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UFC Vegas 99 Predictions, Picks & Odds (Saturday, Oct. 19)

Brady Trettenero

By Brady Trettenero in Mixed Martial Arts News

Updated: October 19, 2024 at 12:11 am EDT

Published:


UFC Vegas 99 predictions
May 4, 2024; Rio de Janeiro, RJ, BRAZIL; Michel Pereira (red gloves) fights Ihor Potieria (blue gloves) during UFC 301 at Rio Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jason Silva-USA TODAY Sports
  • We’ve made UFC Vegas 99 predictions for Saturday (October 19)
  • Anthony Hernandez vs Michel Pereira headlines the card
  • Read below for UFC Vegas 99 predictions, odds and props for the biggest fights

UFC Vegas 99 goes down this Saturday, October 19th, 2024 at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas. The entire event streams on ESPN+, with prelims starting at 4pm ET and the main card kicking off at 7pm ET.

A crucial matchup between rising middleweight contenders Anthony Hernandez and Michel Pereira tops the bill. Also featured on the main card is youngster Kyler Phillips vs veteran Rob Font.

Here are our UFC Vegas 98 predictions, picks & odds breakdown

How to Watch UFC Vegas 99

  • Date: Saturday, October 19th, 2024
  • Venue: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV
  • Fight Times: 4pm ET (Prelims), 7pm ET (Main Card)
  • Broadcast: ESPN+ (Full Card)

UFC Vegas 99 Odds – Main Card (October 19)

Fighter Odds Over/Under Rounds
Darren Elkins -122 O 2.5 +120
Daniel Pineda +102 U 2.5 -154
Fighter Odds Over/Under Rounds
Jake Hadley -500 O 2.5 +114
Cameron Smotherman +380 U 2.5 -145
Fighter Odds Over/Under Rounds
Charles Johnson -245 O 2.5 -210
Sumudaerji +200 U 2.5 +160
Fighter Odds Over/Under Rounds
Rob Font +400 O 2.5 -188
Kyler Phillips -535 U 2.5 +145
Fighter Odds Over/Under Rounds
Anthony Hernandez -142 O 2.5 +135
Michel Pereira +120 U 2.5 -175

The biggest favorite on the main card is Kyler Phillips at -535 over Rob Font (+400). Those odds imply Phillips has an 84.25% chance of winning the fight, while Font has just a 20% probability of pulling off the upset.

The most lopsided odds are in the Hadley vs Smotherman fight, with Hadley a hefty -500 favorite (83.33% implied probability) against the +380 underdog Smotherman (20.83%).

The tightest odds on the main card are for the Hernandez vs Pereira headliner, which is close to a pick’em. Hernandez is a slim -142 favorite, giving him 58.68% implied win probability.

 

Odds as of October 18, 2024, at DraftKings Sportsbook. Check out the available DraftKings promos for UFC Vegas 99.

Anthony Hernandez vs Michel Pereira Prediction

The main event features two middleweights riding impressive win streaks. Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez (-130) enters on a five-fight tear, while Michel Pereira (+110) has strung together eight straight victories. Neither guy has a ranked win in the UFC yet, so this is a massive opportunity for both.

Pereira’s move to 185 lbs has paid dividends, as he’s gone 3-0 with three first-round finishes. The bigger frame lets him keep his knockout power without killing himself to make weight. He’s a flashy, unorthodox striker boasting a stellar 94% takedown defense.

29 Age 29
12-2 (1 NC) Record 31-11 (2 NC)
2 Current Win Streak 8
5 KO, 5 Sub Finish Method 11 KO, 9 Sub
Wrestling Primary Strength Striking
Excellent Cardio Improved at 185lbs
[/matchup]

Hernandez’s bread and butter is his relentless wrestling, averaging a whopping seven takedowns per 15 minutes. The problem is he often struggles to keep guys down, which could spell trouble against a larger, stronger middleweight like Pereira. Standing, Pereira’s dynamic striking and footwork will make him a tough target for Hernandez’s shot attempts.

Despite the close odds, I’m leaning towards Pereira here. His combo of rock-solid takedown defense, newfound middleweight size, and proven finishing ability gives him more ways to win. Look for Pereira to stuff the takedowns and eventually land the fight-ending blow.

  • Prediction: Michel Pereira via KO/TKO

Kyler Phillips vs Rob Font Prediction

The co-main sees up-and-comer Kyler Phillips (-425) square off with veteran Rob Font (+330). Phillips’ well-rounded game, mixing high-volume striking with explosive wrestling, has netted him a 6-1 UFC record. Font’s the bigger name, but he’s dropped 4 of his last 5.

Font’s boxing is still crisp, especially that jab, but his chin is becoming a real question mark. He’s getting dropped way too often, and a young gun like Phillips has the tools to exploit that. Expect Phillips to push a crazy pace, mixing up his strikes with well-timed level changes.

Font’s as tough as they come, having never been finished, but Phillips’ power and output might be too much. I’m picking Phillips to get the late stoppage or run away with a clear decision in a fun scrap.

  • Prediction: Kyler Phillips via Decision

Daniel Pineda vs Darren Elkins Prediction

UFC iron man Darren Elkins (-102) takes on the all-action Daniel Pineda (-118) in what should be an absolute banger. Elkins is tough as nails but has a lot of miles on the odometer. Pineda’s a wild man early but tends to fade as the fight goes on.

Elkins’ willingness to eat shots and get into firefights plays right into Pineda’s wheelhouse. If Pineda doesn’t gas himself out swinging for the fences, his power and aggression should be too much for an aging Elkins to handle.

Given Elkins’ legendary durability, Pineda by decision at plus odds isn’t a bad play. But my gut says Pineda finds the finish and puts an end to Elkins’ improbable late-career resurgence.

  • Prediction: Daniel Pineda via KO/TKO

 

Brady Trettenero
Brady Trettenero

Lead NHL & NCAAF Editor

Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.

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