Phillies vs Cubs Picks & Odds (Sep. 29)
- The Phillies vs Cubs odds favor Philadelphia as -180 moneyline favorites on Thursday (Sept. 29) at 2:20 pm ET
- Philadelphia will give the ball to Ranger Suarez (10-5, 3.38 ERA), while Chicago will counter with Javier Assad (1-2, 4.28 ERA)
- Read below for the Phillies vs Cubs odds and betting prediction
The Philadelphia Phillies (83-70, 36-36 away) couldn’t have picked a worse possible time for a slump. Philly entered play on Wednesday losers of three straight and eight of their past 11, and sit just 1.5 games up on Milwaukee for the final NL Wild Card spot with only nine games to play.
Their magic number to clinch a playoff spot rests at eight, but if they can string together a handful of wins down the stretch, that should be good enough to fend off the underwhelming Brewers.
The challenge for Philly resumes on Thursday, in the series finale of their three game set with the Chicago Cubs (68-86, 32-44 home).
Phillies vs Cubs Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies | -180 | OFF | OFF |
| Chicago Cubs | +155 | OFF | OFF |
Odds as of September 28 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Claim the FanDuel Sportsbook promo code.
Oddsmakers are certainly expecting an inspired effort from Philadelphia, as the Phillies opened as -180 moneyline favorites. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20 pm ET at Wrigley Field in Chicago, IL, with clear skies and 64 degree temperatures in the forecast.
Philadelphia vs Chicago Probable Pitchers
Thanks to their slump, Philly’s World Series odds have cratered to +3500. They’ll give the ball to Ranger Suarez on Thursday, who out duelled NL Cy Young odds contender Max Fried in his most recent start.
Suarez threw 6 innings of shutout ball, scattering five hits to the powerhouse Braves, while striking out four. It marked his second consecutive stellar star, both against Atlanta, after allowing only one run and two hits over 6 innings seven days earlier.
Ranger Suarez prevents the Braves from responding! pic.twitter.com/boOR7dmAGu
— Brodes Media (@BrodesMedia) September 23, 2022
Suarez has been rock solid over the second half of the season, allowing three or fewer runs in nine of 11 starts. Four of those outings were of the shutout variety, while he’s dominated the Cubs over a small sample size. Current Chicago hitters are batting just .067 against him, recording one hit in 15 at-bats.
Suarez vs Assad Stats
| 10-5 | Record | 1-2 |
| 3.38 | ERA | 4.28 |
| 1.30 | WHIP | 1.57 |
| .242 | OBA | .241 |
| 2.2 | SO/W Ratio | 1.4 |
The Cubs will counter with Javier Assad. The rookie has had an up and down start to his MLB career, looking fantastic early on, but struggling lately.
#CHC Javier Assad is currently freezing.#ItsDifferentHere | @Cubs pic.twitter.com/DZgXTOD4DT
— MLB Heat Check (@mlbheatcheck) September 24, 2022
He’s failed to make it past the 4th inning in back to back starts, yielding eight runs and two homers over his past 6 innings of work. His control has been a major issue during his last three starts, issuing 10 walks total. That kind of pitching is a recipe for disaster against the potent Phillies lineup, regardless of how poorly they’ve been playing.
Phillies vs Cubs Betting Trends
Philadelphia’s offense has been underperforming slightly compared to their season long marks over the past two weeks, but they’re still averaging 4.5 runs and 1.3 homers per outing over that stretch. The lineup is loaded from top-to-bottom with stars like Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos among others, and they’ve still found a way to produce at least seven runs in three of their past seven contests.
Phillies record in final 9 games VS what Milwaukee would need to pass them
Phi 9-0/ Mil —
Phi 8-1/ Mil —
Phi 7-2/ Mil —
Phi 6-3/ Mil 8-0
Phi 5-4/ Mil 7-1
Phi 4-5/ Mil 6-2
Phi 3-6/ Mil 5-3
Phi 2-7/ Mil 4-4
Phi 1-8/ Mil 3-5
Phi 0-9/ Mil 2-6— Explaining The Phillies (@ExplainingPhils) September 28, 2022
The pitching on the other hand is worrisome, Suarez has been stellar, but the bullpen has struggled mightily. They boast a 59% strand rate over the past two weeks, the third worst number in baseball. Their 5.35 ERA is the fifth worst mark, while they’re also issuing four walks per 9 innings.
The Cubs on the other hand, are peaking in September. The problem is, they were so bad through the first five months of the season that their recent success doesn’t mean much. Chicago has reeled off six wins in their last seven outings, and is 10-4 over the past 17 days.
The Phillies have had 3 runners reach 2nd base in 11 innings against the Chicago Cubs known cy young staff
— depressed phillies fan (@BryceInHisVeins) September 29, 2022
The Cubs haven’t experienced a drastic surge in power at the plate, but they have been exceptional on the mound. They boast a 2.89 team ERA over the past two weeks, yielding just 3.5 runs per game. The bullpen has been incredibly sharp, posting a 2.56 ERA over that time frame, and an 88% strand rate.
PHI vs CHC Last 10 Meetings
| Date | Away Team | Home Team | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/27/22 | Phillies | Cubs | CHC, 2-1 |
| 7/24/22 | Cubs | Phillies | PHI, 4-3 |
| 7/23/22 | Cubs | Phillies | PHI, 6-2 |
| 7/22/22 | Cubs | Phillies | PHI, 15-2 |
| 9/16/21 | Cubs | Phillies | PHI, 17-8 |
| 9/15/21 | Cubs | Phillies | PHI, 6-5 |
| 9/14/21 | Cubs | Phillies | CHC, 6-3 |
| 7/8/21 | Phillies | Cubs | PHI, 8-0 |
| 7/7/21 | Phillies | Cubs | CHC, 8-3 |
| 7/6/21 | Phillies | Cubs | PHI, 15-10 |
Phillies vs Cubs Pick
Chicago may have taken the series opener 2-1, but we can’t expect them to continue to limit the high powered Phillies offense. Philadelphia had taken the previous five meetings between the two clubs by a cumulative score of 48-20, and have scored at least six runs in seven of their past 11 matchups versus the Cubs.
Suarez on the bump has been one of Philly’s most consistent starters lately, while Assad hasn’t proved he can hang at the major league level.
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline (-180)
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As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
