Ezra Elliott vs Damien Anderson Prediction, Odds & Best Bets: UFC Oklahoma City

• Undefeated prospects Ezra Elliott and Damien Anderson open the UFC Oklahoma City card on Saturday, July 18th
• Anderson is a slight -120 favorite at BetMGM, with the grappling ace drawing the sharper money
• See my Elliott vs Anderson prediction, best bets and odds below

The UFC returns to Oklahoma City for the first time since 2017, and the night kicks off with a pair of unbeaten featherweights making their promotional debuts. Ezra Elliott and Damien Anderson both took this fight on short notice, and both walk in without a loss on their record.

Elliott is 7-0 out of Arizona with five submission wins. Anderson is 5-0 out of Dallas, a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt nicknamed “Demon Hands.”

Here’s my Elliott vs Anderson prediction, best bets and the full odds.

Elliott vs Anderson Prediction

Anderson is my play here. He’s the more decorated grappler of the two, with years of high-level BJJ before he ever put on the gloves for MMA. Both men are unbeaten, and both took this on short notice, but Anderson has faced tougher competition on the mat.

That matters, because this fight is likely headed to the canvas. Elliott leans on his offensive wrestling to control opponents, and that plays right into Anderson’s hands. Demon Hands has finished four of his five wins by submission, and Elliott’s habit of hunting takedowns could hand him the opening.

Elliott is dangerous in his own right. His ground-and-pound is nasty when he gets on top, and if he lands early he can finish this before the grappling ever tilts Anderson’s way. I just think the black belt is the more polished operator once it hits the mat, and I wouldn’t chase the price past -150.

• Elliott vs Anderson Pick: Damien Anderson (-120 at BetMGM)

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Elliott vs Anderson Best Bets

If you want to boost the price on my main read, Anderson by submission at +275 is the way to do it. Four of his five wins have come by tap, and the kneebar he hit last time out shows he’ll attack from anywhere. Elliott is comfortable on the ground, but comfortable and world-ranked aren’t the same thing.

The other angle I like is this ending inside the distance. Both men finish people, and neither has shown much interest in reaching the scorecards. The “No” on the distance sits at -250, and a straight submission on either fighter pays +100.

Elliott at +100 is a fair flier if you buy the striking and the takedown-first approach carrying him home. He’s the bigger man and the busier wrestler. I just prefer the finishing resume on Anderson’s side at a nearly identical price.

• Best Bet: Damien Anderson (-120 at BetMGM)
• Secondary Play: Anderson by Submission (+275 at BetMGM)
• Prop: Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance (-250)

Elliott vs Anderson Odds

Anderson sits at -120, an implied probability of about 55%. Elliott comes back at +100, or an even 50%. That’s about as tight as a line gets, which fits a matchup between two unbeaten fighters with no UFC tape to separate them.

The submission markets tell you where both guys do their best work, with Anderson at +275 and Elliott at +300 to win by tap.

Odds as of July 18th at BetMGM. Grab a BetMGM promo code for UFC Oklahoma City or browse UFC betting apps.