Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Picks, Player Props & Closing Odds (Game 1)

• The Milwaukee Brewers send ace Freddy Peralta to the mound against the Chicago Cubs (TBD) in Game 1 of the ALDS
• EArly money pushed the Brewers vs Cubs run total down a full run at some sportsbooks
• Below, see my favorite Cubs vs Brewers picks for Game 1 plus the main player props and updated CHC/MIL odds

The MLB-best Milwaukee Brewers (97-65, 52-29 home) begin postseason action by hosting the Chicago Cubs (92-70, 42-39 away) in Game 1 of an all-NL Central, best-of-five NLDS on Saturday (1:08 pm CT/2:08 pm ET at American Family Field).

The rested Brewers have the luxury of sending ace Freddy Peralta (17-6, 2.70 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) to the mound while the Cubs go with Matthew Boyd on four-days’ rest. Boyd threw just 58 pitches over 4.1 innings in a 3-1 win against the Padres on Tuesday.

When Boyd was announced as the Chicago starter, the Cubs/Brewers odds moved in the visitor’s favor, though Milwaukee is still significant home chalk.

Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Picks for Game 1

• Milwaukee Brewers moneyline (-144) at DraftKings
• Under 7.5 (-105) at Fanatics
• Peralta over 6.5 Ks (+100) at FanDuel

In a high-stakes playoff opener, the edge belongs to the team with the proven ace on the mound at home. Freddy Peralta is a difference-maker for the Brewers. His historical dominance over the heart of the Cubs’ order cannot be overstated (see his H2H stats against the Cubs); he effectively neutralizes key run producers like Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki.

While the Cubs enter with momentum from the Wild Card round, facing Peralta at a raucous American Family Field – where Milwaukee was an elite 52-29 in the regular season – is an entirely different challenge than facing the Padres at Wrigley Field.

Milwaukee star catcher William Contreras continues to battle a hand injury that kept him out of the Brewers’ last two regular-season games. He might be less than 100% but manager Pat Murphy was adamant he would start.

The Cubs have been a strong under bet recently, with the under hitting in their last six road games as an underdog and their last four games, overall. This aligns perfectly with the sharp line movement that has driven the total down from 8.0 to as low as 7.0 (though it’s still available at some books 7.5 if you hurry).

While the Brewers have struggled recently as favorites (1-5 in their last six), playoff baseball often resets those regular-season trends. Peralta’s ability to control the game and the immense pressure of the postseason environment both point toward a low-scoring game and a Milwaukee victory.

The best value lies in trusting the ace and the market signals.

Pitcher-vs-Batter History: Peralta vs Boyd

Freddy Peralta has a long history against the Cubs hitters, who have racked up 178 total at-bats against the longtime Brewer. The results haven’t been favorable for the Chicago bats.

Chicago Cubs Career Statistics vs Freddy Peralta

Peralta has largely dominated the core of this Cubs lineup, holding key bats like Ian Happ (.063 in 32 at-bats) and Seiya Suzuki (.130 in 23 at-bats) to abysmal career averages.

The main outliers are Pete Crow-Armstrong (5-for-11 with a home run and a double) and Kyle Tucker (5-for-11 with a double).

Peralta has an elite 33.7% K-rate against the Cubs hitters. They did touch him up a bit in the regular season over four starts. Chicago tagged him for five runs on five hits (one homer) and two walks on July 30, and three runs on two hits (both homers) and two walks on July 19.

His other two starts against the Cubs this season were stellar: no runs on five hits over 12.0 IP with 13 strikeouts.

The Brewers went 3-1 against Chicago in Peralta’s four starts.

Milwaukee Brewers Career Statistics vs Matthew Boyd

Boyd has solid numbers against the Brewers batters, limiting them to a .237 average and .717 OPS in 76 at-bats. William Contreras, Andrew Vaughn, and Christian Yelich each have one home run off the Chicago starter.

Boyd has only managed 17 Ks in those 76 at-bats (22.4% K-rate).

Boyd made two starts against Milwaukee in the regular season and neither were good: he was tagged for five runs (all earned) on six hits and five walks over 5.0 IP in an 8-4 loss on July 28; three weeks later, he gave up four runs on six hits and three walks over 5.1 innings in a 6-4 win. He managed just five strikeouts in 10.1 regular-season innings against Milwaukee.

Brewers vs Cubs Player Props for Game 1

MLB player props as of October 3 at MGM. Over odds listed first, under odds listed second.

The over on Peralta’s strikeout prop (6.5 at even-money) is enticing. He has punched out Seiya Suzuki 12 times in 23 at-bats and Ian Happ 14 times in 32 at-bats. Given the Cubs’ swing-and-miss tendencies against him, he has a strong chance to exceed this number.

Among the hitters, William Contreras over 1.5 Total Bases at +115 offers value, especially if his hand injury is minor and he’s in the lineup. He is the Brewers’ most consistent offensive threat.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Odds (Game 1)

An hour before first pitch, the Milwaukee moneyline had faded to -144 while the best price on the Cubs was now just +125. The run total is 7.5 across the board with the over slightly juiced at most books.

Odds commentary as of 6:12 pm ET, October 3. The odds in the table, above, will updated automatically with the best available price if books move the lines.

MIL Brewers vs CHI Cubs Odds Movement

The most significant line movement has been on the total, which opened at 8.0 runs, dropped a full run to 7.0, and has since gone back up half a run to 7.5.

The Cubs got slightly shorter when Boyd replaced TBD as the probable starter, going from +130 to +125 (or shorter).

Bookmaker SBD’s MLB public betting splits to see the money and bet percentages for every postseason game.