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Yankees vs Twins Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends for May 16

Ethan Stone

by Ethan Stone in MLB Baseball

Updated May 16, 2024 · 6:28 AM PDT

May 14, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; New York Yankees first baseman Anthony Rizzo (48) celebrates with right fielder Juan Soto (22) after scoring a run against the Minnesota Twins in the second inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
  • The New York Yankees face off against the Minnesota Twins in Minneapolis on Thursday, May 16 at 1:10 p.m.
  • The Yankees are the top team in the AL East while the Twins battle at 3rd in a top-heavy AL Central.
  • See the New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins odds, starting pitchers, and predictions for May 16.

The New York Yankees (29-15, 16-9 away, 18-24-2 O/U) and Minnesota Twins (24-18, 11-10 home) are set to face off in the third and final game of their series Thursday afternoon at 1:10 p.m. ET from Target Field in Minneapolis.

The Yankees won the first game of the series, 5-1 behind an outstanding outing from Giancarlo Stanton in the batter’s box and Carlos Rodón’s strong 6 innings pitched. They took the series on Wednesday night.

How should you bet Thursday afternoon for the final game of the Yankees-Twins series? We’ve made our predictions below.

New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
New York Yankees +105 -1.5 (+165) O 8 (-115)
Minnesota Twins -125 +1.5 (-200) U 8 (-105)

Odds via Fanatics Sportsbook May 15. Check out our Fanatics promo code for more details.

The Yankees are the runline favorite for Thursday afternoon, but the Twins are given -200 odds to keep the game within a run at home. New York is given +165 odds to win by more than a pair of runs.

Games 1 and 2 in the series fell under the total of 8 set by Fanatics for Game 3 but remember we’re dealing with one of the top batting squads in the majors in the Yankees and a slightly better than average squad in Minnesota. The Yankees are one of just 10 teams in the major league to have scored over 200 runs so far this season, with the Twins just barely missing the cut at 196.

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Yankees Betting Trends

The Yankees were listed as the underdog for the first time since May 1 on Tuesday night and they immediately proved the streak should have run a little longer with a 5-1 win. The Yankees were then once again listed as the underdog in Game 2 Wednesday night before taking home a 4-0 victory.

New York has done well on the road this season, and they’ve done even better as the road underdog. The Yankees are 11-5 in such matchups this season.

Finally, New York is 15-10 against the runline as the away team this season and 22-21 in all games.  They have been doing better in this department though, winning 8 of their last 10 games against the line.

New York tends to hit the under more often, sitting at a 43.9% over percentage.

Twins Betting Trends

Compared to a lot of other teams around the majors, the Twins have struggled some at home. They still have a winning record, but just barely. The Twins are 11-10 at home and 8-6 as home favorites. For reference, the Twins are an incredible 9-2 as away favorites and 13-8 as the away team straight up. It’s not often you see a team perform better on the road than at home.

This puts them in a strange situation Thursday afternoon facing a Yankees team that plays well on the road. From a betting perspective the Twins and Yankees are as even as can be against the runline, both sitting at a 51.2% cover percentage.

Minnesota is just under 50% at 20-21 when it comes to over percentage.

Yankees vs. Twins Prediction (May 16)

Minnesota has faced a weak schedule so far this season and most of their losses have come against the top half of the league (Mariners, Orioles, Blue Jays and Red Sox).

The Yankees are the best team they’ve faced yet, and Games 1 and 2 may have exposed that. The Yankees are a strong batting team but boast the No. 2 pitching unit in the majors behind only Boston and maybe Los Angeles. Even if it is Game 3, we’ll take the under 8 runs and Yankees to cover.

NYY vs MIN picks: Yankees -1.5 (+165), Under 8 runs (-105)

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