Will

Tacitus and War of Will are both very logical, and neither is going to make you rich.

Tacitus wasn’t great in the Kentucky Derby, but he got to the wire fourth, and experienced trouble during his run. He won two Derby preps, the Tampa Bay Derby, and Wood Memorial. He has been off for more than a month.

War of Will is slated to be the only horse this year to run in all three legs of the Triple Crown. That is difficult, three races in five weeks. After being interfered with at the Kentucky Derby, he impressively won the Preakness. He won two of three races at the Fairgrounds in New Orleans before running for the roses.

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Challenger: Bourbon War

There was a lot of hype around Bourbon War headed into the Preakness. He went off at 11/2 but finished eighth. His three prior races in Florida were pretty good, considering the competition was the likes of Maximum Security, Code of Honor, and Bodexpress. Though he still doesn’t have a significant win on his resume, anything more than 10/1 seems like pretty good value against this group of horses.

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Longshot: Intrepid Heart

Maybe this year’s Derby crop, or at least those that are running in the Belmont, aren’t that good. Intrepid Heart didn’t debut until February, won his first two races, and was the big favorite at Belmont Park’s Peter Pan Stakes on May 11. That race was a nightmare, where he got out slowly, then got bumped, and was very wide around the second turn. Trainer Todd Pletcher has won the Belmont Stakes three times. There is intrigue and a decent price available.

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