Marlins (Alcantara) vs Cubs (Hendricks) Game 1 Picks and Odds – Sep. 30th
- The Miami Marlins visit the Chicago Cubs for Game 1 of their NL Wild-Card series on Wednesday afternoon
- Sandy Alcantara gets the start for Miami, while veteran Kyle Hendricks is expected to be on the hill for the Cubs
- First pitch is scheduled for 2:00 pm ET, with a lingering risk of showers and brisk winds in the weather forecast
The Miami Marlins make their first appearance in the MLB Postseason in 17 years when they take on the Chicago Cubs in Game 1 of their NL wild-card series as +144 underdogs on Wednesday, Sep. 30th, at 2:00 pm ET.
Right-hander Sandy Alcantara (3-2, 3.00 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) is expected to take the mound for the Marlins in Game 1 at Wrigley Field, while right-hander Kyle Hendricks (7-2, 2.46 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) gets the call for Chicago.
The Cubs enter Game 1 as -164 favorites. With home-field advantage throughout this best-of-three matchup, Chicago also sits as lofty -194 chalk on the MLB playoff series prices.
Marlins vs Cubs Game 1 Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins | +144 | TBD | TBD |
| Chicago Cub s | -164 | TBD | TBD |
Odds as of Sep. 29th.
Marlins Overcome Adversity in Return to Postseason
The Marlins recorded their first winning campaign since 2009 with a 31-29 record, and their march into the postseason is all the more impressive considering the adversity they faced getting here. Miami saw its season threatened early on by an outbreak of COVID-19, followed by a dismal 7-14 run that threatened to dump them out of contention.
Forced to play the majority of their games away from Marlins Park, Miami embraced its role as road warriors; the Marlins were one of only three MLB teams to record 20 road wins this season.
The Miami Marlins are an anomaly this year: they are 7-13 against teams above .500, have a better road record than home record, and are the only playoff team in either the AL or NL with a losing home record. They are somehow 4 games better than their expected Win/Loss record.
— Dan (@TheGreatDoheny) September 25, 2020
Miami also brings a unique distinction into its series with the Cubs, as the only MLB team to never lose a playoff series. The Marlins went on to win the World Series in their two previous postseason appearances, knocking off the Cubs along the way in the 2003 NLCS.
While the Marlins didn’t face the Cubs during the 2020 MLB regular season, they have plenty of work to do to reverse a dismal 1-10 record in their past 11 meetings. They also sport an ugly 2-13 record in 15 visits to Wrigley Field since September 2013.
Miami Marlins Home / Road Splits
| 11-15 | Record | 20-14 |
| 3.77 | Runs Scored Per Game | 4.85 |
| 4.92 | Runs Allowed Per Game | 5.18 |
| .423 | Win Percentage | .588 |
Cubs Limping into Postseason
The Cubs look to snap out of a slump that saw them lose six of their final nine regular-season contests. Chicago pitchers were rocked at times during that stretch, with opponents scoring seven or more runs on four occasions.
Cubs News: Changes needed after another late-season offensive slump https://t.co/nuOGp4iQt6 ?a_aid=42167 #Cubessed #Chicagocubs #Cubs pic.twitter.com/F7DWOwhFVW
— Cubsessed (@CubsessedCubFan) September 25, 2020
However, the Cubs staff still closed out the campaign with an NL-best 30 quality starts, and is among the NL leaders in team ERA (3.99), and team WHIP (1.22). Conversely, Cubs hitters struggled at the plate, compiling a 27th-ranked .220 team average, and rank 11th among 16 playoff-bound teams with just 265 total runs scored this season.
Alcantara Makes Postseason Debut
Alcantara will make his postseason debut when he takes the mound on Wednesday afternoon. The 25-year-old has been steady since recovering from COVID-19, surrendering just eight total earned runs and striking out 30 batters in 31.1 innings over five September starts. He had a 2-1 record during that stretch.
However, he gave up eight total earned runs in 11.0 innings over two starts against Chicago in 2019.
Sandy Alcantara faced the Cubs two times in 2019.
In the two outings the Cubs had:
.275 BA
.383 OBP
.425 SLG
8 R
11 H
12 SO
7 BB— Chief Cub (@ChiefCub) September 30, 2020
While Alcantara has been steady, the Marlins struggled at times down the stretch to contain opposing hitters. The club surrendered an average of seven runs per game over their final eight contests, and sat near the bottom of the NL with 304 runs allowed this season.
Alcantara vs Hendricks: 2020 Comparison
| 7 | Starts | 12 |
| 3-2 | Record | 6-5 |
| 3.00 | ERA | 2.88 |
| 6.0 | Innings per Start | 6.2 |
| 39 | Strikeouts | 64 |
| 15 | Walks | 8 |
| 1.19 | WHIP | 1.00 |
| 3.72 | FIP | 3.55 |
World Series Hero Hendricks Gets the Call
In addition to his sparkling postseason credentials (he pitched nine innings during the 2016 World Series, allowing a single earned run), Hendricks was also spectacular down the stretch this season, allowing just six earned runs in 37.1 innings over five September starts, and ranked among the NL leaders in wins, ERA, and WHIP.
#Cubs Wild Card Series Game 1 Starter: Kyle Hendricks.
Hendricks led the NL with 8.00 K/BB and ranked 2nd with 81.1 IP. He posted a 1.85 home ERA in 6 starts this season. #FlytheW pic.twitter.com/CIPwfCkyy7
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) September 29, 2020
Hendricks has also dominated in previous dates with Miami, surrendering one or fewer runs in five of his past six starts, including four outings with zero earned runs.
Experience Gives the Cubs the Edge
The Cubs enter this series against the youthful Marlins holding a wide edge in experience. With Hendricks on the mound, Chicago should be able to avoid some of the big offensive outbursts they faced from opponents over the final days of the regular season.
Pick: Cubs (-156)
Daniel has been writing about sports and sports betting for over 23 years. The seasoned pro has contributed to the likes of Sports Illustrated, Sportsnet, NESN, Bleacher Report, OddsShark, the Globe and Mail, and The Nation magazine.
