Best MLB Player Prop Picks for Tuesday, June 20, Including a +480 Home Run Prop

• MLB player props are live for Tuesdays MLB betting slate, June 20th
• The Twins have the highest strikeout rate in the MLB against right-handed pitchers
• Check out Tuesday’s best MLB player prop picks, below

Tuesdays MLB schedule features a full 15-game slate, which gives us plenty of opportunity to lock in some MLB player-prop bangers.

Our first pick will be in the Red Sox vs Twins game, and we will be backing Boston pitcher Kutter Crawford to go over his strikeout prop of 4.5. For some reason, FanDuel is giving this to us for plus-money. Everybody thank FanDuel for this gift.

Best MLB Player Props – Tuesday, June 20th

For our first pick, we are taking Kutter Crawford to record at least five strikeouts in his matchup against the Twins. FanDuel is nice enough to give us this prop for +104 odds, which we will gladly take advantage of.

Odds as of June 19 at FanDuel. Get a FanDuel promo code to wager on Tuesday’s MLB player props or check out this list of sports betting apps.

MLB Player Prop #1: Kutter Crawford Over 4.5 Strikeouts

To be honest with you, this is more of a fade of the Twins than it is Crawford having electric stuff or anything like that. On the season as a whole, the Twins strikeout the most in the entire MLB at 27.1%, specifically against RHP. A team strikeout rate above 25% is silly, and the Twins are all the way up over 27%. For reference of how much of an outlier the Twins are when it comes to striking out against righties, the second-highest team is the Athletics at 25.8%. Even if you isolate this to the past 14 days as opposed to the entire season, this actually looks even better for us, as the Twins have struck out 30% of the time in the past 14 days (overall, not specific to RHP).

Looking at the Twins batters is truly astounding. I generally consider any player that strikes out 25% and above to be a strikeout guy, and the Twins have eight players with over 100 ABs who strike out over 25% of the time, seven of whom strikeout over 30%. Obviously, we will need to wait for the lineups to be announced to see exactly how many strikeout guys will actually be in the lineup, but there isn’t any way the Twins could have fewer than five, which is the number that I like to target.

Kutter Crawford is aptly named because his cutter is pretty nasty pic.twitter.com/xEOdOdr8Ov

— Ben Palmer (@benjpalmer) April 11, 2022

As far as Crawford goes, he is pretty average when it comes to striking batters out. He averages 1.02 K/inning, which puts him in the 52nd percentile. He fares slightly better at swinging strike rate, which is at 13% (75th percentile), but below-average at whiff rate, which is 26.5% (30th percentile). So, all in all, an average strikeout pitcher. Luckily, thanks to the Twins striking out at a historic rate, an average strikeout pitcher should be able to get 5+ Ks, cashing this for us.

Pick: Kutter Crawford Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+104)

MLB Player Prop #2: Nolan Jones to Hit a Home Run

Obviously, when you take a home run prop you are going to want to lower your wager size compared to a strikeout prop. With that said, Jones to smack one deep is my favorite home run prop of the day. First things first, Great American Ballpark, the home stadium of the Reds, is one of the most hitter friendly ballparks in the entire MLB. Not only that, but the weather for Tuesday specifically is supposed to be juicy for home runs to be hit as well. This is taking into account the temperature, wind, and ballpark dimensions. The same was true for Monday’s game between these two teams, and a total of four home runs were hit. Unfortunately none from Jones, but I’ll sign up for four home runs once again for Tuesday’s game.

While Jones only has four home runs on the year, there is reason to believe that the power is going to come. For starters, he was called up on May 26th, so he only has 78 ABs on the year. Looking at his advanced numbers is where things really start to look good, though. All of this information is according to FanGraphs. The two numbers I like to look at for judging a hitters power is ISO rate and barrel rate. For context, FanGraphs considers an ISO rate 20% and above to be considered “great”, and anything 25% and above to be considered “excellent.” Well, Jones has an ISO rate of 24%, and if he had enough plate appearances to qualify that would put him at 20th in the entire MLB, ahead of studs such as Ronald Acuna Jr, Mike Trout, and Nolan Arenado.

😱NOLAN JONES 472 FEET TO END THE GAME pic.twitter.com/CxilXikIM5

— Colorado Rockies (@Rockies) June 11, 2023

As for barrel rate, anything above 6% is considered “great”, and above 9% is considered “excellent.” Jones has a barrel rate of 14.9%, and that would put him at second in the MLB (only behind Aaron Judge), again if he had enough plate appearances to qualify. All in all, despite having only two home runs in his last ten games, there are enough reasons to think that a home run surge is coming from Jones, and there’s no better time to start than Tuesday!

Pick: Nolan Jones to Hit a Home Run (+480)

MLB Player Prop #3: Jordan Montgomery Under 4.5 Strikeouts

I am sorry to disappoint, but for our final pick we will have our only none +money banger of the slate as well. The good news is I absolutely love this play. One of my favorite storylines so far in this 2023 MLB season is how little the Nationals strikeout. These Nationals, who have a below-average offense by pretty much any statistical measure you want to look at, simply do not strikeout.

Their strikeout rate specifically against lefties is 18.2%, which is the third-lowest in the MLB. Looking at the last seven lefties that have gone up against the Nats, only one of them went over their strikeout prop, which was Braxton Garrett on 6/17. I mentioned above that the number I like to look at when it comes to players strikeout percent is 25%. Well, the Nats only have one qualified player that strikes out over 25% of the time against lefties, and that would be C.J. Abrams at 26.4%. So, that means they don’t have a single player above 30%, and he is also the only batter who strikes out even above 20%.

I will admit that looking at Montgomery’s splits will make you a little nervous for him to go under 4.5 strikeouts, as he has gone over this number in three straight games, and in 9/14 overall on the season. But, with that said, he also doesn’t have elite strikeout stuff either. His K/9 is 0.93 (38th percentile), his swinging strike rate is 10.2% (36th percentile), and his whiff rate is 27.8% (47th percentile).

Pick: Jordan Montgomery Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-108)