Akin Gets Another Chance to Shine for Orioles in MLB Picks and Best Bets for Sep. 27

• Sunday, Sept. 27, is the final day of the MLB regular season
• The Baltimore Orioles are +126 underdogs facing a Toronto Blue Jays team likely to be resting regulars to prep for postseason play
• Check out the MLB best bets for Sunday’s action

The final day of the MLB regular season is always a somewhat scary betting proposition. Will playoff teams rest key players as they prep for the postseason? What can be expected from a matchup of two teams that are eliminated from the playoff picture?

Finding action amidst such uncertainty is never easy but if you study hard enough, it’s still there.

Go to SBD’s MLB odds page to see all the games on Sunday’s slate. If you’re looking for Sunday’s MLB best bets, keep reading.

Pick #1 – Orioles vs Blue Jays: Baltimore Moneyline

All odds as of Sept. 26 at FanDuel.

Consider Sunday’s game between the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays for a value play. The Jays are home and cooled out, already assured of place in the postseason. The Orioles are playing out the string.

Baltimore will send top prospect Keegan Akin to the hill to face veteran Toronto hurler Tanner Roark. Roark has proven to be an unmitigated disaster this season.

Yet you can get +126 underdog odds on Baltimore in this matchup. That looks to be a price that’s worth the investment.

https://twitter.com/JoeTrezz/status/1308610312896221184?s=20

Akin (1-2, 3.57 ERA), a 25-year-old lefty, is coming off a rough outing against the Boston Red Sox. He was scuffed up for eight hits and four runs (two earned) over five innings.

If there’s anything that Akin has displayed in his brief career, though, it’s that he bounces back strongly. Prior to the loss to the Red Sox, he twirled five scoreless innings in a win over the Atlanta Braves.

That came on the heels of a loss to the New York Yankees in which Akin didn’t get out of the first inning and was touched for four earned runs.  Through it all, he’s displaying an impressive knack for missing bats. Akin has struck out 31 in 22.2 innings.

Although he didn’t figure in the decision, Akin was the starter Aug. 31 when the Orioles took a 4-3 road verdict over the Blue Jays.

The thing about Tanner Roark is that there's no such thing as a bad one-year deal. What's that now? *Checks notes* Oh, it was a two-year deal? And the #BlueJays listed the second year as a selling point for the signing? Nevermind then.

— Gregor Chisholm (@GregorChisholm) September 23, 2020

Roark (2-3, 7.01 ERA) was signed to a two-year, $24 million contract by the Jays. It’s not been money well spent.

He’s walked 21 and served up 14 homers in 43.2 innings. The Jays have lost Roark’s last three starts, surrendering 32 runs in the process.

Pick: Orioles’ moneyline (+126); 1.0 unit to win 1.26 units.

Pick #2 – Rockies vs Diamondbacks: Under 9.5 Runs

Diamondbacks lefty Madison Bumgarner (0-4. 7.36 ERA) looked like the guy who was 2014 World Series MVP in his last start and not the fellow who is winless this season. He blanked the Houston Astros over five innings, checking them on two hits and one walk while striking out seven.

Rockies southpaw Kyle Freeland didn’t have his best stuff in his last start at San Francisco. Still, he battled for six innings, allowing just two earned runs.

Madison Bumgarner has a .436 xwOBA this year, which ranks last (111 of 111) among MLB starters. Bumgarner signed a 4-year/$79 million deal with the D-Backs last offseason.

— Luke Arkins (@luke_arkins) September 27, 2020

The total has gone under 9.5 runs in three of Freeland’s last four starts. Overall, he’s receiving 4.16 runs of support per start this season.

The total has also gone under 9.5 in three of Bumgarner’s last four starts. The Diamondbacks are supporting him with 4.01 runs per game.

Pick: Under 9.5 (-118); 1.18 units to win 1.0 unit.