NBA Odds – Free Agent Frenzy Looms

As the NBA’s new television rights deals are set to kick-in, the term “max-contract” is being thrown around as often as “bae.” Both over-used phrases are becoming increasingly annoying, but for differing reasons.

The most recent estimate has the NBA salary cap projected to reach $94 million for the 2016-2017 season, up from the $70 million from last season. As a result of the huge leap, players like DeMar DeRozan and Harrison Barnes, in spite of their poor playoff showings, are in line for massive, max-money paydays. Don’t worry, I’m sure our television rights deals are coming in soon too.

Although many deals will be agreed upon July 1st, pens aren’t allowed to touch paper until July 7th. I have a feeling no one will be going hungry in those six days, and they certainly won’t be once free agency officially opens, as this FA period is shaping up to be the most lucrative in NBA history.

While the Durants, Horfords, and Howards of the league will receive massive deals, there are also a number of  not-quite-household names who will be cashing in. The NBA really should have taken some advice from the Notorious B.I.G. before signing this new television rights deal.

Where are the top FAs going to land? How many will have the foresight to demand player opt-out options for next year (when the cap is set to jump again)? The SBD crew sets the odds!

NBA Free Agency Odds

Odds on where the following free agents will sign for the 2016-17 season

NB: even when the odds below do not expressly include the Lakers, you can assume the Lakers are interested.

Kevin Durant

The Thunder will do everything in their power to convince Kevin Durant to stay put. If he decides he’s had enough, the Warriors and Celtics have the next best shot of luring free agency’s top-prize. If he’s staying in the West, he’s going to a contender; sorry Lakers. – Matt McEwan

(Editor’s note: You might notice that the rest of this list is in alphabetical order. No, I don’t think that D comes before A in the alphabet. But I do think KD is the only free agent that you, dear reader, really care about.)

Ryan Anderson

Wizards: 9/2
Rockets: 5/1
Celtics: 11/2
Kings: 7/1
Pelicans: 9/1
FIELD: 3/2

The Wizards, along with about half of the league, have declared their interest in acquiring a stretch-four. Ryan Anderson is one of the top-options available, and he would come at a more reasonable rate than some of the others. There will be a lot of teams vying for his services when free agency opens. – Matt McEwan

Harrison Barnes

Warriors: 7/3
Lakers: 3/1
Clippers: 4/1
76ers: 5/1
FIELD: 8/1

While some may have thought Barnes played himself out of a max deal in these NBA Finals, now he has the title of U.S. Olympian to bring to the negotiating table (for whatever that’s worth). Given the sour way things ended for him in Golden State, Barnes may want to make a return, but that’s only possible if the Warriors whiff on Durant. After that, there’s still the chance of joining Luke Walton and the Lakers or at least sharing the same arena with the rival Clippers.

Then there’s the hilarious, but not unthinkable, scenario where Jerry Colangelo doesn’t just add Barnes to Team USA, but also brings him to Philadelphia. – Eric Thompson

Nicolas Batum

Hornets: 1/3
Warriors: 12/1
Wizards: 12/1
Grizzlies: 20/1
Knicks: 30/1
FIELD: 49/1

This is basically a done-deal. Batum wants to return, and the Hornets have announced that he is their top priority in free agency. If they can’t reach a deal (which won’t happen), Golden State will be waiting in the wings if Harrison Barnes decides to jet. – Matt McEwan

Kent Bazemore

Hawks: 4/9
Pelicans: 6/1
Mavericks: 8/1
FIELD: 11/1

Having lost DeMarre Carroll last offseason, Atlanta can’t possibly lose another small forward, can they? Don’t sweat that answer too much Hawks fans: it doesn’t sound like Bazemore is going anywhere. – Eric Thompson

Mike Conley

Grizzlies: 4/5
Mavericks: 5/1
Spurs: 8/1
Heat: 20/1
FIELD: 22/3

Both the Grizzlies and Conley are interested in maintaining their relationship. There is no reason for the two sides to part, especially since there isn’t any other Conley-esque point guard for Memphis to chase in this free agent class. – Matt McEwan

