- The fight between Donald Cerrone and Justin Gaethje goes down September 14, 2019
- Can we expect line movement?
- Who’s the best bet right now for this match?
Vancouver, Canada has gotten a tremendous main event for the UFC’s return there. In the lightweight division, two fan favorites in Donald Cerrone and Justin Gaethje will throw down in a fight that promises to bring fireworks.
Although the fight is still well over a month away on September 14, 2019, online sportsbooks have released the opening odds for the fight.
Donald Cerrone vs. Justin Gaethje Opening Odds
Odds taken 07/23/19.
Will the Line Move?
This is a very hard fight to call. But, yes I expect the line to move. I think the oddsmakers opened it too high on Gaethje and a lot of action will come in on the fan-favorite in Cerrone.
“Cowboy” also deserves the action to come his way. Time and time again he has proved people wrong like beating Alexander Hernandez and Al Iaquinta.
There, he dominated both and scored a TKO win over Hernandez. Although I expect the line to tighten closer into the +120 range for Cerrone, and into the -150 favorite range for Gaethje, I still think the former World Series of Fighting champion should be favored like he is now.
He frankly deserves to be favored as he has proven success at lightweight with wins over the likes of Michael Johnson, Edson Barboza, and James Vick, and tough wars with Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier that were close fights.
Who is the Best Bet?
I think at +175 there is a ton of value on Donald Cerrone. Which is why I expect the lines to draw closer as the fight gets near. Although I think there is value on “Cowboy” I am not certain he will win this fight. I think this is practically a pick’em fight. Both fighters are among the top-tier at lightweight and have shown they are not someone to be messed with.
Cerrone can utilize his pressure and make this fight similar to what he did against Al Iaquinta where he just dominated it from start to finish.
Gaethje has unreal knockout power and brutal leg kicks that can slow Cerrone down. If he does that he can then land that overhand right and knock him out.
Or, Cerrone can utilize his pressure and make this fight similar to what he did against Al Iaquinta where he just dominated it from start to finish. Regardless, it should be an amazing fight. But one that I think the value is on Cerrone right now, as I am surprised the odds are this far apart to open up.
Value Pick: Donald Cerrone (+175)
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