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Hawks vs Celtics Game 1 Predictions & Odds

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NBA Basketball

Updated Apr 14, 2023 · 8:00 PM PDT

Trae Young driving vs Jayson Tatum
Mar 1, 2022; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young (11) drives the ball against Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum (0) in the first quarter at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Boston Celtics are 9-point home favorites in Game 1 of their opening round series vs the Hawks
  • Atlanta beat Miami in the Play-In Tournament to secure the 7-seed in the East
  • Read below for the Hawks vs Celtics Game 1 odds and predictions

After the elation of knocking off the Miami Heat to secure the 7-seed in the East’s NBA Playoff Bracket, the Atlanta Hawks (41-41, 17-24 away) will be thrown into the reality: a Round 1 date with the powerhouse Boston Celtics (57-25, 32-9 home).

The C’s have the 2nd-best 2023 NBA Championship odds, and are the only team in the league to hold a top-3 ranking in both offensive and defensive rating (2nd in both categories).

However, they haven’t played a competitive game since an April 4.

Atlanta, meanwhile, will have had three days off after a battle-tested road win in South Beach.

Game 1 goes Saturday (April 15) at 3:30pm ET from the TD Garden in Boston, MA. You can watch the game live on ESPN.

Hawks vs Celtics Game 1 Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Atlanta Hawks +9 (-110) +330 Ov 230.5 (-110)
Boston Celtics -9 (-110) -410 Un 230.5 (-110)

The NBA odds have pegged the hometown Celts as 9-point favorites and -410 on the moneyline, an implied win probability of 80.39%. Game 1 also features a total of 230.5.

Boston tied with Milwaukee with the best home record in the East at 32-9. Atlanta, meanwhile, are tied with the Miami Heat for the worst road record of any team in the conference’s playoff bracket.

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Odds as of April 14 at DraftKings

Atlanta Betting Analysis

In what was expected to be a slugfest of a play-in game, Atlanta kept the Heat at bay with strong offensive execution in a 116-105 win.

Trae Young had 25 points, with eight rebounds and seven assists. Dejounte Murray, brought over in the offseason for the purpose of taking pressure of Young, did exactly that, with 18 points, five boards and six assists. Clint Capela had just four points, but was a beast on the glass, hauling down 21 boards, including eight on the offensive side.

In all, seven players finished in double-digit scoring, including the entire 4-man bench mob played by Quin Snyder. Bogdan Bogdanovic had 14 points, two assists and two steals, while Saddiq Bey had 17 points and six boards.

Atlanta is the 3rd-highest scoring team in the NBA at 118.3 points per game, and seven different Hawk put up better than 11 points per game.

Offense will be their calling card in this one, as they are among the weakest defensive units in the playoffs. Atlanta surrenders 118.1 points per game, which tied for 25th in the NBA with the SacTo Kings.

Boston Betting Analysis

Boston’s injury report is as clean as it’s been all season, with only Danilo Gallinari (knee) out since the preseason.

Time off gave the likes of Jaylen Brown (hand) and Marcus Smart (neck) the chance to get right, and both will be in the starting lineup Saturday.

When healthy, Boston was one of the best to do it in the NBA, scoring 117.9 points per game, while holding teams to 111.4 points. Both ranked fourth in the league.

Hawks vs Celtics Head-to-Head

Atlanta Hawks
VS
Boston Celtics
41-41 Regular Season Record 57-25
0 Head-to-Head Wins 3
118.4 (T-3rd) Points per Game 117.9 (4th)
118.1 (T-25th) Points Against per Game 111.4 (T-4th)
54.1% (T-18th) Effective FG% 56.6% (4th)
55.1% (22nd) Opponent Effective FG% 52.8% (3rd)

One category where the C’s can really make hay against Atlanta is three-point shooting. Boston shoots it at a 37.7% clip, (6th) on the 2nd-most three-point attempts per game (42.6). They sport the 4th-best three-point D, holding teams to 34.5%. Atlanta shoots it from distance at 32.5% (21st).

The Celtics are powered by their all-star duo of Jayson Tatum and Brown. They showed their best and worst against Atlanta this season.

In Boston’s 126-101 win in mid-November, Tatum shot just 6-for-19 for 19 points, seven boards and eight dimes, while Brown had 22 points despite a 1-for-6 mark from downtown.

They went bonkers in a 134-125 win on March 11, with Tatum goin for 34, 15 and six dimes, while Brown had 24 points, five boards, seven assists and two steals.

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Hawks vs Celtics Game 1 Betting Prediction

Atlanta has struggled in this head-to-head, going 0-4 against the spread in their last four in Boston ,and 0-5 ATS in their last five overall against the Celtics.

Boston has been a great bet of late, going 6-1 ATS in their last seven at TD.

A Celtics win is a given, but I think the line is hard to commit to, especially since Tatum played a total of 20 minutes in the final three games of the year.

So let’s stick to the total. This game features three of the top-10 scorers in the league in Tatum, Brown and Young. Boston may need to shake off some rust, but their offensive firepower should win out as their defense tries to catch up.

The over is 5-1 in Boston’s last six games playing on 3+ days rest, while the over is 4-0-1 in Atlanta’s last five.

Pick: 

  • OVER 230.5 points (-110); 1.5 units to win 1.36 units
  • NBA Postseason Record: 1-0 o/u; +1.36 units
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