DeMar DeRozan

Raptors: 2/13
FIELD: 13/2

The Raptors leading scorer from last season has said he’ll only meet with one team in free agency: his current one. The only way he doesn’t return to the north is if Masai Ujiri was stretching the truth about his willingness to bring back the guard, because in this crazy new NBA, he is most certainly a max-money guy. – Eric Thompson

Tim Duncan

Duncan has to opt into the final year of his deal very soon, but that doesn’t mean he can’t still change his mind and retire down the road. One thing is all but certain, you won’t see the lifetime Spur wearing different colors next fall. He’ll either be in black, or in an ugly Hawaiian shirt on a beach somewhere. – Eric Thompson

Pau Gasol

Spurs: 6/7
Knicks: 3/2
Bulls: 25/1
FIELD: 10/1

Two destinations quickly emerged as the most likely place for Gasol to sign next year, and neither are Chicago. He’d be a natural fit with the veteran-laden Spurs. But he may also want to reunite with Phil Jackson and Derrick Rose in New York, where a center spot just opened up. – Eric Thompson

Eric Gordon

Pacers: 4/3
Knicks: 7/2
Nets: 5/1
76ers: 7/1
Pelicans: 20/1
FIELD: 9/1

Gordon has only been on one winning team in his eight-year career, and that familiarity with losing makes him an achievable asset for some floundering east coast teams. However, if the scorer-for-hire wants a chance to succeed, a return to his hometown and the Pacers looks like the best option. – Eric Thompson

Al Horford

Hawks: 5/3
Magic: 7/1
Lakers: 15/2
Pistons: 8/1
Wizards: 9/1
FIELD: 3/1

The Hawks are trying to get their name linked to Durant in the worst way, but perhaps they should focus more on keeping their own? With both Horford and Kent Bazemore headed for free agency, their spot in the lower-upper-tier of the Eastern Conference is in jeopardy. Most of the teams linked to Horford can’t offer a better chance to win now, but almost all of them do have more cap space to work with. – Eric Thompson

Dwight Howard

Nets: 14/3
Magic: 5/1
Trail Blazers: 11/2
Knicks: 12/1
Rockets: 9/1
FIELD: 17/8

Dwight wants to head to the Big Apple, but the Knicks can’t afford him. Brooklyn was still part of NYC last I checked and Howard hasn’t played for the Nets yet, so the relationship has yet to be tarnished. All the pieces fit! – Matt McEwan

Joakim Noah

Knicks: 1/1
Wizards: 5/1
Nets: 7/1
Bulls: 100/1
FIELD: 4/1

The Knicks need to replace starting centre Robin Lopez after trading him to Chicago to acquire Derrick Rose; and they need to find an affordable option, as well, if GM Phil Jackson is serious about also pursuing Kevin Durant. Noah makes a lot of sense, even more so when you consider his relationship with Rose. – Matt McEwan

Dirk Nowitzki

Mavericks: 1/4
FIELD: 17/4
Nowhere/Retires: 99/1

Dirk opting-out of his contract should be perceived much differently than Chandler Parsons and Deron Williams opting-out. The big-German is not going anywhere, and he seems intent on playing at least one more season. If the Warriors hadn’t entered the conversation, the odds would be even greater in Dallas’ favor. – Matt McEwan

Chandler Parsons

Boston Celtics: 4/1
Washington Wizards: 9/2
Orlando Magic: 19/4
Mavericks: 18/1
Chicago Bulls: 11/2
Dallas Mavericks: 18/1
FIELD: 19/6

Chandler Parsons took to Twitter to stir up the buzz around where he’ll wind up in 2016. Whichever team has the most money is the one who will prevail here, and the Mavs have already wisely stated they won’t offer him a max-deal. The sheen on “max players” is really losing its lustre. – Matt McEwan

Hassan Whiteside

Mavericks: 7/4
Trail Blazers: 5/2
Heat: 3/1
FIELD: 7/1

There’s a boatload of quality big-men out there in free agency – assuming that Bismack Biyombo now counts as a “quality” big-man – but Whiteside’s value on the defensive end alone will earn him a nice raise from the league-minimum deals he’s been living off of. He also says he’s going to test the market, so look for Dallas and Portland to both make a strong push for a much-needed rebounder. – Eric Thompson

