Upcoming Match-ups

Tiz The Law Now Odds-On Favorite to Win Kentucky Derby After Winning Belmont Stakes

Dave Friedman

by Dave Friedman in Horse Racing News

Updated Mar 11, 2021 · 12:01 PM PST

The Kentucky Derby text overlay on horse racing image
  • After romping in the Belmont Stakes Tiz The Law is a significant Kentucky Derby favorite
  • The rescheduled Run for the Roses is slated for September 5
  • Tiz The Law’s price creates significant value among other top contenders in future’s wagering

Tiz The Law easily won the Belmont Stakes. He had the best resume entering the first leg of this year’s Triple Crown, and ran like a heavy favorite is supposed to. Because of that somewhat predictable result, he is now an overwhelming favorite to win the Kentucky Derby. That’s a good thing if you like any other contender.

There are more than 10 weeks before as many as 20 three-year-olds will break from the starting gate at Churchill Downs. Ten weeks ago Tiz The Law was a Kentucky Derby contender, but not anything like -125. Just a couple of weeks ago he was one of several top candidates. Now the Kentucky Derby odds make him look like a cinch.

Charlatan, Nadal, and Maxfield, all primary rivals of Tiz The Law, are injured. In other words, horses can be fragile and Tiz The Law is no lock to be healthy in September. Additionally, nobody would have mentioned Gamine or Cezanne a month ago, and now they are right in the mix as top contenders.

This is a good time to bet. Tiz The Law is established and we can see the writing on the wall in terms of which of the other contenders are likely to improve and be a significant threat. However, it isn’t so clear that the odds are low and not worthwhile. Let’s check the current prices.

2020 Kentucky Derby Odds

Horse Odds
Tiz The Law -125
Honor A.P. +450
Authentic +750
Cezanne +1000
Dr Post +1400
Gouverneur Morris +1400
Mischevious Alex +1600
Gamine +1600
Independence Hall +2000
King Guillermo +2000
Cafe Pharoah +2000
Green Light Go +2500
Storm The Court +2500
Mo Hawk +2500
Enforceable +2500
Max Player +2500
Untitled +2500
Finnick The Fierce +2500

Odds taken June 23

Favorite: Tiz The Law

While the odds on Tiz The Law now reflect a 55% implied probability that he will win the Kentucky Derby, a ridiculous number this far out, he was brilliant again in the Belmont Stakes and you can not knock his resume.

YouTube video

He has won five of six career races and has three grade one victories to his credit. No other horse that ran in the Belmont Stakes has a grade one win. To play devil’s advocate, the Belmont was run with just one turn, he got a perfect trip, and five key contenders either missed the race because of injury or opted to run elsewhere. He has been brilliant. His level of competition is going to get tougher.

Top Contenders: Honor A.P and Authentic

Two top candidates from the west coast elected to run in the Santa Anita Derby instead of the Belmont. Both are eyeing the Kentucky Derby, and they have each had moments that are very impressive. Authentic beat Honor A.P. in March’s San Felipe Stakes.

YouTube video

Authentic was three for three after that victory, clocking quick times in each race. Trained by Bob Baffert, he looked like an elite candidate until Honor A.P. got the better of him June 6 in the Santa Anita Derby.

YouTube video

Honor A.P. was a hyped Kentucky Derby prospect late last year but got injured and didn’t run between mid-October and March. He probably needed the San Felipe, and was at his best in the Santa Anita Derby. His jockey, Hall of Famer Mike Smith, is going to ride Authentic in the Haskell Invitational on July 18 at Monmouth Park. Honor A.P. is not running in that race, and eventually, Smith will need to choose which top contender he wants to ride in September.

Longshots: Cezanne, Dr. Post, Gamine

Are you the type of person who likes to bet on which quarterback in the NFL draft will make the Pro Football Hall of Fame? Cezanne is the hype horse, the QB who was amazing in the combine, but doesn’t have a lot on his resume yet. He was purchased for an incredible $3.65 million but didn’t make his debut until early June. It went well.

YouTube video

Trained by Baffert, Cezanne may be the biggest beneficiary of the rescheduled Kentucky Derby. He has plenty of time to get experience and grow, and obviously talent is present.

Dr. Post equipped himself well in the Belmont Stakes, and the lightly raced colt trained by Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher and owned by Florida Panthers’ owner Vinnie Viola’s St. Elias Stable appears to have endurance.

The ultimate wildcard is Gamine. Only three fillies have ever won the Kentucky Derby, and she would need to run in a race against the boys to earn qualifying points between now and September in order to make the field. That said, she’s three for three and the same day Tiz The Law won the Belmont, Gamine looked a lot like 2009 Preakness winner Rachel Alexandra.

YouTube video

Gamine is also trained by Baffert, and it will be interesting if they are satisfied dominating the girls and aiming for the Kentucky Oaks, or they elect to challenge the boys.

The Bet: Authentic

All six horses mentioned in this article are legit. Tiz The Law should be the favorite right now, but the price is ridiculously low, and that means everybody else presents some value.

The best prices, when you consider resumes, are Authentic and Dr Post. Both have done little wrong, and the odds are pretty generous. Still over two months from the race we would like to be on horses who are likely to run, but for whatever reason aren’t viewed as favorites yet. Authentic was downgraded for a solid not spectacular Santa Anita Derby. Now he gets Smith and will probably be the favorite at the Haskell. If he wins the odds will go down.

Dr. Post ran great at the Belmont but was overshadowed by Tiz The Law. He has plenty of time to make that jump and has shown an ability to continue to improve.

We can’t recommend Gamine right now since the odds she runs aren’t that high. However, set up an alert for yourself. If you find out she is going to run against the boys, regardless of when and where, she would be doing so to try to get qualifying points, and then a wager would be very much justified.

Author Image