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Heat vs Celtics Game 5 Picks and Odds

Miami Heat
Miami's Tyler Herro became just the fourth player age 20 or younger to score 30 points in a playoff game on Wednesday. Photo by @MiamiHeat
  • The Miami Heat and Boston Celtics play Game 5 of the East Finals on Friday (Sept. 25, 8:30 pm EST)
  • Miami took Game 4 112-109 and lead the best-of-7 series 3-1
  • See below for a betting preview and prediction for Game 5

Believe it or not, Miami is one win away from the NBA Finals. The Heat continued their improbable playoff run with a 112-109 victory in Game 4 of the East Finals over the Boston Celtics, giving them a 3-1 series stranglehold.

Game 5 goes Friday at 8:30 pm EST, and for the fifth time this series Miami will be getting points.

Heat vs Celtics Game 5 Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Miami Heat +2.0 (-112) +108 Over 213.5 (-110)
Boston Celtics -2.0 (-108) -126 Under 213.5 (-110)

Odds taken from FanDuel on Sept. 23rd

The Heat opened up as a 2-point underdog in the NBA odds, in a game that features a total of 213.5. Miami covered as a 3.5-point underdog in Game 4 to improve to 11-2 this postseason, both straight up and against the spread.

Their 11-2 SU mark equals the record for the best postseason start in team history, and they can now clinch a berth in the Finals for the fifth time in the last 10 years.

Herro Ball

Four Heat players scored at least 20 points in Game 4, but no one was bigger down the stretch than Tyler Herro. The rookie out of Kentucky had a game-high 37 points off the bench, and splashed a handful of huge shots in the 4th quarter to put Miami up for good.

Herro is just the fourth player age 20 or younger to score at least 30 points in a playoff game, joining Magic Johnson, Derrick Rose and Brandon Jennings. His 37 points are the fifth most ever by a player off the bench, and the third most all-time by a rookie in a playoff game against Boston.

Herro has scored in double-figures in every Heat postseason game so far, and has made nine 3’s in the last two games.

Another bright spot for Miami was the play of Jimmy Butler, who bounced back nicely after a rough Game 3. Butler chipped in 24 points, 9 rebounds and 3 assists, and was a menace at the defensive end in the final 12 minutes.

Bam Adebayo collected his sixth double-double in 13 playoff games (20 pts, 12 reb) but appeared to hurt his hand in the final few minutes. His status for Game 5 will definitely be something to monitor leading up to Friday’s tip.

Better Late than Never

Boston trailed by as many as 12 in the second half and would have crumbled if not for Jayson Tatum. The Celtics star was held scoreless in the first half for the first time all season, but came out on fire in the second. He poured in 28 points on 10-of-16 shooting, helping Boston erase its double-digit deficit.

He and Jaylen Brown have now each scored at least 20 points in nine of 15 playoff games so far, but the Celtics got just 30 points total from Kemba Walker and Marcus Smart, who combined to shoot 9-of-26 from the floor (34.6%). Boston will need more offensively from Walker if they want to extend this series, as he’s now shot below 43% in four of his past six postseason contests.

Heat Stay Hot in Game 5

Miami has taken a 3-1 lead in a best-of-7 series 11 previous times and and they’ve closed out each one. It’s nonsense that they’re underdogs in Game 5, but forget taking the points, bet them straight up at plus money.

The Heat have slightly more reliable scoring options and take much better care of the ball. They committed 11 fewer turnovers than the Celtics in Game 4, and have turned the ball over 19 fewer times throughout the series. In a matchup this close, turnovers can swing games. It happened in Game 4 and it’s likely to happen again.

Pick: Miami Heat moneyline (+106) 

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