 Marvin Williams

Hornets: 8/5
Rockets: 5/1
Wizards: 5/1
Lakers: 8/1
Cavaliers: 15/1
FIELD: 9/1

The Hornets’ second-priority is to resign forward Marvin Williams. The only issue is whether or not they will have enough money leftover after re-upping Batum. My bet is they will. If not, he is another floor-spacing power forward that will be sought after by many. If the Cavaliers decide to trade Kevin Love, Williams could be a perfect fit. – Matt McEwan

Odds that Kevin Durant will …

sign a one-year contract or a multi-year contract with a player opt-out option after one year: 1/99

sign a long-term deal with no player opt-out option: 99/1

Durant has made some stupid plays in his career, but he’s not a stupid man and he doesn’t have a stupid agent. With the salary cap set to explode next year, he’ll want to re-enter free agency in 2017. Jason Patt and Mark Hinog recently noted that he could earn upwards of $100M more by waiting to sign a long-term deal. That’s the kind of number that will get the attention of the already-ridiculously-rich. – Sascha Paruk

Over/under on the number of 2016-17 free agent contracts that will include player opt-out options after one year: 9.5

This is a tough one to predict. Options are incredibly common in NBA contracts, although most aren’t after one year and some are team options.

Any player who thinks he can make more as a free agent next year when, again, the cap is set to jump will be fighting for a player-option after year one. There are 117 free agents in this year’s class, according to SB Nation. But they don’t all have the clout to get a one-year option, and they don’t all have the talent to want one. For every KD, there is a Kris Humphries, who might want the longest deal he can get, knowing his status as an NBAer is tenuous.

Last year, LeBron, Tim Duncan, and Dwight Howard signed multi-year contracts with player options after one year. (So did Shane Larkin and Wayne Ellington with the Nets, strangely.) More guys will be fighting for the one-year player option this year, but GMs will be fighting equally hard the other way. In a relatively weak free agent class, it should be a seller’s market (meaning the players have the edge).

At the end of the day, I see about ten guys walking away with one-year player options. But management could prove much more desperate than I realize and cave to the demands of lesser FAs like JR Smith and Amir Johnson. – Sascha Paruk

Odds the following players change teams (from 2015-16)

LeBron James (Cavaliers): 25/1

LeBron could be leaving some money on the table by re-signing in Cleveland. But he’s already said he’s not fleeing his home state again. I believe him.

Bradley Beal (Wizards): 3/1

Beal wants to stay in Washington, but he wants a max contract more. These are effectively the odds that the Wizards don’t offer him a max deal. (Spoiler alert: they’re going to offer him a max deal.)

Jordan Clarkson (Lakers): 5/3

Clarkson has been one of the lone bright spots on a struggling Lakers team the last couple years. The LA native is now a restricted free agent and wants to stay with his hometown team. Advantage Lakers. But there’s ample interest from elsewhere, including Philly, and the Lakers have their sights set on some bigger FA fish who could push them up against the cap. Clarkson is one of the more plausible movers among the restricted FAs.

Andre Drummond (Pistons): 6/1

Drummond is also a restricted free agent. The Pistons have the right to match any offer he gets. He’ll get a max offer one way or another, but given the current paucity of quality big-men in the league, Detroit would be crazy not to match. They’re not crazy.

Tim Duncan (Spurs): 50/1

The very thought of Tim Duncan in a different uniform verges on incomprehensible. I’m pretty sure even NBA2K has a setting that prevents it.

Dirk Nowitzki (Mavericks): 17/4

Nowitzki is going to end his career the same way he started it: by flying back to Germany and playing for Wurzburg. In all seriousness, Disco Dirk is going to be a Maverick until he retires.

Dwyane Wade (Heat): 5/1

D-Wade wants to stay and the Heat want him back. But Miami also wants to win. Will they be able to agree on a price that satisfies all parties? I think so, but it’s not a lock. As Wade said himself (per Ethan J. Skolnick), “there’s a lot of moving parts.”

– Sascha Paruk

Featured photo credit: Keith Allison (flickr) [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/].