Red Sox vs Rays Best Player Props to Bet for Game 1 Including Over/Under Home Runs and Strikeouts
- The Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays kickoff their AL Division Series tonight in Tampa
- See the best hitter and pitcher props to bet in Game 1
- Sascha Paruk’s MLB player props record: 2-1 (+0.36 units); 1.0 unit wagered on all picks
Both American League Division Series start today with the White Sox and Astros playing in the afternoon window and the Red Sox and Rays in nightcap.
The pitching matchup features lefty Eduardo Rodriguez (13-8, 4.74 ERA, 1.39 WHIP) versus right-handed rookie Shane McClanahan (10-6, 3.43 ERA, 1.27 WHIP).
The table below shows the main batter and pitcher props for Game 1 tonight, followed by my picks.
Red Sox vs Rays Game 1 Pitcher and Hitter Props
| Player | Home Run | Hits | RBI | Pitcher Strikeouts | Home Runs Allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enrique Hernandez (BOS) | 0.5 (+320o/-500u) | 0.5 (-165o/+125u) | 0.5 (+230o/-340u) | N/A | N/A |
| Hunter Renfroe (BOS) | 0.5 (+400o/-650u) | 1.5 (-160o/+120u) | 0.5 (+215o/-300u) | N/A | N/A |
| J.D. Martinez (BOS) | 0.5 (+500o/-900u) | 0.5 (-175o/+130u) | 0.5 (+230o/-330u) | N/A | N/A |
| Jordan Luplow (TB) | 0.5 (+500o/-900u) | 0.5 (-140o/+105u) | 0.5 (+215o/-300u) | N/A | N/A |
| Kyle Schwarber (BOS) | 0.5 (+400o/-650u) | 0.5 (-120o/-110u) | 0.5 (+250o/-360u) | N/A | N/A |
| Manuel Margot (TB) | 0.5 (+800o/-2500u) | 0.5 (-190o/+140u) | 0.5 (+250o/-360u) | N/A | N/A |
| Nelson Cruz (TB) | 0.5 (+320o/-500u) | 0.5 (-200o/+150u) | 0.5 (+230o/-330u) | N/A | N/A |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 (+450o/-750u) | 0.5 (-200o/+150u) | 0.5 (+215o/-300u) | N/A | N/A |
| Randy Arozarena (TB) | 0.5 (+450o/-750u) | 1.5 (-225o/+165u) | 0.5 (+230o/-330u) | N/A | N/A |
| Wander Franco (TB) | 0.5 (+550o/-1000u) | 0.5 (-250o/+180u) | 0.5 (+215o/-300u) | N/A | N/A |
| Xander Bogaerts (BOS) | 0.5 (+550o/-1100u) | 0.5 (-200o/+150u) | 0.5 (+215o/-300u) | N/A | N/A |
| Yandy Diaz (TB) | O 0.5 (+650o/-1400u) | 0.5 (-220o/+170u) | 0.5 (+200o/-280u) | N/A | N/A |
| Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS) | N/A | N/A | N/A | 4.5 (-165o/+125u) | 0.5 (-105o/-125u) |
| Shane McClanahan (TB) | N/A | N/A | N/A | 4.5 (-105o/-125u) | 0.5 (+125o/-165u) |
Odds as of October 6th at DraftKings.
Arozarena an October Beast
Randy Arozarena was an absolute monster in his first taste of postseason action last year. He set a new MLB record with ten homers in a single playoffs. His 20 regular-season homers this season were lower than most were expecting, but now is a good time to buy low on a player who may have some Reggie Jackson-type October magic in his veins.
If Arozarena goes deep tonight, you will not see his home-run odds at +450 for Game 2.
He has decent numbers against Rodriguez: 4-for-11 with a double, good for a .364 average and .818 OPS. He hasn’t gone deep against the lefty, but he had a .921 OPS against lefties this year (including half of his home runs in 125 fewer at-bats) compared to a .750 OPS versus righties.
Pick: Arozarena over 0.5 home runs (+450); risk 1.0 unit
Rodriguez Has Strikeout Stuff
Eduardo Rodriguez had a career-best 10.59 strikeouts-per-nine this season. His over/under tonight is at a very achievable 4.5, though it’s juiced to the over at -165.
He faced the Rays four times this season, striking out at least five batters on three occasions and averaging exactly six strikeouts over those four starts.
While the Tampa lineup is relentless and potent from top to bottom, the Rays actually whiff a lot more than casual fans might expect. Their 24.8% strikeout rate was tied for second-worst in the American League (behind Detroit and tied with Seattle).
The risk here is that Boston manager Alex Cora has a short hook on his starter. But shouldn’t be a huge concern. The Red Sox’ rotation is thin. Cora will want to get innings out of his starter tonight knowing that he may need his bullpen to pick up the slack later in the series.
Pick: Rodriguez over 4.5 strikeouts (-165); risk 1.0 unit
Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has been with SBD since 2014. He specializes in football, basketball, politics, baseball, and hockey.
