NL East Division Winner Odds and Best Bet
- The Atlanta Braves are currently favored to win the NL East
- World Series champion Washington is second, with the Mets and Phillies close behind
- Can the Braves make it three-straight NL East titles?
The NL East has been the Atlanta Braves’ division the last two seasons, taking the division by a combined 12 games over that stretch. But the teams around them have gotten better. The Nationals won the World Series, the Mets have a strong front end of the rotation despite losing Noah Syndergaard, and the Phillies have a dynamic offense.
So could the clock be ticking on Atlanta? Here’s where the odds to win the East stand with Opening Day (July 23rd) fast approaching.
2020 NL East Odds
| Team | 2019 Record | Odds Per Caesars Casino |
|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | 97-65 | +160 |
| Washington Nationals | 93-69 | +240 |
| New York Mets | 86-76 | +300 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 81-81 | +400 |
| Miami Marlins | 57-105 | +10000 |
Odds as of July 14th.
The Nationals’ championship hasn’t done much for their 2020 MLB divisional odds since February. Atlanta has been the established favorite in 2020, although the announcement of a 60-game season has seen them sink to their longest odds, on average.
In terms of order, there has been no movement in the NL East. All off-season long, the odds hierarchy has been: Atlanta, Washington, New York, Philadelphia, with Miami a distant fifth.
Pitching Could Determine NL East
Washington rode its wealth of high-end pitching through the playoffs, and it should benefit the team in a shortened season.
The Nationals can roll out the elite trio of Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer and Patrick Corbin. With Joe Ross opting out of the season, the back end will be comprised of a combination of Anibal Sanchez, Erick Fedde, and/or Austin Voth.
🚨 @AROD's TOP 5 PITCHERS TO WATCH IN 2020 🚨
1. Jacob deGrom – @Mets
2. Gerrit Cole – @Yankees
3. Max Scherzer – @Nationals
4. Stephen Strasburg – @Nationals
5. Justin Verlander – @astros pic.twitter.com/UrUSe50Ll0— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) July 14, 2020
Voth’s projections were used to forecast Washington’s 2020 season.
2020 Starting Rotation Averages
| Team | Innings Pitched | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | 58 | 4.27 | 1.34 | 8.17 | 3.01 | 4.32 |
| Miami Marlins | 58 | 4.73 | 1.40 | 7.60 | 3.38 | 4.79 |
| New York Mets | 64.1 | 4.38 | 1.336 | 8.15 | 2.89 | 4.34 |
| Washington Nationals | 65.2 | 4.14 | 1.26 | 9.15 | 2.87 | 4.19 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 62 | 4.68 | 1.35 | 8.21 | 3.03 | 4.78 |
Washington has a significant advantage over the rest of the NL East when it comes to starting pitching. Sanchez and Voth are bogging these numbers down, with FanGraphs projecting a 5.24 ERA for Sanchez, who has been much better in recent years. Since 2018 (which coincided with leaving the woeful Tigers), the 36-year-old has posted a 3.39 ERA and 1.186 WHIP in just over 300 innings.
FanGraphs also has six Braves’ pitchers projected to make at least six starts. They have five of them finishing with an ERA over 4.00. They also paint a less-than-exciting picture for the rest of the Mets rotation, which is a bit surprising considering how highly some think of their starters.
Can Albies, Acuna Jr Be the Great Equalizers?
While Washington has a good offense anchored by Trea Turner and Juan Soto, this is where the Braves make up ground.
After signing Marcell Ozuna in the off-season to insulate a lineup that lost Josh Donaldson, that move becomes even more important with Nick Markakis opting out. Yesterday’s addition of Yasiel Puig adds to an already deep batting order.
But, realistically, the Braves will only go as far as their two young stars – Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuna Jr – will carry them in the NL East race.
Albies, Acuna Jr 2020 Projections
| .287 | Average | .283 |
| 9 | Home Runs | 14 |
| 31 | RBI | 33 |
| 33 | Runs | 39 |
| .344 | On-Base Percentage | .363 |
| .491 | Slugging Percentage | .529 |
| 1.7 | WAR | 1.5 |
The Braves and Phillies are the only teams in the NL East projected to have two players finish with 30-plus RBI.
Yasiel Puig close to signing with the #Braves. My initial thoughts:@CBSSportsHQ pic.twitter.com/vhAOtyLwJf
— Jim Bowden⚾️🏈 (@JimBowdenGM) July 14, 2020
Atlanta actually has four on the list, with Ozuna and Freddie Freeman making it. Conceivably, you could swap Freeman out due to his battle with COVID-19 and slide in the freshly signed Puig.
Don’t Count Out Phillies’ Bats in NL East
While their pitching isn’t overly intimidating, Philadelphia’s offense certainly can be.
I’ve already discussed how a motivated Bryce Harper can impact a shortened season. If Rhys Hoskins can bounce-back after a slight dip in 2019, then an offense that features Harper, Hoskins, JT Realmuto, and Didi Gregorius can definitely do some damage.
Didi Gregorious and Rhys Hoskins practicing their air hi-fives after Didi’s grand slam today
Bryce Harper 😂
“I think the air hi-five is going to come back and be the coolest thing in baseball or sports this year”
🎥 #Phillies pic.twitter.com/x4BP4JbIGs
— John Clark (@JClarkNBCS) July 8, 2020
But in a shortened season where pitching plays an important role, the Phillies will battle the Braves for second, meaning the Nationals take the division.
With the momentum of a World Series title and a daunting trio atop their rotation, Washington is built for a 60-game season.
The Pick: Washington Nationals (+240)
2020 MLB divisional odds coverage:
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
