AL East 2020 Division Winner Odds and Best Bet
- The Yankees have been AL East favorites all off-season long
- Sportsbooks see the Rays as the only legitimate threat in the division
- Is it just a two horse race in the AL East? Bryan Thiel analyzes the odds
After finishing second in back-to-back years, the New York Yankees took the AL East in 2019. The Bronx Bombers certainly lived up to their nickname too, finishing second in the majors in home runs.
They also won the off-season, shoring up their rotation by landing Gerrit Cole and, as a result, enter the shortened 2020 season as short favorites to win the AL East for a second straight year.
2020 AL East Odds
| Team | 2019 Record | Odds at Caesars |
|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | 103-59 | -300 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 96-66 | +325 |
| Boston Red Sox | 84-78 | +900 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 67-95 | +2000 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 54-108 | +10000 |
Odds as of July 21st.
The Yankees odds are not as short as they once were. In February, when everyone assumed the season would be 162 games long, their average odds to take the AL East were -800. That number has come way down, as our 2020 MLB Divisional Odds tracker now has them at -298 and Caesars, specifically, has them at -300.
The only team that’s benefited, though, is the Tampa Bay Rays. In that same timeframe, they’ve gone from +600 to +310. A big reason for that is the Yankees’ health.
Health Is Key in 60-Game Season
If the Covid-19 pandemic helped anyone, it was the Yankees.
Luis Severino, Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, James Paxton, and Gary Sanchez were all significant question marks in March. Everyone except Severino (Tommy John surgery) is back, with DJ LeMahieu and Luis Cessa looming after bouts with COVID-19.
Aaron Judge (stiff neck) is "getting treatment, getting a little more work," according to Aaron Boone. They decided it was wise not to push it for today's intrasquad.
— Bryan Hoch ⚾️ (@BryanHoch) July 12, 2020
The one question mark is closer Aroldis Chapman and his own COVID-19 diagnosis.
Yankees 2019 Injured List
| Player | 2019 IL Trips | Days on IL |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | 1 | 62 |
| James Paxton | 1 | 26 |
| Miguel Andujar | 2 | 174 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 2 | 164 |
| Gary Sanchez | 2 | 32 |
While they’re healthy now, the names above have battled the injury bug throughout their careers.
Judge and Sanchez missed 50 and 65 days respectively due to injury in 2018. Sanchez missed another 27 days in 2017 and Judge missed 19 in 2016. Andujar had surgery to repair his torn labrum last season, which is a major injury to come back from.
Pitching Will Be Key in AL East
The injuries carry over to their pitching staff as James Paxton had lengthy injury stints in 2017 and ’18. Masahiro Tanaka is recovering from a concussion following a scary incident in an intrasquad game and is expected to miss his first start.
Yankees 2019 Starters’ Stats
| Pitcher | Starts | Innings per Start | ERA | WHIP | K/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerrit Cole | 33 | 6.2 | 2.50 | 0.895 | 326/48 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | 31 | 5.2 | 4.45 | 1.242 | 149/40 |
| James Paxton | 29 | 5.1 | 3.82 | 1.281 | 186/55 |
| JA Happ | 30 | 5.1 | 4.91 | 1.295 | 140/49 |
| Jordan Montgomery* | 36 | 5.0 | 3.91 | 1.259 | 172/63 |
*Denotes career numbers.
Cole is the best pitcher in the AL East, but the Rays’ Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, and Charlie Morton (injury concerns and all) are a better top three.
Tanaka’s injury makes things tricky, but we think @JackCurryYES has the first few weeks of the Yankees rotation all figured out pic.twitter.com/wtrEiDOdpz
— Talkin' Yanks (@TalkinYanks) July 17, 2020
Both teams have excellent bullpens, but the Yankees can’t afford more than one missed start from Tanaka.
What Will Rays’ Offense Look Like?
We ask this every year, and then Kevin Cash and company figure out a way to manufacture runs.
In a shortened season, with a rotation and bullpen that can challenge for the AL East, it’s even more important.
Hunter Renfroe, Yoshitomo Tsutsugo 2020 FanGraphs Projections
| .232 | Average | .251 |
| 10 | Home Runs | 8 |
| 27 | RBI | 21 |
| .293 | On-Base Percentage | .353 |
| .461 | Slugging Percentage | .468 |
| 0.3 | WAR | 0.7 |
The Rays always cover up their losses. So is it it surprising that the combination of Renfroe and Tsutsugo are just a slight downgrade from Avisail Garcia and Tommy Pham? The two of them getting off to good starts is key, especially considering Austin Meadows’ COVID-19 diagnosis.
After returning from Japan, it's clear to #Rays hitting coach Chad Mottola that Yoshi Tsutsugo is more comfortable & has a definite plan. pic.twitter.com/yjNIkoq4KB
— Rays Radio (@RaysRadio) July 16, 2020
There’s also a lot of intrigue surrounding top prospect Wander Franco, but the likelihood is that he stays on the taxi squad.
Yankees, Rays Will Duke It Out in AL East
While the Blue Jays are everyone’s pick as a surprise playoff team, they aren’t taking the AL East; they’ll be in a dog fight for a Wild Card spot … with the Yankees.
Over a 162-game season, it’s easy to trust the Yanks to cover up their injuries. But in a shortened season where each game matters nearly three-times as much, there’s far less risk with the Rays.
Expect both to make the playoffs, but Tampa Bay takes the division.
The Pick: Tampa Bay Rays (+325)
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
