Red Sox vs Pirates Picks, Predictions & Splits on Aug 16
By Chris Amberley in MLB Baseball
Published:
- The series finale of the Red Sox vs Pirates three-game set goes down this afternoon
- I’m backing Boston today to rough up a depleted Pittsburgh staff
- Get the top Red Sox vs Pirates picks, predictions and splits for Aug 16, below
The Boston Red Sox (66-57) wrap up their series against the Pittsburgh Pirates (60-65) this afternoon at PNC Park. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35 PM ET, with broadcast coverage on SportsNet PT and NESN.
After dropping the series opener, Boston blanked Pittsburgh 4-0 yesterday. The Red Sox played flawless defense, supported by a Wilyer Abreu home run and a dominant start from Sonny Gray. Conversely, the Pirates scattered just six hits and failed to provide any run support for starter Jared Jones.
Sitting seventh overall, Boston enters as the road favorite in the MLB odds aiming to strengthen its postseason resume. Pittsburgh steps up to the plate as the home underdog hoping to spark an offense that has stalled. Below, I’ll break down the top Red Sox vs Pirates picks, predictions and splits for the Aug 16th showdown.
Red Sox vs Pirates Picks and Predictions
I am backing the visitors on the runline for this interleague clash. Pittsburgh has struggled immensely over its last 10 games, posting just a 30.0% win rate. When labeled as the underdog during that stretch, they are a dismal 1-4.
Boston boasts a 3.48 overall team ERA, ranking second in the league. They face a Pirates rotation in flux, relying on a heavily taxed relief corps that holds a 4.32 collective ERA. Boston ranks fifth in road OPS (.726), making them highly capable of extending early leads.
When browsing MLB player props, I am targeting Patrick Sandoval to clear his strikeout total. He sports an 8.70 K/9 rate, utilizing his secondary pitches to escape jams. Considering the home side’s recent offensive slump, Sandoval should work deep enough to easily rack up five punch-outs.
I also like the Under 8.5 runs in this matchup. Boston’s 3.48 ERA ranks second in baseball, while Pittsburgh’s staff holds a respectable 4.32 ERA despite their rotation upheaval. The Under has attracted 66.0% of the total handle, reflecting sharp confidence that both pitching staffs will keep runs at a premium. With Sandoval capable of pitching deep and Pittsburgh likely deploying its high-strikeout bullpen arms behind Lake Bachar, expect a tight, low-scoring contest. The best price on the Under 8.5 sits at -113 (53 cents) at Polymarket. Don’t forget to claim the Polymarket promo code for a bonus to bet on MLB.
My Best Bets:
- Red Sox -1.5 (+170 at Polymarket)
- Sandoval 5+ Ks (-118 at Kalshi)
- Under 8.5 runs (-113 at Polymarket)
Patrick Sandoval vs Lake Bachar Stats
Despite a respectable 3.30 ERA over 30.0 innings with his current club, Sandoval has navigated heavy traffic, allowing a .319 opponent batting average. He mitigates damage by utilizing his strikeout arsenal to strand runners.
Pittsburgh counters with Lake Bachar as an opener. Bachar has only logged 7.0 innings of work this season for his current team, posting a 5.14 ERA. However, he has stifled hitters on a per-at-bat basis, yielding a minuscule .192 batting average while recording 9 strikeouts per nine innings.
When reviewing the MLB batter vs pitcher stats, the most glaring takeaway is the near-total lack of history. Neither roster offers a meaningful sample size against the opposing starter.
In the few recorded at-bats, Pittsburgh infielder Brandon Lowe hit a home run against Sandoval despite striking out twice. On the other end of the spectrum, regulars Bryan Reynolds and Jared Triolo have each gone hitless in three at-bats against the left-hander.
Red Sox vs Pirates Odds
Odds as of August 16, 2026, at 11:53 PM ET from bet365. Claim your bet365 bonus now before placing your wagers.
Red Sox vs Pirates Splits
The MLB public betting splits reveal a massive influx of cash backing Boston. The visitors command an overwhelming 93.2% of the moneyline stake, indicating that respected capital trusts their qualitative pitching advantage. Consequently, only 6.8% of the handle is backing the home side to pull off an upset.
The runline presents a similar story. While a slight majority of betting tickets back the home underdog, a staggering 87.7% of the runline handle is laying the runs with Boston. Bettors wagering larger amounts expect a multi-run victory.
When looking at the 8.5 run total, the market anticipates a lower-scoring affair. The Under accounts for 66.0% of the total stake. With Boston rolling out a strong pitching staff, the consensus suggests both teams will struggle to push across runs in bunches.
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
