Pico vs Keita Prediction, Odds & UFC 333 Opening Fight Picks

• Aaron Pico and Losene Keita open the UFC 333 main card in Abu Dhabi
• Pico is a -149 favorite at BetMGM with Keita sitting at +125
• See my expert Pico vs Keita prediction, odds and opening fight picks below

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The featherweight division kicks off UFC 333 as Aaron Pico meets Losene Keita in a three-round bout at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi. The main card begins at 2 p.m. ET on Paramount+ on October 24.

Pico arrives at 14-5 and ranked in a division he is trying to climb. Keita is 17-2 and unranked, and a win here would put him straight into the conversation at 145 pounds.

This is about as clean a stylistic split as the card offers, with heavy hands on one side and a wrestling base on the other. Here is my Pico vs Keita prediction and pick for the UFC 333 opener.

Pico vs Keita Prediction

• Pico vs Keita Pick: Aaron Pico by Decision (+300 at BetMGM)

Pico has the technical edge in this fight on paper, but his biggest concern is durability. He was knocked out by Lerone Murphy in the first round of his promotional debut, stopped by a spinning back elbow at 3:21.

Pico has now been knocked out in his last four losses, each by big, violent attacks. He might have always been a “chinny” fighter, but at some point, the damage adds up.

Keita is exactly the kind of opponent who can exploit that. He needed less than three minutes to put away Muhammadjon Naimov at UFC Paris in September, dropping him twice before finishing with a right hand at 2:54.

The problem for Keita is how he goes looking for those finishes. He tends to overswing when he smells a knockout, and those wide punches are what open the door for a wrestler who changes levels as well as Pico does.

We saw the blueprint against Patricio Pitbull in April. Pico landed six of 13 takedowns, banked 3:25 of control time, and still put up 100 significant strikes on 181 attempts for 55 percent accuracy on his way to a dominant unanimous decision.

That is the version of Pico that gives him the best opportunity to win. If he gets through the opening five minutes without walking into a big shot, his slick boxing and his relentless wrestling should compound on a fighter whose work has been almost entirely at distance.

Pico vs Keita Odds

Sportsbooks have the ranked man as the favorite, but not by much for a fight with this kind of grappling gap. Here are the Pico vs Keita odds at BetMGM.

Pico’s 1.67 decimal price converts to approximately -149 and a raw implied probability of 59.9 percent. Keita at +125 sits at 44.4 percent. Those add up to more than 100 percent because the bookmaker’s margin is baked into both sides.

The underdog price reflects the finishing threat Keita brings every time the fight is standing. I expect Pico’s wrestling to be the difference over three rounds, which is why the decision prop at +300 interests me more than laying the moneyline.

Pico vs Keita: Wrestling Against Power

Keita is dangerous for all 15 minutes, but most of his knockouts have come early. His UFC knockout came inside one round, and his power is the reason a 17-2 fighter is priced this close against a ranked opponent.

When he has been pushed past that five-minute opening window, the picture changes. In his split-decision loss to Nathaniel Wood, Keita managed 52 of 119 significant strikes for 43.7 percent and never dropped him across 15 minutes.

Pico goes the other way as fights get longer. He worked through all three rounds against Pitbull, mixing level changes with volume rather than fading, and that is the pattern I expect to decide this one.

Keita still might be the most powerful fighter Pico has ever faced, so the former wrestling prodigy cannot get careless after a good opening round. My Pico vs Keita prediction rests on disciplined boxing and repeated takedown entries, with enough control to win the decision.

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