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Philadelphia Phillies vs Boston Red Sox Odds, Predictions & Starting Pitchers on June 13

Ethan Stone

by Ethan Stone in MLB Baseball

Updated Jun 13, 2024 · 10:30 AM PDT

Tanner Houck, Boston Red Sox.
Jun 6, 2024; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Tanner Houck (89) delivers a pitch against the Chicago White Sox during the first inning at Guaranteed Rate Field. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Boston Red Sox host the Philadelphia Phillies Thursday night in a deciding matchup after Philidelphia took Game 1 and Boston stormed back to take Game 2.
  • The Red Sox and Phillies are both throwing excellent pitchers tonight, with Boston handing the ball to Tanner Houck and Philidelphia Aaron Nola.
  • See the odds, pitchers and a prediction for Thursday’s game below.

The Boston Red Sox scored perhaps their biggest win of the season Wednesday night, working an 8-6 win over the top team in the National League, the Philadelphia Phillies.

Boston is 34-34 on the season and has performed better on the road than at home. They sit 3rd in an absolutely stacked AL East behind the Yankees and Orioles, who many would consider the best teams in baseball right alongside these Phillies.

The Phillies have more firepower, plain and simple. It may all come down to the right arm of Tanner Houck with first pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET from Boston.

Red Sox vs. Phillies Odds

Team Runline Moneyline Total
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+130) -115 O 8.5 (-105)
Boston Red Sox +1.5 (-160) -105 U 8.5 (-115)

Odds above via Fanatics Sportsbook. Check out our Fanatics Promo Code for more information on a fantastic welcome offer!

Even with Boston having all the momentum, Philadelphia is considered to be slight favorites in tonight’s game at -115 ML and -1.5 on the runline. Boston is favored to keep the game within a run at -160 odds and sits -105 ML.

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Philidelphia, on account of being Philadelphia, has a 14-9 record as the away favorite this season while Boston sits at 5-4 as the home underdog. The Phillies have only lost to an American League opponent 3 times this season, one being last night as you can see above.

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The Over/Under for this matchup has been set at 8.5 per Fanatics, with the under just slightly favored. Philidelphia is 8-14 against the over as the away favorite while Boston is 5-3-1 ATO as the home underdog. Both teams hover around 45% against the over across all games this season.

But the biggest indicator that this game should be a low-scoring affair is the pitching matchup…

Aaron Nola vs Tanner Houck

Nola
VS
Houck
8-2 Record 6-5
2.77 ERA 1.91
3.29 xERA 3.24
0.97 WHIP 0.92
23.1% K% 25.0%

One of the best performing pitchers in the American League will be in action Thursday as Boston hands the ball to Tanner Houck in search of their best series win of the season.

Houck is +1200 to win the AL Cy Young Award, tied for 3rd best odds. He’s putting together an incredible season and currently has the 2nd best ERA in the Majors as well as the 3rd best WHIP. His 84 strikeouts are tied for 17th in Major League baseball. Across his last 4 starts Houck has struck out 27 batters while allowing more than 1 earned run just once against Chicago.

More importantly, he’s performed well at home and especially so against this Phillies lineup. Only 2 runs have been batted in across 18 at-bats with 3 hits between Kyle Schwarber, Bryson Stott and Bryce Harper.

Nola is also +1200 to win the NL Cy Young Award, the 5th best odds. Of the Red Sox batters who have faced Nola, only Tyler O’Neill has seen success, batting.400 across 5 at-bats with a home run and a pair of hits. However, Nola also struck him out 3 times. Rafael Devers has really struggled against Nola, batting .125 across 8 at-bats with just 1 hit and 4 strikeouts.

Speaking of strikeouts, expect a lot today between Nola and Houck. Nola faces a Red Sox team that is top 3 in the majors in total strikeouts behind only Seattle and Oakland, and Nola sits at an impressive 76 strikeouts on the season – tied for 31st. If you’re wondering, DraftKings has set Nola’s Strikeout line at 6.5 (O +120, U -160).

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox Prediction (June 13)

Houck and Nola are performing at impressive levels right now, especially Houck. I’d lean Boston +1.5 if the risk wasn’t so great at -160, because this definitely seems like it will be a close, low scoring affair.

That said, considering the trends for both these teams against the Over/Under and a stellar pitching matchup, Under 8.5 at -115 seems to be a safe option for tonight’s deciding game. Keep in mind: Houck has been under in 8 of his past 11 starts and Nola in 4 of his last 6 starts.

PHI vs. BOS pick: Under 8.5 (-115)

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