Pirates vs Nationals Expert Picks & Player Props to Bet (July 4)

• The Washington Nationals find themselves as +138 home underdogs to the Pittsburgh Pirates
• Braxton Ashcraft provides a massive pitching advantage for Pittsburgh
• Read below for the my Pirates vs Nationals prediction, latest odds and prop picks

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After blasting the Pirates 9-5 to open to their 3-game set on Friday, the Washington Nationals look to go back-to-back and take four of five from Pittsburgh.

However, the books aren’t riding with the home team in the latest MLB odds, setting the Pirates as the betting favorite on the road, which likely comes from the advantage on the mound with Braxton Ashcraft dealing for Pittsburgh.

First pitch is scheduled for 11:05am ET from Nationals Park in DC, in a game that can be seen live nationally on MLB TV.

Pirates vs Nationals Odds

The graphic above shows the best available odds, which are subject to change. Use theScore Bet promo code to wager on Pirates vs Nationals and other MLB action.

Pittsburgh enters as a clear road favorite, getting -164 odds to win at FanDuel. The runline opened at -1.5 (-108) for the visitors at DraftKings, but slight juice adjustments have shifted it to -104.

Washington is the underdog, and taking the home team to win straight up comes with +140 odds at bet365. They are getting 1.5 runs on the spread at BetMGM, but that comes with noticeable -110 juice.

As for the total, Over bettors should head to bet365, where the like is set at 9.5 runs. Under bettors should drift over to DK, where the line is set to 10 runs.

PIT Pirates vs WAS Nationals Expert Picks

• Best Bet: Pirates Moneyline (-166 at Caesars)

Washington averages 5.47 runs per game at Nationals Park, ranking second in the league. A significant portion of this production comes from power, as they hit 1.42 home runs per home game.

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh holds its own on the road. Generating 4.73 runs per contest as the visiting team, they are highly capable of keeping pace. The true disparity lies on the mound. The Nationals yield a 4.64 cumulative ERA and a 1.38 WHIP, heavily exposing them against opposing contact hitters.

There’s a distinct advantage for Detroit as I compare the MLB probable pitchers.

Pittsburgh sends Braxton Ashcraft to the mound. Across 102.2 innings, he holds a 3.33 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and strikes out 10.08 batters per nine innings. He has been exceptional at limiting the long ball, surrendering just 0.96 home runs per nine.

In contrast, the Nationals rely on Zack Littell. The underlying metrics suggest a difficult afternoon for the home club. Littell brings a 6.07 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP into this holiday contest. His 5.59 K/9 shows an inability to miss bats, which is a major concern.

Given the starting pitching disparity, I am confident backing Pittsburgh outright. Ashcraft provides a distinct edge in generating swing-and-miss opportunities, while Littell relies heavily on a pitch-to-contact approach. The Pirates offense is hitting a combined .260 this season, which sets up perfectly against Littell.

Pirates vs Nationals Props

Endy Rodriguez To Record a Hit (-210 at FanDuel): Endy Rodriguez is swinging a hot bat right now. He has recorded at least one base hit in seven of his last eight games, giving him an 88.0% hit rate over that span. Facing a contact-heavy pitcher like Littell, Rodriguez should have ample opportunities to put the ball in play and extend his streak.

Zack Littell Over 3.5 Earned Runs (+111 at Caesars): Another strong angle is fading Washington on the mound. Backing Littell to allow over 3.5 earned runs correlates nicely with a Pirates victory. Washington carries a 4.64 overall team ERA. If Pittsburgh chases Littell early, they get to attack a taxed and vulnerable bullpen.