Cardinals (Kim) vs Padres (Lamet) Game 1 Picks and Odds – Sep. 30th

• The St Louis Cardinals are in the playoffs once again after clinching on the final day of the regular season
• St Louis faces the San Diego Padres in a best-of-three series with all games in San Diego
• See the odds and best bets for Game 1 (Wed., Sep 30th)

The St Louis Cardinals and San Diego Padres begin their Wild-Card round series on Wednesday, September 30th, at 5:00 pm ET.

This is the fourth time the two franchises have met in the opening round of the National League playoffs – the Cardinals have eliminated the Padres in all three previous meetings.

The Cardinals vs Padres  odds for Game 1 see the Friars sitting as considerable favorites despite some question marks on the mound.

St Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres Game 1 Odds

Odds as of September 29th.

Pitching Matchup

The St Louis Cardinals, as announced by Mike Schildt on Monday, will be going with Kwang Hyung Kim for Game 1. Kim gets the nod ahead of Jack Flaherty on the back of a stellar rookie season in which he posted a 1.62 ERA and allowed just 28 hits in 39 innings.

There’s uncertainty for the Padres. They are hopeful budding star Dinelson Lamet can start the series opener, but the 28-year-old departed his Friday start after just 3 .2 innings, complaining of right biceps tightness. He has thrown on the side since then without pain, suggesting he should be good to go on Wednesday.

If Lamet isn’t able to start, the Padres will be forced to turn to Chris Paddack or Zach Davies.

The Padres have been the stronger team of the two, but they have been a less destructive offense against lefties. That might explain why Kim gets the start – San Diego’s team OPS is .761 against southpaws, compared to .815 against righties.

Recent Matchups

The two teams didn’t face each other in the shortened 2020 regular season. The Padres went 4-2 against St Louis in their 2019 duels, though it’s important to consider how much has changed since then. San Diego’s roster has had major alterations – there was no Jake Cronenworth in 2019, while Franmil Reyes and Hunter Renfroe were still on the team for those games.

The Padres’ pitching staff has almost completely changed. Midseason trades bolstered their catching options and Tommy Pham, Trent Grisham, and Jurickson Profar arrived during the off-season.

Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado have both enjoyed success against the Cards, albeit over very small samples. Tatis’ OPS is 1.278 in six games; Machado’s is 1.101 in a more respectable sample of 19 games.

Paul Goldschmidt tortured the National League West for the better part of a decade. The Padres were not exempt from that – he has 55 extra-base hits and 88 walks in 126 starts against San Diego.

Castro Good to Go

Lamet’s bicep soreness is a concern, but the news is positive on that front. San Diego had another injury scare when catcher Jason Castro took a foul tip to the mask on the final day of the season. Castro was visibly shaken up and left the game.

Fortunately for the Padres, the veteran backstop has passed concussion protocols and will likely be good to go the Wild-Card series opener on Wednesday.

Jason Castro is exiting today's game after taking a foul ball off his face mask.

The Padres will bring in Austin Nola and lose their DH. Fernando Tatis, Jr. and Manny Machado are already out of the game.

— Kerry Crowley (@KO_Crowley) September 27, 2020

Castro posted a lowly 61 OPS+ in 28 plate appearances with San Diego, but he has plenty of pop and ranks well in defensive metrics.

Bet on the Friars

The starting pitching is a bit of a worry, but the Padres have the bullpen depth to compensate. Their pen ranked fourth in the league in xFIP and 10th in fWAR.

San Diego won 21 of their 32 home games. The Cardinals were solid on the road (16-15), which means the home/road splits give us little information. The raw numbers lean heavily towards this Padres offense – the Cardinals’ team OPS was over 100 points lower than San Diego’s.

Pick: San Diego Padres Moneyline (-173)