Upcoming Match-ups

2020 MLB Win Percentages Replace Win Totals: Who Are the Best Bets in NL?

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in MLB Baseball

Apr 7, 2020 · 8:03 PM PDT

Freddie Freeman at the plate
Oddsmakers predict regression for Freddie Freeman and the Braves in this uncertain 2020 MLB season. Photo by Arturo Pardavila III (flickr).
  • The uncertainty caused by the coronavirus has led to sportsbooks adjusting the types of MLB futures on offer
  • Instead of over/under win totals, betting sites are offering win percentage O/Us
  • Which National League teams are good bets to go over and under their projections? 

Winning percentages have replaced win totals for the 2020 MLB season.

The uncertainty about when the baseball season will begin is forcing oddsmakers to improvise. Normally, sportsbooks are asking bettors to make a play on the Los Angeles Dodgers’ established 2020 MLB win totals.

This season, the betting line is based on win percentage, which eliminates any concerns about the length of the season.

2020 National League Win Percentage Over/Unders

Team Over Odds Under Odds
Arizona Diamondbacks Over 51.5 -112 Under 51.5 -112
Atlanta Braves Over 56 -112 Under 56 -112
Chicago Cubs Over 53 -112 Under 53 -112
Cincinnati Reds Over 52.5 -112 Under 52.5 -112
Colorado Rockies Over 45 -112 Under 45 -112
Los Angeles Dodgers Over 62.5 -112 Under 62.5 -112
Miami Marlins Over 40 -112 Under 40 -112
Milwaukee Brewers Over 51 -112 Under 51 -112
New York Mets Over 53 -112 Under 53 -112
Philadelphia Phillies Over 52.5 -112 Under 52.5 -112
Pittsburgh Pirates Over 42 -112 Under 42 -112
San Diego Padres Over 50.5 -112 Under 50.5 -112
San Francisco Giants Over 42.5 -112 Under 42.5 -112
St. Louis Cardinals Over 53 -112 Under 53 -112
Washington Nationals Over 55 -112 Under 55 -112

Odds taken April 7th. See the American League win percentages here. 

For example, the Dodgers are assigned 62.5 as their benchmark. In a 162-game season, it would require 103 wins to hit the over.

Braves New World

A .556 (90-72) mark in 2018 marked an 18-game turnaround for the Atlanta Braves and won them the NL East Division title. The consensus was that the Braves had overachieved in 2018 and would come back to earth last season.

Instead, Atlanta went .599 (97-65) and repeated as division champs. Again in 2020, though, the naysayers are once more anticipating a downward turn by the Braves. This time, they might have a valid point.

Atlanta took some key hits in terms of lost personnel since last season ended. Third baseman Josh Donaldson, a former American League MVP, packed up his 37 home runs and 94 RBI and headed to the Minnesota Twins in exchange for a franchise-record four-year, $92 million contract.

Two-fifths of Atlanta’s starting rotation also left via free agency in former AL Cy Young Award-winner Dallas Keuchel (Chicago White Sox) and Julio Teheran (Los Angeles Angels).

Atlanta will try to fill that void with Cole Hamels and Felix Hernandez. Hamels showed up to spring training with a shoulder injury. Hernandez, a former AL Cy Young Award-winner, has battled a series of injuries over the past four seasons. It’s somewhat surprising that King Felix didn’t abdicate in favor of retirement.

Pick: Atlanta Braves under 56 (-112)

Diamondbacks Will Strike

Most sportsbooks pegged the Diamondbacks to win between 83-85 games this season. Last season, Arizona was 85-77. That works out to a winning percentage of .525. An 84-win campaign would be good enough to push Arizona over the of 51.5 mark that’s been put forth by oddsmakers.

On paper, the Diamondbacks look to be a better team than they were a year ago. They signed three-time World Series ace Madison Bumgarner as a free agent. That’s a double whammy. The move strengthens the Diamondback while weakening the Giants, an NL West Division rival.

Adding Bumgarner to Robbie Ray, Luke Weaver, Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen gives Arizona a stellar starting rotation. With his newly-discovered calf-roping skills, Bumgarner should lasso the Diamondbacks a few more wins in 2020.

The Diamondbacks also acquired outfielder Starling Marte. He posted career highs in 2019 with 23 home runs and 82 RBI. Marte slashed .295/.342/.503 last season. He’s stolen 58 bases over the past two campaigns.

Expect an uptick in the wins column from Arizona, making the Diamondbacks a solid over play.

Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks over 51.5 (-112)


coivd-19 sports timeline featured image

Author Image