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Heat vs Suns Picks and Odds

Nick Krueger

by Nick Krueger in NBA Basketball

Updated Apr 13, 2021 · 6:16 AM PDT

Jimmy Butler pass
LOS ANGELES, CA - FEBRUARY 15: Miami Heat Forward Jimmy Butler (22) jumps to make a pass during a NBA game between the Miami Heat and the Los Angeles Clippers on February 15, 2021 at STAPLES Center in Los Angeles, CA. The game was played without fans due to the COVID-19 pandemic. (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire)
  • The red-hot Phoenix Suns look to keep things going at home as 3.5-point favorites against Miami on Tuesday night (10 p.m. EST)
  • New Miami addition Victor Oladipo has been ruled out for the game following an injury against Los Angeles on April 8th
  • Read below for a full breakdown, odds and a pick on the game

The Miami Heat made one of the biggest deals at the NBA trade deadline for Victor Oladipo, but he won’t be available when his new team tips off against Phoenix on Tuesday night.

Oladipo injured himself after a dunk in Miami’s win against the Los Angeles Lakers on April 8th, and without him in the lineup, the Heat are 3.5-point underdogs. Meanwhile, the Suns have won four of their last five games, and are on an eight-game home winning streak.

Phoenix got the better of the Heat when they last met in Miami on March 23, and the Suns won 110-100.

Heat vs Suns Odds

Team Spread at FanDuel Moneyline Total
Miami Heat +3.5 (-105) +136 O 214.5 (-110)
Phoenix Suns -3.5 (-115) -162 U 214.5 (-110)

Odds as of April 13th


The Impact of No Dipo

Since coming to Miami, the Heat are 6-2 with Oladipo on the roster. However, he has only played in four of those games, and was really only starting to find his groove in his last two appearances.

Miami traded away big man Kelly Olynyk to Houston for Oladipo. During Miami’s NBA Finals run last season, Olynyk wasn’t significantly involved in the team’s rotation, but prior to the trade, he was playing around 30 minutes per game.

Now, the Heat are without the scoring boost they traded for and the physical presence that Olynyk had on the floor.

In Miami’s last three games, the Heat have given up the second-most points in the paint and have scored the third-fewest. Olynyk isn’t considered a dominant post player on either end of the floor, but those numbers illustrate that outside of Bam Adebayo, there isn’t much emphasis on things down low. Phoenix center Deandre Ayton had 17 points, 16 rebounds and three blocks when they played last month, and should be in for another big night.

Can Paul Be a Difference Maker?

In their last meeting, Suns point guard Chris Paul had a quiet showing, and made four of his seven shots for eight points with nine assists. The ranginess of Miami’s backcourt seemed to snuff him out a bit, but Devin Booker picked up the slack and scored 23 points in the win.


Per 36 minutes played, Paul is the second-leading scorer on the Suns this season, but he scored just nine points in 26 minutes in Phoenix’s most recent game against Houston. Paul’s last single-digit outing prior to Monday night was the Suns’ previous game against Miami, and he responded to that with a 23-point performance against Orlando the following night.

Kendrick Nunn should theoretically be a better matchup for Paul, but he scored 25 points in the Heat’s loss to Phoenix. The Suns have been one of the league’s best teams in creating assists, and even though they have forced more turnovers as of late, the Heat are a bottom-third team in assists allowed. Paul averages just under 10 assists per 36 minutes, and Phoenix has been one of the league’s hottest teams from three, so he should at least continue getting his teammates plenty of looks.

Suns Stay Hot Against the Heat

Miami has been getting better results recently, but primarily against teams that have been in mired with injuries or in the midst of a down spell. Phoenix has been rolling and has combined with opponents to hit the over on point totals in their last six at home.

In the second of back-to-back games this season, the Suns are 9-3 overall and 8-4 against the spread. At home, Phoenix is 20-8 this season and 19-9 ATS. The Heat have been tough defensively, but have also been one of the lowest-producing offensive teams in the league this season. Even as Phoenix has slipped as of late defending three-point shooting, Miami hasn’t been much better, and the Heat aren’t draining them at a particularly high clip on offense.

Phoenix has been running up-and-down the floor, running up scores, and should continue to do so tonight at home.

  • The Pick: Phoenix -3.5 (-115)

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