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Phillies vs Cubs Picks & Odds (Sep. 29)

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in MLB Baseball

Updated Sep 28, 2022 · 5:44 PM PDT

Bryce Harper looks on from the dugout
Sep 25, 2022; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies designated hitter Bryce Harper (3) against the Atlanta Braves at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Phillies vs Cubs odds favor Philadelphia as -180 moneyline favorites on Thursday (Sept. 29) at 2:20 pm ET
  • Philadelphia will give the ball to Ranger Suarez (10-5, 3.38 ERA), while Chicago will counter with Javier Assad (1-2, 4.28 ERA)
  • Read below for the Phillies vs Cubs odds and betting prediction

The Philadelphia Phillies (83-70, 36-36 away) couldn’t have picked a worse possible time for a slump. Philly entered play on Wednesday losers of three straight and eight of their past 11, and sit just 1.5 games up on Milwaukee for the final NL Wild Card spot with only nine games to play.

Their magic number to clinch a playoff spot rests at eight, but if they can string together a handful of wins down the stretch, that should be good enough to fend off the underwhelming Brewers.

The challenge for Philly resumes on Thursday, in the series finale of their three game set with the Chicago Cubs (68-86, 32-44 home).

Phillies vs Cubs Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Philadelphia Phillies -180 OFF OFF
Chicago Cubs +155 OFF OFF

Odds as of September 28 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Claim the FanDuel Sportsbook promo code.

Oddsmakers are certainly expecting an inspired effort from Philadelphia, as the Phillies opened as -180 moneyline favorites. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20 pm ET at Wrigley Field in Chicago, IL, with clear skies and 64 degree temperatures in the forecast.



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Philadelphia vs Chicago Probable Pitchers

Thanks to their slump, Philly’s World Series odds have cratered to +3500. They’ll give the ball to Ranger Suarez on Thursday, who out duelled NL Cy Young odds contender Max Fried in his most recent start.

Suarez threw 6 innings of shutout ball, scattering five hits to the powerhouse Braves, while striking out four. It marked his second consecutive stellar star, both against Atlanta, after allowing only one run and two hits over 6 innings seven days earlier.

Suarez has been rock solid over the second half of the season, allowing three or fewer runs in nine of 11 starts. Four of those outings were of the shutout variety, while he’s dominated the Cubs over a small sample size. Current Chicago hitters are batting just .067 against him, recording one hit in 15 at-bats.

Suarez vs Assad Stats

Ranger Suarez
Javier Assad
10-5 Record 1-2
3.38 ERA 4.28
1.30 WHIP 1.57
.242 OBA .241
2.2 SO/W Ratio 1.4

The Cubs will counter with Javier Assad. The rookie has had an up and down start to his MLB career, looking fantastic early on, but struggling lately.

He’s failed to make it past the 4th inning in back to back starts, yielding eight runs and two homers over his past 6 innings of work. His control has been a major issue during his last three starts, issuing 10 walks total. That kind of pitching is a recipe for disaster against the potent Phillies lineup, regardless of how poorly they’ve been playing.

Phillies vs Cubs Betting Trends

Philadelphia’s offense has been underperforming slightly compared to their season long marks over the past two weeks, but they’re still averaging 4.5 runs and 1.3 homers per outing over that stretch. The lineup is loaded from top-to-bottom with stars like Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos among others, and they’ve still found a way to produce at least seven runs in three of their past seven contests.

The pitching on the other hand is worrisome, Suarez has been stellar, but the bullpen has struggled mightily. They boast a 59% strand rate over the past two weeks, the third worst number in baseball. Their 5.35 ERA is the fifth worst mark, while they’re also issuing four walks per 9 innings.

The Cubs on the other hand, are peaking in September. The problem is, they were so bad through the first five months of the season that their recent success doesn’t mean much. Chicago has reeled off six wins in their last seven outings, and is 10-4 over the past 17 days.

The Cubs haven’t experienced a drastic surge in power at the plate, but they have been exceptional on the mound. They boast a 2.89 team ERA over the past two weeks, yielding just 3.5 runs per game. The bullpen has been incredibly sharp, posting a 2.56 ERA over that time frame, and an 88% strand rate.

PHI vs CHC Last 10 Meetings

Date Away Team Home Team Score
9/27/22 Phillies Cubs CHC, 2-1
7/24/22 Cubs Phillies PHI, 4-3
7/23/22 Cubs Phillies PHI, 6-2
7/22/22 Cubs Phillies PHI, 15-2
9/16/21 Cubs Phillies PHI, 17-8
9/15/21 Cubs Phillies PHI, 6-5
9/14/21 Cubs Phillies CHC, 6-3
7/8/21 Phillies Cubs PHI, 8-0
7/7/21 Phillies Cubs CHC, 8-3
7/6/21 Phillies Cubs PHI, 15-10

Phillies vs Cubs Pick

Chicago may have taken the series opener 2-1, but we can’t expect them to continue to limit the high powered Phillies offense. Philadelphia had taken the previous five meetings between the two clubs by a cumulative score of 48-20, and have scored at least six runs in seven of their past 11 matchups versus the Cubs.

Suarez on the bump has been one of Philly’s most consistent starters lately, while Assad hasn’t proved he can hang at the major league level.

Pick: Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline (-180)


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