Yankees 2020 Playoff Odds as Long as +1400 at Multiple Sportsbooks; Any Value Betting NYY to Miss Postseason?

Aaron Judge taking BP
Aaron Judge is doubtful for opening day, just one of numerous key injuries to hit the Yankees in the preseason. Photo by Keith Allison (flickr).
  • The Yankees’ odds of missing the playoffs haven’t been hurt despite a string of spring training injuries
  • At -4000, NY is still rated at having the best chance of reaching the postseason of any American League team
  • Is there any value betting on the Pinstripes to miss out at +1400?

The New York Yankees’ injuries woes of 2019 are bleeding into 2020.

The Yankees placed 30 different players on the injured list last year. They have already been hit by another rash of injuries in spring training, but the oddsmakers still give them the best chance of any American League team of reaching the postseason. They are currently -4000 to make the playoffs and +1400 to miss out.

2020 American League Make/Miss Playoff Odds

Team Odds to Make Playoffs Odds to Miss Playoffs
Yankees -4000 +1400
Astros -350 +290
Twins -225 +185
Rays -120 +100
Athletics +125 -145
Indians +150 -170
Angels +180 -220
White Sox +185 -225
Red Sox +210 -250
Rangers +400 -500
Blue Jays +600 -800
Mariners +800 -1200
Royals +1400 -2500
Orioles +2000 -5000
Tigers +2000 -5000

Odds taken March 5.

The Yankees’ most significant injury is to right-hander Luis Severino. He will miss the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.

Another member of the rotation, righty James Paxton, is expected to be out through the end of May. He underwent back surgery in February to repair a herniated disc and remove a cyst.

The Yankees will almost certainly be without their powerful corner outfield tandem of Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge when they open the season March 26 at Baltimore. Stanton has a strained right calf and Judge is sidelined with soreness in his right pectoral muscle.

Yet, according to the odds, the Yankees are still expected to be a powerhouse this year as can be seen in the 2020 MLB playoff odds.

Filling the Rotation Holes

The Yankees must fill two holes in the rotation behind Gerrit Cole, Masahiro Tanaka, and JA Happ.

Compounding matters is that right-hander Domingo German, who had an 18-4 record last season, must serve the final 63 games of the 81-game suspension he received last September for violating MLB’s domestic violence policy.

Left-hander Jordan Montgomery and right-hander Jonathan Loaisiga are the most likely to take the spots of Severino and Paxton.

Montgomery has impressed this spring after being limited to two late-season appearances last season following his recovery from Tommy John surgery.

Montgomery went 9-7 with a 3.88 ERA in 28 starts as a rookie in 2017. Loaisiga has a big arm but has gone 4-2 with a 4.79 ERA in 24 career major-league games, including eight starts.

Tauchman Must Provide Sock

In the outfield, Mike Tauchman and Clint Frazier will be tasked with be tasked with trying to replace the powerful bats of Stanton and Judge.

Tauchman was a pleasant surprise last season after being acquired from the Colorado Rockies late in spring training. He batted .277/.361/.504 with 13 home runs in 87 games.

Frazier was a heralded prospect but has not gained a foothold in the major leagues. Part of that has to do with the Yankees’ outfield depth but some of it is because he has been inconsistent during his stints in New York.

Frazier has played in 123 major-league games over the past three seasons, hitting .254/.308/.463 with 16 home runs.

Reprising 2019

General manager Brian Cashman and manager Aaron Boone were able to navigate through all the injuries last season as the Yankees won the AL East and came within two games of reaching the World Series.

Cashman has built a roster with admirable depth and Boone is good at putting the pieces together.

There is no reason to think they won’t do it again. That makes the idea of betting on the Yankees to miss the playoffs a waste of money.

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