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Mets vs Reds Picks, Odds & Starting Pitchers (May 11)

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in MLB Baseball

Updated May 10, 2023 · 9:45 PM PDT

Francisco Lindor steps out of the dugout
New York Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor (12) prepares to bat in the top of the ninth inning of the MLB National League game between the Cincinnati Reds and the New York Mets at Great American Ball Park in downtown Cincinnati on Tuesday, May 9, 2023.
  • New York is a -195 moneyline favorite in the Mets vs Reds odds on Thursday
  • The Mets have dropped 12 of their past 16 games
  • Check out the Mets vs Reds predictions, picks and odds below

If the Mets (18-19, 11-11 away) are going to turn their season around, they couldn’t have asked for a much better opponent to get the process started. They’ll square off against the lowly Reds (15-21, 11-9 home) on Thursday afternoon, looking to get out of Cincinnati with a series victory.

Oddsmakers are bullish on their chances in the MLB odds, as they’ve opened New York as the road chalk. The Mets took Game 2 of the three-game set on Wednesday night, after falling to the Reds in the series opener.

Mets vs Reds Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
New York Mets -195 -1.5 (-130 ) O 10 (-115)
Cincinnati Reds +165 +1.5 (+110) U 10 (-105)

New York is currently a -195 moneyline favorite, in a contest with a total of 10. First pitch is scheduled for 12:35 pm ET at the Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, OH, with clear skies and 77 degree game-time temperatures on deck.

 

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Odds as of May 10th at FanDuel. Claim a FanDuel promo code to bet on MLB on Thursday. 

New York vs Cincinnati Probable Pitchers

The Mets, who began the season as a top-six World Series odds contender, will give the ball Kodai Senga. The Japanese sensation has been one of the few bright spots for New York’s rotation this season, and is fresh off one of his best outings.

Senga scattered two hits over six scoreless innings last Friday versus the Rockies. It marked the Mets first quality start in nearly two weeks and Senga’s fourth start out of six where he allowed two runs or less.

The 30-year-old will have the luxury of facing one of the league’s 11 lowest scoring MLB lineups, but if there’s an issue for concern it’s his walk rate. Senga has surrendered 18 free passes in only 32 innings, including four in each of his past four starts.

Lively (career) vs Senga Stats

Ben Lively
VS
Kodai Senga
4-10 Record 4-1
4.80 ERA 3.38
1.44 WHIP 1.47
.287 OBA .210
2.1 SO/W Ratio 1.6

Cincinnati meanwhile, has not officially named a starter but manager David Bell said Ben Lively will get the bulk of the innings. That’s got to be music to the Mets batters ears, as Lively is well below a replacement level pitcher.

He was just recalled for the minors and hasn’t seen MLB action since 2019. The 31-year-old has a career 4.80 ERA and 1.44 WHIP, while opponents have boasted a .287/.353/.493 slash line against him over 120 innings.

Mets vs Reds Betting Trends

The Reds starting pitching has been a train wreck this season, so much worse can Lively really be? Cincy’s rotation has a 6.40 ERA, while their combination of fourth and fifth starters have a 9.80 ERA. As a result, only three teams in baseball allow more runs per game, and none in the National League.

That should help spark a Mets offense that is drastically underachieving. Despite the presence of Pete Alonso, a top-two NL MVP odds candidate, New York ranks bottom-10 in scoring. They’re also well below league average in hits, slugging and OPS, crossing the plate two times or less in five of their past seven games.

Alonso has hit an MLB best 13 home runs, but his only teammate with more than three dingers is Francisco Lindor (6).

The Reds on the other hand, enter play with six losses in their last nine games and have only one player with four home runs this season (Spencer Steer). They managed just two hits in Wednesday’s 2-1 loss to New York, and have now struck out 326 times through 36 games.

Mets vs Reds Predictions

The strikeouts are likely going to be piling up on Thursday with Senga on the mound, as he boasts a healthy 10.1 K/9 rate. New York’s underwhelming offense is in a pristine spot to bounce back versus Lively and Co., and a win on Thursday will segue nicely into another favorable matchup over the weekend.

Mets vs Reds 2023 H2H Results

Date Away Team Home Team Result
May 10 Mets Reds NYM, 2-1
May 9 Mets Reds CIN, 7-6

The Mets will move from Cincinnati to Washington on Friday for a four-game set with the Nationals. Washington is the NL East’s bottom feeder and these are matchups New York must take advantage of in order to get back into contender status.

I’m betting they capitalize on Thursday’s contest by more than 1.5 runs. 13 of their 18 wins have been by two or more runs this season, while nine of Cincy’s last 14 losses have come by multiple runs.

Pick: New York Mets -1.5 (-130)

 

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