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Twins Set to Fend Off Indians in AL Central as Odds Improve From -180 to -200

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The Twins are back to their winning ways headed to September. Photo from @Twins (Twitter).
  • The Twins’ average odds to win the AL Central have lengthened to -200
  • Minnesota has a 2.5 game lead on Cleveland and a much easier schedule down the stretch
  • Are the Twins a good value to win the division?

The Minnesota Twins have righted the ship and are back to being the dominant force in the AL Central. They are fresh off a four game sweep of the Texas Rangers and are now a big favorite to win their first division crown since 2010.

2019 American League Central Odds

Team 2019 AL Central Odds
Minnesota Twins -180
Cleveland Indians +120
Chicago White Sox +100000
Detroit Tigers +400000
Kansas City Royals +400000

Odds taken 08/19/19

Their average AL Central odds have lengthened from -180 to -200, and although some books are a little less bullish on them, the numbers suggest they’re a much better team than the second place Indians, and with a much more favorable schedule down the stretch, the Twinkies are quite well positioned.

Numbers Don’t Lie

Minnesota is a much better offensive team than Cleveland and it’s not particularly close. They’ve scored 127 more runs, racked up 132 more hits and slugged 66 more home runs.

They also have a better team batting average, OBP, and slugging percentage than the Indians and if the gap wasn’t already large enough, the Twins welcomed back slugger Nelson Cruz to the lineup on Monday after he missed the last 10 days due to a wrist injury.

Since May 16th, only Mike Trout has more home runs than Cruz, and his presence in the middle of the order solidifies their offense as one of the best in baseball.

A Cupcake Schedule

Minnesota entered play Monday with a two and a half game lead over Cleveland, and that gap should widen over the next few weeks given the Twins very favorable schedule down the stretch. Just 12 of Minnesota’s remaining 38 games are against teams with a record above .500, and none of those opponents have a run differential anywhere close to their own.

Meanwhile, half of Cleveland’s remaining games are against teams either holding a playoff spot, or in the thick of the postseason race, including six pivotal contests against Minnesota. If the Twins can take four or five of those games, they’ll be incredibly tough to catch, and even if they split them down the middle, the Indians will still have their work cut out for them.

Take the Twins in This Race

Minnesota has already blown a big division lead once this season and I don’t expect them to do it again now that they have a cushion over Cleveland. Their remaining schedule is incredibly soft, and with a more potent offense, and a healthier roster than the Indians, they should have no issue wrapping up AL Central.

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