McGregor vs Holloway Odds: Why the Line Keeps Moving Toward Conor

• Conor McGregor faces Max Holloway in the UFC 329 main event on Saturday, July 11th
• Holloway opened as a heavy favorite, but the line has tightened considerably
• See how the McGregor vs Holloway odds have moved and where the money is going below

Conor McGregor hasn’t fought since July 2021. He’s 1-3 in his last four. He’s moving up to welterweight, a division he’s never competed in professionally. And bettors are hammering him anyway.

McGregor meets Max Holloway in the UFC 329 main event Saturday, July 11th at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. It’s a rematch of their August 2013 fight, which McGregor won by unanimous decision when both men were featherweights.

Here’s a look at the early-week McGregor vs Holloway odds and why the line keeps drifting toward the Irishman.

McGregor vs Holloway Odds

Holloway sits at -225, an implied probability of about 69%. McGregor comes back at +185, which works out to roughly 35%. That’s a sizeable gap, but it’s a lot smaller than where this thing started.

McGregor opened as high as +250 at BetMGM. He’s now down to +185. Holloway has gone the other way, sliding from -400 toward -225. The market has quietly given McGregor about seven points of implied probability without a single punch being thrown.

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Odds as of Monday, July 6th at BetMGM. Bet on McGregor vs Holloway with the BetMGM promo code or browse the best UFC betting apps for Saturday.

Where the McGregor Money Is Going

BetMGM reports that 75% of the money on this fight is on McGregor to win his comeback fight. That’s three-quarters of the handle on a guy who broke his leg the last time we saw him.

This happens every time McGregor fights. The name pulls casual money like nothing else in the sport, and that money doesn’t care about layoffs or weight classes. Books adjust to balance the book, not because they’ve changed their read on the fight.

The opening number gave bettors an easy hook, too. A former two-division champion at +250 who already owns a win over his opponent is a tough price to leave alone, even 13 years later. Once that action came in, the payout shrank.

McGregor vs Holloway Prediction Markets

The prediction markets tell the same story. Kalshi had Holloway at 76% and McGregor at 24% back on May 17th. Today, Holloway sits at 65% with McGregor up to 35%.

That’s an 11-point swing toward McGregor, and it’s come on serious volume. Over $15.4 million has already been traded on this fight. Kalshi’s method of victory market has Holloway by KO/TKO/DQ at 51%, with McGregor by KO/TKO/DQ at 26%.

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Prediction market prices via Kalshi as of Monday, July 6th. Get the Kalshi referral code to trade on UFC 329.

Why Holloway Is Still the Favorite

Strip out the McGregor noise, and the case for Holloway is pretty simple. He’s been fighting. McGregor hasn’t.

Holloway (27-9) knocked out Justin Gaethje at UFC 300, beat Dustin Poirier at UFC 318, and lost a wide decision to Charles Oliveira at UFC 326 in March. That Oliveira loss was ugly, 50-45 on all three cards, and it’s part of why the opening number on Holloway looked steep to a lot of people.

But the volume gap is enormous. Holloway attempted 744 significant strikes against Calvin Kattar, landing 445. McGregor’s peak recent output was 37 landed on 76 attempts against Khabib Nurmagomedov. Over 25 minutes, that difference compounds.

McGregor (22-6) does have the edge in efficiency. He landed 73.08% of his significant strikes against Donald Cerrone and 71.05% of his significant strikes against Poirier in their third fight. When he connects, he ends things. His whole case is landing something terminal in the opening rounds before the pace turns on him.

McGregor vs Holloway Line Movement Takeaway

This move looks like demand, not information. Nothing has come out about Holloway that would justify shaving nearly two full points off his price. What’s happened is that a lot of people want a McGregor ticket, and books have priced accordingly.

It’s worth remembering what that does to value. McGregor at +250 needed to win 28.6% of the time to break even. At +185, that number climbs to 35.1%. The cushion that made him attractive in the first place is mostly gone.

If the pattern holds, Holloway’s price should keep improving as more McGregor money comes in through fight week. We’ll have full UFC 329 predictions closer to Saturday.