March Madness Odds – All of the Props, All of the Props!

I can forgive Edward Pola and George Wyle for suggesting that Christmas is the “most wonderful time of the year,” but only because they wrote the song in 1963 – well before Selection Sunday existed. For me, Christmas comes in March, and it starts with watching the reaction shots from bubble teams when they hear their names called. Now that the bracket is out, complete with surprises (Syracuse? Seriously??) and snubs (poor little Monmouth!), it’s time to delve into some props.

One of the hardest parts about setting March Madness odds the last few years has been differentiating between the “first four,” the “first round,” and the “second round.” Mercifully, the thing we all used to know as the “first round” (the epic 32-game slate on Thursday and Friday) is once again the “first round.” The “first four” – which had a brief stint as the “first round” – has been relegated where it belongs, to the realm of not-a-real-round.

I’ve got that straight. I’m sure you’ve got that straight. But there’s bound to still be confusion for some (and by “some” I mean Charles Barkley).

March Madness, in particular the first round, is synonymous with upsets and frantic finishes; Cinderellas learn whether the slipper fits and the nation’s clutchest shooters transfuse their blood for orange mocha frappuccinos. At least, that’s what we all remember from first rounds past. But just how common are upsets and buzzer-beaters, and how many should you expect this year?

We’ll explore all that and so much more in the veritable tome below. (Assist to Eric Thompson, whom you may know from the Oddcast, for some of the numbers.)

2016 MARCH MADNESS ODDS

1. FIRST ROUND PROPS

Over/under on the number of first-round games that will be decided by three points or fewer: 6.5

Everyone associates March Madness with buzzer-beaters, but they’re not as ubiquitous as the “One Shining Moment” montage would have you believe. Over the last five years, an average of 6.4 first-round games have ended as one possession affairs. Last year was a banner year, though, with ten. And given that “parity” is the buzziest of buzzwords this season, maybe we’ll see something similar.

Over/under on the number of first-round games decided with a lead change in last five seconds: 2.5

Over/under on the number of first-round upsets (by seed): 8

Again, upsets seem to happen at every turn. But there have only been an average of 7.8 upsets in the first round over the last five years, and that includes no. 9 seeds beating no. 8 seeds; even the committee thinks that those are supposed to be toss-ups.

Odds a no. 16 seed beats a no. 1 seed: 99/1

We all know that it’s never happened before. But it’s going to happen sooner or later. Why not this year when the top is as light as ever?

Odds a no. 15 seed beats a no. 2 seed: 20/1

A combined 121-7 record doesn’t look great, but again, parity is the name of the game this year. The Spartans don’t look vulnerable, but I can’t say the same for Nova and Xavier. (Sorry Big East fans.)

Odds on how many no. 5 seeds will win in the first round of the tournament:

None: 60/1

One: 8/1

Two: 11/5

Three: 5/2

Four: 9/2

The sexy 12-over-5 upset pick hasn’t paid off as well lately. It was anomalous in its heyday.

2. TOURNAMENT PROPS

There are some scorers in the tourney this year. By that I mean, there is some Buddy Hield in the tourney this year. Dude can straight up drop buckets, and he doesn’t just do it against second-tier competition. He had 46 against Kansas (albeit in three OTs) and 39 against Iowa State.

Don’t sleep on Iona’s AJ English, either; he averaged over 22 per game, scored 45 against a solid Monmouth team (in 40 minutes), and gets the defensively suspect Cyclones in the first round.

Over/under on the highest-scoring game in the tournament: 182.5

The highest games over the last handful of seasons have averaged right around 181 PPG. This year’s O/U gets upped a bit to reflect the fact that Iowa State is playing Iona in the first round. God help us if they go to OT. They might shatter that number.

Over/under on the largest margin of victory of in the tournament: 40.5

Odds it will come from a no. 1 vs no. 16 game? As Larry David would say, “pretty, pretty good!”

Odds on whether a team seeded no. 12 or higher will make the Sweet 16: 51/4

Did I mention this is the year of parity? Can someone duplicate Florida Gulf Coast’s effort of a few years back and destroy a few brackets on the way? Look at teams like Iona or Green Bay to possibly shoot their way to the second weekend.

Odds on how many no. 1 seeds will make the Final Four:

Four: 7/1

Three: 2/1

Two: 7/4

One: 16/3

None: 26/1

Over/under on the sum of the seeds that reach the Final Four (e.g. four no. 1 seeds would equal a sum of four): 13.5

The average over the last eight years has been just over 13. All it takes is a 2013 Wichita State or a 2014 UConn type to hit that number, and with the field as wide open as ever, don’t expect a repeat of 2008 when all four one-seeds made it.

Odds on which conference will win the most games in the tournament:

Big 12: 5/2

ACC: 3/1

Pac-12: 7/2

Big Ten: 4/1

Big East: 19/1

The ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, and Pac-12 each got seven bids. The Big 12 has the best average seed (4.17), the Big Ten (somewhat surprisingly) has the worst (5.5). Could the Big East, which only has five teams in the field, pull the upset? Not likely, with no number-ones and an average seeding of 5.6.

Odds on which conference will produce the National Champion:

Big 12: 9/4

ACC: 11/4

Big Ten: 13/2

Pac-12: 7/1

Big East: 11/1

SEC: 19/1

FIELD: 25/1

No surprise this looks a lot like the prop above. But the Pac-12 tumbles in this one. It’s a super-deep conference, but Oregon and Utah are flawed teams that aren’t National Championship material. 

3. BROADCAST/OBAMA PROPS 

Barkley’s inability to pronounce someone’s name: 3/1

Barkley’s college basketball “expertise”: 4/1

Barkley’s weight: 9/2

Barkley’s golf game: 8/1

Barkley’s “One Shining Moment” ad: 12/1

Everyone loves piling on Sir Charles. There’s just so much material to build with.

Over/under on the number of players’ or coaches’ names Barkley mispronounces on-air during the tournament: 5.5

You gotta figure at least one per day over the first round. Maybe he’ll get it together after that when everyone’s a bit more familiar. 

Odds of Barkley uses the word “dumb” or “stupid” during the first day of the tournament: 1/2

Odds on which of Barkley’s in-studio partners will be the first to make a fat joke about him:

Kenny Smith: 2/1

Doug Gottlieb: 5/1

Ernie Johnson: 5/1

Clark Kellogg: 5/1

Greg Gumbel: 10/1

FIELD: 9/1

Gumbel’s no Kate Moss, himself, if you know what I’m saying. 

Over/under on the number of times Barkley will refer to Donald Trump on-air during the tournament: 1.5

Odds that Barkley picks the correct National Champion: 8/1

Sir Charles played it safe this year, picking UNC and Kansas to reach the finals. He’s got as good a chance as anyone, really.

Odds that President Obama picks the correct National Champion: 9/1

Obama usually plays it safe when it comes to the champ. But with no real standouts this year, I can’t give him better odds than that. 

Odds Obama picks a no. 1 seed as National Champion: 1/1

I could definitely see him rolling with Michigan State, who should have been a no. 1 seed, but that’s a story for another article. 

Over/under on the number of first-round upsets on Obama’s bracket (by seeding): 6

He always has one or two per region. 

O/U on the number of times Bill Raftery uses the following expressions during the tournament:

Send it in: 8.5

The kiss: 8

Nickel-dimer: 7.5

Onions: 5.5

The broadcast props don’t lend themselves to the same tried-and-true analysis, but whaddya think? At least 0.5 times per game, right? He’s probably going to call about ten games over the tourney.  

(Photo credit: Max Goldberg (flickr) [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/legalcode]. Photo has been cropped.)