UFC 280 Odds, Picks & Predictions

• Charles Oliveira battles Islam Makhachev for the vacant UFC Lightweight title in the main event at UFC 280
• UFC bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling faces TJ Dillashaw in the UFC 280 co-main event
• Read on for all the odds and trends ahead of Saturday afternoon’s action at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi

A pair of lengthy win streaks will be on the line as Charles Oliveira takes on Islam Makhachev in the UFC 280 main event, with the winner claiming the vacant UFC lightweight championship. Aljamain Sterling enters the octagon as the undisputed UFC bantamweight champion for the first time in the co-main event of the evening. Sterling puts his belt on the line against TJ Dillashaw, who will be looking to claim the crown for an unprecedented third time.

It’s an early start to UFC 280 prelim action, which gets underway at 10:00am ET on Saturday morning at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The main card follows at 2:00pm ET, with all the action available via PPV.

UFC 280 Odds

Odds at Barstool Sportsbook as of October 19, 2022. Claim a Barstool Sportsbook promo code to bet on UFC 280. 

Makhachev is the favorite in the main event at -175 with Oliveira coming back as a +138 underdog. The co-main between Sterling and Dillashaw has the same line at the moment, with Sterling the -175 betting favorite and Dillashaw the +138 underdog.

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Oliveira vs Makhachev Odds & Prediction

Charles Oliveira briefly rose to the top of the UFC lightweight division during his current 11-fight win streak. However, he was stripped of the title after missing weight ahead of an impressive first-round submission win over Justin Gaethje in his last outing at UFC 274.

Islam Makhachev is pegged at No. 4 on the UFC lightweight rankings after winning 10 straight. That run features four first-round finishes, including a TKO win over Bobby Green in a 160-pound catchweight clash eight months ago at UFC Vegas 49.

Oliveira vs Makhachev Stats

Oliveira has emerged as the most prolific submission specialist in UFC history since joining the promotion over a decade ago. “Do Bronx” forced his past two opponents, Gaethje and Dustin Poirier to tap out, and now holds the UFC record with 16 submission wins, including 10 while fighting as a lightweight.

Charles Oliveira vs Justin Gaethje is one of the best 1 round fights ever!#UFC280 #oliveira pic.twitter.com/EOUSS4OBXh

— GigaDoBronx👑🇧🇷 (@GigaDoBronx) October 19, 2022

Overall, the 33-year-old has finished opponents on 10 occasions during his 11-fight surge. And while he was knocked down once before finishing off Gaethje, he has avoided getting taken down during his current 11-0-0 run.

Oliveira vs Makhachev Recent Fights

Makhachev has matched Oliveira’s dominance during his current 10-0-0 run, tallying six finishes during that stretch, including each of his past four fights. And like Oliveira, Makhachev is an accomplished grappler, with three of his past four wins coming by submission.

#3 – Islam Makhachev def. Dan Hooker
October 30th, UFC 267

Too easy. Makhachev gets the kimura over Hooker and grabs the mic and calls for his title shot. Very reminiscent of when Khabib got the kimura over Michael Johnson at MSG back in 2016. pic.twitter.com/jYDLDFJNG6

— Mathis Desjardins (@m_desjardins00) December 23, 2021

However, there is a stark difference in the level of competition that these two fighters have faced in the lead up to this battle for the belt. Oliveira faced a who’s who of lightweights during his rise to the top of the 155-pound division. In addition to Gaethje and Poirier, Oliveira has also tallied impressive wins over the likes of Tony Ferguson, Michael Chandler. Conversely, the only opponent who current resides among the top 15 lightweights that Makhachev has recently faced is Dan Hooker.

Pick: Oliveira (+138); OVER 2.5 rounds (+108)

Sterling vs Dillashaw Odds & Pick

Aljamain Sterling will be aiming to prove his narrow split decision victory over Petr Yan in their recent rematch at UFC 273 was no fluke. Sterling initially claimed the UFC bantamweight title when Yan was disqualified for throwing an illegal knee in their first clash at UFC 259, and was outpaced by a margin of 139-91 in total strikes in their recent rematch.

UFC 273 results: Aljamain Sterling guts out split decision win over Petr Yan to claim undisputed bantamweight title (@DamonMartin) https://t.co/JPJGDGIc45 pic.twitter.com/LFZRg2axEk

— MMAFighting.com (@MMAFighting) April 10, 2022

His recent rematch with Yan also marked the first time that Sterling has seen action in championship rounds. However, the 33-year-old American has successfully gone the distance in 10 of his 21 career wins.

Sterling vs Dillashaw Recent Fights

It has been 15 months since TJ Dillashaw returned to the octagon after a 30-month layoff. The 36-year-old’s forced exile came after he tested positive for banned substances in the wake of a crushing first-round TKO loss to Henry Cejudo in a bid for the UFC flyweight title at UFC Fight Night 143.

T.J. Dillashaw

UFC Career Recap

Record 13-4

One of the all-time great Bantamweights

An exceptionally skilled fighter in all phases

Chance to become a 3-time UFC champion

He faces Aljamain Sterling at UFC 280

THREAD: pic.twitter.com/1pKY68cGyx

— Ocelot MMA (@Ocelot_MMA) October 19, 2022

While Dillashaw showed no ill effects of the long layoff while disposing of Cory Sandhagen last time out, it remains to be seen how he responds to being off for over a year against a more durable opponent, whom he will have a much hard time taking to the mat.

Pick: Sterling by decision (+145)

Other UFC 280 Picks

• Sean O’Malley (+285): Look for O’Malley to overwhelm Petr Yan with his punching prowess in clash that promises to feature plenty of fisticuffs
• Beneil Dariush (+155): Dariush has gone the distance in his last two outings, but his ability to finish with a single strike adds value to his positive odds.
• Belal Muhammad (+118): Sean Brady arrives in Abu Dhabi undefeated, but will have a far harder time dominating on the may against a grappler like Muhammad.