Upcoming Match-ups

Marlins vs Cubs Predictions, Odds & Starting Pitchers (May 5)

John Perrotto

by John Perrotto in MLB Baseball

Updated May 4, 2023 · 7:53 PM PDT

Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Justin Steele mid-pitch
Apr 30, 2023; Miami, Florida, USA; Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Justin Steele (35) throws a pitch against the Miami Marlins during the first inning at loanDepot Park. Mandatory Credit: Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Cubs are -168 home favorites over the Marlins on Friday
  • Edward Cabrera (2-2, 4.67) will start for the Marlins against Cubs lefty Justin Steele (4-0, 1.49)
  • A look at the Marlins vs Cubs predictions and odds can be found below

For the second weekend in a row, the Miami Marlins and Cubs meet in a three-game series, beginning at 2:20 p.m. ET Friday at Wrigley Field in Chicago.

The Marlins (16-16, 6-7 road) lost to the Braves 6-3 on Thursday at home as Atlanta completed a three-game series sweep. Miami had won four straight games entering the series.

The Cubs (15-16, 8-8 home) lost their third game in a row and for the sixth time in seven games when they fell 4-3 to the Nationals in Washington.

MLB Network will televise the game.

Marlins vs Cubs Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Miami Marlins +142 +1.5 (-137) Over 9 (-110)
Chicago Cubs -168 -1.5 (+114) Under 9 (-110)

The Cubs are -168 favorites on the moneyline over the Marlins on Friday in the MLB odds, giving them a 62.69% implied win probability. Miami has +8000 World Series championship odds and Chicago is listed +10000.

It will be a bit of a windy day in Wrigleyville. The weather forecast calls for sunny skies, a high of 67 and south wind from 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20.


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Odds as of May 4th at FanDuel. Use this FanDuel Sportsbook promo code to wager on Marlins vs Cubs. 

Marlins vs Cubs Probable Pitchers

Edward Cabrera (2-2, 4.67) is expected to start for the Marlins against left-hander Justin Steele (4-0, 1.09). Cabrera will be pitching on five days of rest and Steele on four.

Cabrera vs Steele

Edward Cabrera
Justin Steele
2-2 Record 4-0
4.67 ERA 1.49
4.24 xERA 3.22
1.74 WHIP 0.96
1.44 SO/W 2.91

Cabrera beat the Cubs last Saturday in Miami, striking out 12 in five innings, though he also walked five. Chicago managed just two runs and three hits off Cabrera.

Cabrera stayed perfect against the Cubs with a 2-0 career record and 3.00 ERA over three starts.

The Marlins have split Cabrera’s six starts this season and he has just one quality start to his record. He has struggled on the road with an 0-2 record and 6.00 ERA in three starts while going 1-1 with a 4.32 ERA in four starts during the day.

Last Sunday in Miami, Steele pitched six innings against the Marlins but did not factor in the decision after winning his previous four starts. He gave up three runs (two earned) and seven hits with three strikeouts and one walk.

Steele has faced the Marlins twice in his career with no record and a 1.69 ERA.

Steele has been outstanding at Wrigley Field this season, going 2-0 with a 0.52 ERA in three starts. He is also 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA in four starts in day games. Steele has notched quality starts in five of his six outings and the Cubs are 4-2 when he pitches.

Despite leading the National League in ERA, Steele’s NL Cy Young odds are +6000.

Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers

Marlins Batters Batting Average vs Justin Steele
Garrett Hampson 1.000
Nick Fortes 1.000
Jon Berti .667
Luis Arraez .333
Bryan De La Cruz .250
Jacob Stallings .167
Jazz Chisholm Jr. .000
Jean Segura .000
Jorge Soler .000
Peyton Burdick .000
Jesus Sanchez .000
Cubs Batters Batting Average vs Edward Cabrera
Nico Hoerner .500
Trey Mancini .500
Patrick Wisdom .333
Ian Happ .200
Dansby Swanson .000
Nelson Velazquez .000
Seiya Suzuki .000
Tucker Barnhart .000
Cody Bellinger .000
Eric Hosmer .000
Nick Madrigal .000

Marlins utility man Garrett Hampson is likely to get a start as he is 3 for 3 with two doubles against Steele in his career. Catcher Jacob Stallings, though, is 1 for 6.

Cubs shortstop Dansby Swanson is 0 for 3 against Cabrera but has drawn five walks in eight plate appearances.

Marlins vs Cubs Betting Trends

Jorge Soler had three hits, including a home run, and drove in all three Marlins’ runs in their loss to the Braves on Thursday. Jon Berti also had three hits.

The Marlins called up veteran right-hander Chi Chi Gonzalez from Triple-A Jacksonville before the game to work out of the bullpen.

The Cubs lost to the Nationals on Thursday on Alex Call’s leadoff walk-off home run in the ninth inning. Cody Bellinger had two hits for Chicago.

The Cubs are expected to call up first base prospect Matt Mervis from Triple-A Iowa prior to Friday’s game to make his major-league debut. The 25-year-old is hitting .286 with six home runs for Iowa in 24 games.

Marlins vs Cubs Last 10 Games

Date Home Team Away Team Score
4/30/23 Marlins Cubs MIA, 4-3
4/29/23 Marlins Cubs MIA, 7-6
4/28/23 Marlins Cubs MIA, 3-2
9/21/22 Marlins Cubs CHC, 4-3
9/20/22 Marlins Cubs CHC, 2-1
9/19/22 Marlins Cubs MIA, 10-3
8/7/22 Cubs Marlins MIA, 3-0
8/6/22 Cubs Marlins CHC, 4-0
8/5/22 Cubs Marlins CHC, 2-1
8/15/21 Marlins Cubs MIA, 4-1

The Marlins swept a three-game series from the Cubs last weekend in Miami as second baseman Luis Arreaz, who has +8000 NL MVP odds, went 5 for 9 with two walks and center fielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. was 5 for 11. Since 2021, the Marlins are 10-5 against the Cubs.

Marlins vs Cubs Prediction

Both teams are struggling as they come into this series, but Steele has been outstanding this season and is worth riding as the NL ERA leader.

Pick: Cubs -168 ML

Season Record: 13-6 (+5.1 units) ML; 2-2 (0.0 units) RL; 1-0 (+1.0 unit) O/U; 16-8 (+6.1 units) overall


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