Phillies vs Diamondbacks Odds, Picks & Predictions (June 15)

• The Phillies are -124 road favorites over the Diamondbacks on Thursday
• Aaron Nola (5-5, 4.60) will start for the Phillies against the Diamondbacks’ Ryne Nelson (3-3, 4.95)
• A look at the Phillies vs Diamondbacks predictions, picks, and odds can be found below 

The visiting Philadelphia Phillies and National League West-leading Arizona Diamondbacks meet at 3:40 p.m. ET Thursday in the finale of a four-game series at Chase Field in Phoenix.

The Phillies (34-34, 15-23 road) beat the Diamondbacks 4-3 in 10 innings on Wednesday night for their third win in the last four games and ninth in 11. The Diamondbacks (41-27, 21-16 home) have dropped back-to-back games following a six-game winning streak.

ESPN+ will stream the game.

Phillies vs Diamondbacks Odds

The Phillies are -124 favorites on the moneyline over the Diamondbacks on Thursday in the MLB odds, giving them a 55.36% implied win probability. Arizona has +2500 World Series championship odds and Philadelphia is listed at +2800.

The Chase Field roof will almost certainly be closed as a high temperature of 101 degrees is forecast.

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Odds as of June 14th at FanDuel. Claim this FanDuel promo code to bet on Phillies vs Diamondbacks on Thursday. 

Phillies vs Diamondbacks Probable Pitchers

Aaron Nola (5-5, 4.60) is expected to pitch for the Phillies against rookie Ryne Nelson (3-3, 4.95). Both will be pitching on four days of rest.

Nola vs Nelson

Nola had a rough outing against the Los Angeles Dodgers last Saturday, taking the loss while giving up six runs and seven hits in 6.1 innings, striking out seven and walking two. He is 1-2 with a 5.33 ERA in his last four starts.

Nola has struggled with the Diamondbacks in his career, going 1-2 with an 8.41 ERA in four starts.

In eight starts on the road this season, Nola is 2-3 with a 5.14 ERA while he has a 2-3 record and 5.53 ERA in seven starts during the day. Nola has registered quality starts in seven of his 14 outings, but the Phillies are 6-8 when he pitches.

Despite his bumpy season, Nola is still listed in the NL Cy Young Award odds at +7000.

Nelson pitched 5.2 scoreless innings to beat the Tigers last Saturday in Detroit. He yielded four hits, struck out four and walked two.

Ryne Nelson, Dirty 85mph Cutter. ✂️ pic.twitter.com/wgBkaTNItn

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 10, 2023

This will be Nelson’s second career start versus the Phillies. He did not factor in the decisions May 23 in Philadelphia despite allowing only one run in six innings.

Nelson has just three quality starts in 13 turns and the Diamondbacks have a 6-7 record in those games. He is 2-2 with a 6.62 ERA in seven starts at Chase Field and has a 3-1 mark and 4.14 ERA mark in seven starts in the daylight.

Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers

The hitters on the Phillies’ active roster have hit just .174 (4 for 23) off Nelson. It has boom or bust for Diamondbacks center fielder Jake McCarthy against Nola as he is 2 for 5 with a triple, a home run and three strikeouts.

Phillies vs Diamondbacks Betting Trends

Listed at +10000 in the NL MVP odds, Nick Castellanos hit a tiebreaking sacrifice fly in the 10^th inning Wednesday night as the Phillies edged the Diamondbacks.

The Phillies’ J.T. Realmuto hit a two-run home run.

Forget about it #RingTheBell pic.twitter.com/cNU0csz8AP

— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) June 15, 2023

Christian Walker’s three-run home run in the eighth inning pulled the Diamondbacks into a 3-3 tie and accounted for all their scoring. Geraldo Perdomo had three hits and Evan Longoria added two.

Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte sat out his second straight game with lower back tightness and is questionable for Thursday.

Phillies vs Diamondbacks Last 10 Games

Though the teams have split six games this season, the Diamondbacks are 28-17 against the Phillies since 2016

Phillies vs Diamondbacks Prediction

A lot of trends favor the Diamondbacks here, but Nola has a track record of being an above-average pitcher and his 3.77 xERA is a strong indicator that he is pitching better than it looks. Let’s go with him despite being a road favorite against a first-place team.

Pick: Phillies -124 ML

Season Record: 28-12 (+13.7 units) ML; 2-2 (0.0 units) RL; 2-1 (+1.0 unit) O/U; 0-1 (-1.0 unit) same-game parlays; 1-1 (+1.0) player props; 33-16 (+14.7 units) overall.