Upcoming Match-ups

Harden & Westbrook’s 2020 NBA MVP Odds Take a Hit After Teaming Up in Houston

James Harden defended by Russell Westbrook
James Harden and Russell Westbrook have reunited as teammates again in Houston. Photo from @Deadspin (Twitter).
  • Harden won MVP in 2018 and has been in the top five in voting the last five seasons
  • Westbrook won MVP in 2017 and has averaged a triple-double three straight years 
  • Are either worthy of an MVP wager after joining forces in Houston?

At one point in their NBA lives, James Harden and Russell Westbrook were young up-and-coming stars, seemingly perfect complimentary pieces to their other young star teammate in Oklahoma City, Kevin Durant.

Flash forward and the two are now bonafide mega-stars in the NBA. Each has an MVP trophy, and an unmistakable playing style that features them as the holder of the rock at virtually every offensive moment in a game.

No wonder their 2020 NBA MVP odds have each taken a hit this week, as Westbrook was traded to Houston to jumpstart Harden and the Rockets back into contention.

NBA MVP Odds

Player Odds at MyBookie
Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks) +300
Stephen Curry (Warriors) +500
James Harden (Rockets) +700
Kawhi Leonard (Clippers) +800
LeBron James (Lakers) +900
Anthony Davis (Lakers) +1000
Joel Embbid (76ers) +1200
Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) +1600
Luka Doncic (Mavericks) +1600
Karl-Anthony Towns (Timberwolves) +2000
Paul George (Clippers) +2500
Russell Westbrook (Rockets) +2500

*Odds taken July 13. Click the link in the table for the full list of NBA MVP odds

Harden was at an average of +630 before the trade and is now +700. Westbrook was at an average of +1400 before fading to +2500.

Are either of these previous MVP winners worth a beat to do it again?

Mega-Pairing May Cancel Each Other Out

This is the classic Steph Curry-Kevin Durant pairing reincarnated. As their own satellite systems, Curry won back-to-back MVP crowns. Durant won his lone trophy the year prior – and only because teammate Westbrook played 46 games due to injury. Once the pair came together in Oakland? Neither was ever a legitimate contender, despite the Warriors being the consensus best team in the league, and neither averaging less than 25 points a game in that three-year stretch.

This will actually be an exceptional case study this season to see if a player from a star pairing can achieve the MVP crown, because it hasn’t happened in the 2000s. This year, along with the newly minted Harden-Westbrook duo, there’s LeBron-Anthony Davis and Kawhi-Paul George. And next year, add KD-Kyrie to that mix.

The closest you could come to an MVP paired to a prolific scorer in the last five years has been Curry with Klay Thompson. And while Thompson is a walking heat-check, he’s actually an overqualified second option.

After that pairing, you’d have to go back to the Miami Heat heyday, when LeBron James won back-to-back crowns alongside Dwyane Wade, but again, Wade was in steady decline, and was on a maintenance plan in LeBron’s second MVP season that limited him to 50 games.

What’s the Best Bet to Make?

If you’re looking at the Houston pairing, Harden is still a worthy wager. Bettors can look at what happened in OKC last year, as Westbrook ceded much of the heavy lifting to George, and the result was an MVP-level season for the forward (until shoulder injuries derailed the run).

His troublesome shooting last season: 42.8% from the field and a ghastly 29% from three point range could be shielded in Houston if Harden is comfortable letting Russ initiate the offense, and getting the ball later in the shot clock, but in more opportune scoring areas. Of the Beard’s 1000+ three point attempts last season, less than 100 were of the catch and shoot variety. That should change drastically in this system. Westbrook is coming off his third straight triple-double average campaign, and he could still do it riding shotgun to Harden’s prolific scoring.

In the end, Giannis being the lone alpha in Milwaukee is why he’s the MVP favorite, but there are a couple of others to look out for. Curry (+500) has a season starting with just Draymond Green healthy, and all the vestiges of a former dynasty gone (Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston). But he does have D’Angelo Russell and a regular season that is far from the intense playoff battering he took.

And don’t sleep on Anthony Davis (+1000). Much of the talk is about how the Lakers lost Kawhi, but people forget that AD was the consensus next ‘it’ guy in the league. He’s one season removed from a 28.1 point, 11.1 rebound campaign where he shot 53.4% from the field and led the league with 2.6 blocks a contest. And that was with a spare parts roster.

Author Image
Discussion

Let's have fun and keep it civil.