Red Sox’ AL East Division Odds Sink to +1233 after Losing Series to Orioles; Yankees Improve to -316
- The Red Sox dropped two of three in their opening series with the Orioles
- Following the disappointing opening series, Boston’s AL East odds have dropped
- Are they a good buy at tumbling value, or is it best to ignore them?
It was not a good opening weekend for the Boston Red Sox.
With high hopes for a shortened 2020, the Red Sox dropped two in a row following an emphatic Opening Day win. And it’s not just how they lost those games, but who they lost to.
The Baltimore Orioles. The same Orioles who won 54 games in 2019.
So is the lackluster result a trend that will continue this season, or is it a blip on just a very small radar?
2020 AL East Odds
| Team | 2019 Record | 2020 Record | Odds at FanDuel |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | 103-59 | 2-1 | -310 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 96-66 | 3-1 | +300 |
| Boston Red Sox | 84-78 | 1-3 | +1300 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 67-95 | 2-2 | +2300 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 54-108 | 2-1 | +10000 |
Odds as of July 27th
As 2020 has ticked away, the Red Sox performance the 2020 AL East divisional odds have continually gotten worse.
On February 5th they sat at +475. After a steep drop +1000, they bounced back to +897. Since then, they’ve gradually slid farther and farther back, falling from +1033 to +1233 after their opening series.
Their current number represents the team’s longest odds of the year.
Red Sox Starters a Source of Weakness
If there was one big problem for Boston in their two losses, it was their starting pitching.
Without Chris Sale to take the ball in the season opener, the assignment fell to Nate Eovaldi. Eovaldi shone, allowing one run on five hits and a walk in six innings of work. He also struck out four, and 12 of his 18 outs were ground balls.
Then things fell apart.
Red Sox Starters vs Orioles
| 5.0 | Innings Pitched | 3.2 |
| 5/4 | R/ER | 6/6 |
| 6 | Hits | 6 |
| 2 | Strikeouts | 0 |
| 2 | Walks | 3 |
| 0 | Home Runs Allowed | 2 |
Perez came to the Sox from Minnesota. He has a career 4.73 ERA, but has finished north of 5.00 each of the last two seasons. Weber is a journeyman spot-starter that has struggled in his MLB career.
Martin Perez, Dylan Covey, Ryan Weber, Josh Osich & Jeffrey Springs. Hard to believe this is real
— Ken Laird (@KenLairdWEEI) July 28, 2020
These results highlight a huge weakness for the Red Sox.
Bullpen Games Will Highlight Series vs Mets
As they get set to continue a four-game, home-and-home with the New York Mets, the Boston bats will be in for a challenge. While Tuesday’s starter is TBD, Boston saw Michael Wacha on Monday and then gets Jacob deGrom and Steven Matz.
The offense should start to warm up, but the pitching will be their downfall again.
In defense of the Red Sox, who possibly could have known that the 1-2 combo of Josh Osich and Jeffrey Springs would not have been dominant against a major league team?
— Michael Hurley (@michaelFhurley) July 28, 2020
Josh Osich and Jeffrey Springs tag-teamed Monday night and it was awful. They combined to allow seven runs over 3.1 innings.
Matt Hall, owner of a 9.48 ERA, will get the ball on Tuesday. Boston is already at the point in their season where they’re throwing anything against the wall in hopes it will stick. Their best bet is if they can convince Zack Godley that it’s 2018.
Red Sox Can’t Count on Eduardo Rodriguez
The player they’re missing the most is Eduardo Rodriguez. But Rodriguez is locked in a scary battle with Covid-19. The virus has led to myocarditis, short for inflammation of the heart muscle.
Without Sale, Rodriguez was primed to be Boston’s ace. But that’s the least of anyone’s concerns.
27 year old Eduardo Rodriguez is dealing with a heart condition from his battle with COVID.
His quote: “Now that I know what it is, I’m still scared, but now I know exactly what it is.”
He is not an expected road block. He’s a person who can’t work and is scared. https://t.co/4MAxLENhKb
— Tanya Ray Fox (@TanyaRayFox) July 27, 2020
There’s a distinct possibility that Rodriguez may not pitch this season. That makes the Red Sox already weak rotation even more of a liability.
Boston a Long Shot in AL East
We may only be a handful of games into 2020, but we know a few things. The Red Sox are running out of starting pitching options, and the Blue Jays bullpen minus Ken Giles is an adventure.
You can’t back either team in the AL East, especially the Red Sox. Not with that…’rotation’.
The division comes down to the Rays and the Yankees. I’m still backing Tampa, but it’s hard to see anyone else becoming a factor.
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
