- The uncertainty caused by the coronavirus has led to sportsbooks adjusting the types of MLB futures on offer
- Instead of over/under win totals, betting sites are offering win percentage O/Us
- Which National League teams are good bets to go over and under their projections?
Winning percentages have replaced win totals for the 2020 MLB season.
The uncertainty about when the baseball season will begin is forcing oddsmakers to improvise. Normally, sportsbooks are asking bettors to make a play on the Los Angeles Dodgers’ established 2020 MLB win totals.
This season, the betting line is based on win percentage, which eliminates any concerns about the length of the season.
2020 National League Win Percentage Over/Unders
|Team||Over Odds||Under Odds|
|Arizona Diamondbacks||Over 51.5 -112||Under 51.5 -112|
|Atlanta Braves||Over 56 -112||Under 56 -112|
|Chicago Cubs||Over 53 -112||Under 53 -112|
|Cincinnati Reds||Over 52.5 -112||Under 52.5 -112|
|Colorado Rockies||Over 45 -112||Under 45 -112|
|Los Angeles Dodgers||Over 62.5 -112||Under 62.5 -112|
|Miami Marlins||Over 40 -112||Under 40 -112|
|Milwaukee Brewers||Over 51 -112||Under 51 -112|
|New York Mets||Over 53 -112||Under 53 -112|
|Philadelphia Phillies||Over 52.5 -112||Under 52.5 -112|
|Pittsburgh Pirates||Over 42 -112||Under 42 -112|
|San Diego Padres||Over 50.5 -112||Under 50.5 -112|
|San Francisco Giants||Over 42.5 -112||Under 42.5 -112|
|St. Louis Cardinals||Over 53 -112||Under 53 -112|
|Washington Nationals||Over 55 -112||Under 55 -112|
Odds taken April 7th. See the American League win percentages here.
For example, the Dodgers are assigned 62.5 as their benchmark. In a 162-game season, it would require 103 wins to hit the over.
Braves New World
A .556 (90-72) mark in 2018 marked an 18-game turnaround for the Atlanta Braves and won them the NL East Division title. The consensus was that the Braves had overachieved in 2018 and would come back to earth last season.
Instead, Atlanta went .599 (97-65) and repeated as division champs. Again in 2020, though, the naysayers are once more anticipating a downward turn by the Braves. This time, they might have a valid point.
— Byron Thomas-Social Media Lead (@nflmlbrumors) April 2, 2020
Atlanta took some key hits in terms of lost personnel since last season ended. Third baseman Josh Donaldson, a former American League MVP, packed up his 37 home runs and 94 RBI and headed to the Minnesota Twins in exchange for a franchise-record four-year, $92 million contract.
Two-fifths of Atlanta’s starting rotation also left via free agency in former AL Cy Young Award-winner Dallas Keuchel (Chicago White Sox) and Julio Teheran (Los Angeles Angels).
Atlanta will try to fill that void with Cole Hamels and Felix Hernandez. Hamels showed up to spring training with a shoulder injury. Hernandez, a former AL Cy Young Award-winner, has battled a series of injuries over the past four seasons. It’s somewhat surprising that King Felix didn’t abdicate in favor of retirement.
Pick: Atlanta Braves under 56 (-112)
Diamondbacks Will Strike
Most sportsbooks pegged the Diamondbacks to win between 83-85 games this season. Last season, Arizona was 85-77. That works out to a winning percentage of .525. An 84-win campaign would be good enough to push Arizona over the of 51.5 mark that’s been put forth by oddsmakers.
On paper, the Diamondbacks look to be a better team than they were a year ago. They signed three-time World Series ace Madison Bumgarner as a free agent. That’s a double whammy. The move strengthens the Diamondback while weakening the Giants, an NL West Division rival.
— CNN (@CNN) February 24, 2020
Adding Bumgarner to Robbie Ray, Luke Weaver, Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen gives Arizona a stellar starting rotation. With his newly-discovered calf-roping skills, Bumgarner should lasso the Diamondbacks a few more wins in 2020.
The Diamondbacks also acquired outfielder Starling Marte. He posted career highs in 2019 with 23 home runs and 82 RBI. Marte slashed .295/.342/.503 last season. He’s stolen 58 bases over the past two campaigns.
Expect an uptick in the wins column from Arizona, making the Diamondbacks a solid over play.
Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks over 51.5 (-112)