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Mike Trout Still Favored to Win 2019 AL MVP, But No Longer the Odds-On Favorite

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in MLB Baseball

Updated Apr 13, 2020 · 7:15 PM PDT

Mike Trout
Mike Trout has finished either first or second in MVP voting in six of his first seven full MLB seasons. Photo by Keith Allison Wikimedia Commons) [CC License].
  • Mike Trout’s AL MVP odds have gotten longer despite his torrid start in 2019
  • He has the highest WAR and OBP in the American League by a wide margin
  • Is he still the best bet to win the award?

Mike Trout is the most talented player in baseball and somehow he appears to be getting better. The Angels center fielder is tearing the cover off the ball again in 2019 and is reaching base at an incredible rate.

His on-base percentage is 50 points higher than anyone else in the American league, yet despite his strong start to the season his 2019 AL MVP odds have gotten longer.

2019 American League MVP Odds

Player 2019 AL MVP Odds
Mike Trout +200
Mookie Betts +500
Alex Bregman +900
Matt Chapman +1000
Jorge Polanco +1200

*Odds taken 05/03/19

He’s still a healthy favorite ahead of last year’s winner Mookie Betts, but the price discount available on him now makes little sense. He’s finished either first or second in MVP voting in six of his seven full seasons in the Majors, and he looks poised to win the award again this year.

Trout is like a Fine Wine

In addition to his astronomical OBP, Trout is third in the AL in slugging and has drawn eight more walks than anyone else. He also leads the AL in wins above replacement (WAR) by a significant margin, and is hitting .400 with runners in scoring position.

Through 29 games, he has a career low 10.9% strikeout rate and the only critique of his game has been a surprising lack of power. After belting five home runs in the first two weeks of the season, he’s managed just two in the last 19 games. While some may view that as a reason for concern, it’s more likely just a case of variance. His hard hit rate is 43.8% and his fly ball rate is above his career average, which suggest we’ll be seeing a lot more homers in the weeks to come.

Buy the Trout Dip

Trout’s current price represents incredible value. He was a -150 favorite to win the award a month ago and he’s done nothing to warrant such a severe change to his odds. While it can be tempting to chase long shots like Jorge Polanco or Hunter Dozier, they’re bound to come crashing back to earth while Trout will consistently produce at the plate and in the field for 162 games.

He’s the best player of this generation and it won’t be long before he’s celebrating another MVP trophy.

Pick: Mike Trout (+200)

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