Astros vs Reds Picks, Predictions & Splits (May 8)

• The Reds are -135 moneyline favorites over the Astros tonight in Interleague play
• Houston’s pitching staff holds a woeful 5.82 team ERA
• See the best Astros vs Reds picks and predictions, plus the latest betting splits for May 8, below

The Cincinnati Reds (20-18) welcome the Houston Astros (15-23) to Great American Ball Park tonight, for the opening matchup of their Interleague series. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10 PM ET, with the Reds listed as favorites in the MLB odds.

Both teams enter in rough form, with Cincy having dropped five straight, and Houston fresh off two losses in their last three outings. Despite the Reds recent skid, I’m betting on them to bounce back in this contest. Keep reading to find out why, plus see the rest of my picks and predictions, along with the latest betting splits for the May 8th game.

Astros vs Reds Picks

• Reds Moneyline (-135 at Bet365)
• Over 9 Runs (-110 at Bet365)

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My two favorite Astros vs Reds picks are the Cincinnati moneyline and over 9 runs. Digging into the MLB starting pitchers and lineups, the Astros’ lineup has been productive, boasting a .261 team batting average and a .767 OPS compared to the Reds’ .220 average and .693 OPS. However, the Astros struggle heavily in run prevention. They arrive with a 5.82 team ERA and a 1.63 WHIP. Those pitching issues extend to the late innings, where the Astros’ bullpen has surrendered 115 earned runs over 164.2 innings for a 6.28 bullpen ERA. The Reds’ pitching staff is far more stable, owning a 4.61 overall ERA.

Given the Astros’ metrics on the mound, backing over 9 runs makes a lot of sense. Astros probable starter Mike Burrows has labored throughout his 37.2 innings of work, posting a 5.97 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP while surrendering 1.9 home runs and 11.7 hits per 9 innings. Even a middle-of-the-pack Reds offense should manufacture runs against Burrows and the Astros’ relief corps.

Nick Lodolo vs Mike Burrows Stats

Over Burrow’s last 10 appearances, the right-hander posted a 1.65 WHIP and is allowing opponents to hit .318 against him. While he manages 8.60 strikeouts per 9 innings and 3.1 BB/9, his tendency to allow constant traffic on the basepaths limits his effectiveness. He averages 5.1 innings per start, meaning the Astros’ bullpen will likely be called upon relatively early. This presents a favorable opportunity for the Reds’ batters to generate run production.

Astros vs Reds Stats

On the surface, the Reds’ home batting average of .216 (29th) is low, but their contact quality tells a different story. They rank third in home average exit velocity at 90.1 mph. Against a 30th-ranked Astros pitching staff that struggles to limit hard contact, the Reds are primed for offensive success. Furthermore, the Reds hold an advantage on the basepaths, averaging nearly twice as many stolen bases per game at home compared to the Astros on the road.

Astros vs Reds Predictions

• Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases (-118 at Caesars)

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Moving over to the MLB props market, where I see excellent value in backing Yordan Alvarez to eclipse 1.5 total bases. Alvarez doesn’t have any history versus Cincy starter Nick Lodolo per our MLB batter vs pitcher stats, but he leads the Astros with a 1.061 OPS, a .319 batting average, 12 home runs, and 27 RBIs. With odds at -118, Alvarez is in a strong position to tally at least two bases, whether from a single extra-base hit or stringing together multiple singles.

Astros vs Reds Odds

Odds as of May 8. Claim the Bet365 promo code to bet on MLB today.

Astros vs Reds Splits

As for the MLB public betting splits, the data aligns with my prediction of a Reds victory. The Reds are currently drawing 65.0% of the moneyline tickets and 61.8% of the total money wagered. Bettors are trusting the Reds at Great American Ball Park and fading the Astros’ struggling pitching staff.

My recommendation to back the Over is also heavily supported by the market. A significant 73.8% of the tickets and 72.9% of the overall handle are banking on a high-scoring affair. Bettors are comfortable investing their money on offensive production with Burrows and the Astros’ bullpen taking the mound.