Bieber Enters Top-Three in AL Cy Young Odds; Is Indians Ace Good Value in Short Season?
- Shane Bieber’s AL Cy Young Odds are now at +900 after opening at +1500 in February
- Bieber is coming off a career best season and finished fourth in AL Cy Young voting in 2019
- Is he a good bet at his new price or does someone else present better value?
Cleveland Indians starter Shane Bieber finished fourth in AL Cy Young voting in 2019, yet despite his stellar season, he opened with lengthy +1500 odds to win the award this year.
That price tag didn’t last long as sharp action has shortened his odds steadily since February to where it currently stands today.
2020 AL Cy Young Award Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Gerrit Cole (Yankees) | +286 |
| Justin Verlander (Astros) | +575 |
| Shane Bieber (Indians) | +900 |
| Mike Clevinger (Indians) | +1175 |
| Tyler Glasnow (Rays) | +1238 |
| Lucas Giolito (White Sox) | +1288 |
| Blake Snell (Rays) | +1325 |
| Jose Berrios (Twins) | +1600 |
| Charlie Morton (Rays) | +1925 |
| Zack Greinke (Astors) | +2150 |
| Corey Kluber (Rangers) | +2225 |
| James Paxton (Yankees) | +2700 |
| Shohei Ohtani (Angels) | +2750 |
| … | … |
| Eduardo Rodriguez (Red Sox) | +4375 |
Odds taken April 29th.
Bieber now carries the third-shortest AL Cy Young odds behind only last year’s winner Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole, a.k.a. the $324 million dollar man.
Bieber has already established himself as one of the AL’s best starting pitchers in just two seasons, but is his new price justified?
Bieber was a Beast in 2019
The Indians ace is coming off a career-best campaign in which he posted sparkling numbers across the board. He went 15-8 with a 3.28 ERA, 3.32 FIP and 259 strikeouts in just over 214 innings.
Remember when Shane Bieber was our 5th starter?#CyBieber | #RallyTogether pic.twitter.com/uiL5h3oNVF
— Cleveland Guardians (@CleGuardians) August 10, 2019
He ranked fifth in WAR (5.6), third in win probability added (2.97) and was named All-Star Game MVP in front of the hometown Cleveland fans. Not too shabby for a sophomore.
Five years ago, Shane Bieber was a college walk-on, and only because another player went pro and opened up a spot for him. And now, he's striking out the side in the All-Star Game as a capacity crowd chants, "Let's go, Bieber!" An incredible story.
— Zack Meisel (@ZackMeisel) July 10, 2019
Furthermore, Bieber showed great improvement from his rookie season, increasing his K/9 average, reducing his walk rate, and generating more soft contact.
It’s important to note that once baseball does return, it will be a shortened season, which could benefit Bieber. He was a fast starter in 2019 winning 12 of his first 16 decisions and a hot start will be crucial to capturing the award in 2020.
As for his new price, it doesn’t offer anywhere near the value in once did. At +1500, he’s an auto bet, but at +900, you should look probably look elsewhere.
Is Cole a Lock?
Most people will argue that Cole was robbed of Cy Young honors last season but that doesn’t mean you should run out to bet him at +286. Yes, he’s the ace of arguably the most talented team in baseball, but the opportunity cost at such a short number is extremely high.
https://twitter.com/AugustineMLB/status/1255258206726750210
If you’re looking for a reason to fade him, ignore that he won his last 15 decisions in 2019 and that he led MLB with a ridiculous 324 strikeouts. Instead, focus on the fact that he’s started slowly in two of the past three seasons.
Last year, he was 5-5 before going on a tear over the last four months and, in 2017, he started 2-5. Another slow start in 2020 could seriously jeopardize his Cy Young prospects.
Rodriguez Offers Real Value
If you’re avoiding the top of the board like I am, that means you’re looking to strike it rich with one of the longshots. Well look no further than Eduardo Rodriguez. He’s the Red Sox de facto ace with Chris Sale on the shelf and he finished a respectable sixth in AL Cy Young voting last season.
Eduardo Rodriguez, Nasty 95mph Two Seamer. 😨 pic.twitter.com/BByXyDuBB1
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 10, 2019
The left-hander made a career high 34 starts in 2019 and went 19-6 with a 3.81 ERA. He’s one of the best in the AL at forcing soft contact and has been drawing rave reviews from former Cy Young-winner Pedro Martinez.
Eduardo Rodriguez has a new slider this year. His teachers? Chris Sale and Pedro Martinez.
— Chris Mason (@ByChrisMason) February 19, 2019
Martinez believes Rodriguez is poised for big things this season and could drastically improve his 9.43 K/9 rate. Also working in Rodriguez’s favor is a propensity for fast starts. Last season he won 13 of his first 17 decisions and a repeat effort this season could go a long way in helping cash a ticket at longer than 40/1.
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
