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Heat vs 76ers Predictions, Picks & Player Props for April 17

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in NBA Basketball

Updated Apr 17, 2024 · 8:00 AM PDT

Philadelphia 76ers guard Kelly Oubre Jr dribbles up the court while Miami Heat forward Jimmy Butler defends
Apr 4, 2024; Miami, Florida, USA; Philadelphia 76ers guard Kelly Oubre Jr. (9) picks up a loose ball and drives past Miami Heat forward Jimmy Butler (22) during the second half at Kaseya Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Miami Heat visit the Philadelphia 76ers in the Eastern Conference’s 7-vs-8 Play-In Game on Wednesday night
  • The Sixers enter the postseason on an NBA-best eight-game win streak
  • See the Heat vs 76ers predictions, player props, and picks for April 17

For the second straight season, the Miami Heat (46-36, 24-17 away, 41-39-2 ATS) find themselves in the 7-vs-8 Play-In Game in the East. A year after falling to Atlanta at home, the Heat will be hoping for a different result when they visit the Philadelphia 76ers (47-35, 25-16 home, 48-34 ATS) at Wells Fargo Arena on Wednesday night at 7:10 pm ET.

The Sixers opened as modest four-point favorites when the matchup was set on Sunday night, but the Heat vs 76ers point spread has moved significantly in the direction of the home team as of Wednesday morning.

Miami Heat vs Philadelphia 76ers Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Miami Heat +5.5 (-115) +175 O 207.5 (-110)
Philadelphia 76ers -5.5 (-105) -210 U 207.5 (-110)

The 76ers are now laying 5.5 points while their moneyline, which opened at -170 (62.96% implied win probability), has shortened to -210 (67.74%). The Heat have faded from +140 to +175. The game total, meanwhile, has dropped from 209 to 207.5. Both Western Conference Play-In games on Tuesday night stayed well under their totals. Lakers/Pelicans combined for 216 points against a total of 224.5. Warriors/Kings combined for 212 points against a total of 223.5.

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Odds as of April 17 at Fanatics. New users can claim the Fanatics Sportsbook promo to bet on the NBA playoffs. 

The winner of Heat/76ers will earn the #7 seed in the East in the NBA playoff bracket and face the #2 New York Knicks in a best-of-seven in the first round. The loser will face the winner of Atlanta/Chicago on Friday for the #8 seed and the daunting task of facing #1 Boston.

Unlike in the West, where the choice was between the untested Thunder as the #1 seed and the reigning champion Nuggets as the #2, the difference between facing the #1 and #2 seeds in the East is massive.

Sixers Ride Eight-Game Win Streak Into Postseason

No team in the NBA enters the 2024 postseason hotter than Philadelphia. The 76ers won their final eight games of the season (no other team has a win streak longer than five) which included a victory over West #1 seed OKC (109-105 home) and a road win against the same Heat team they’ll face on Wednesday (also 109-105).

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The win streak largely coincides with the return of reigning NBA MVP Joel Embiid (34.7 PPG, 11.0 RPG, 5.6 APG), who was out from Jan. 30 to Apr. 2 with a knee injury. If he’d played enough games to qualify, Embiid would be in another tight race with Nikola Jokic in the 2024 NBA MVP odds.

The Sixers were neck-and-neck with the Celtics for the best Net Rating in the first half of the regular season. But with Embiid only managing 39 games, Philly finished the season just ninth  in Net Rating at +3.1, 14th on offense (116.2) and 11th on defense (113.0).

Embiid sat out the final regular-season game against Brooklyn and is officially listed as questionable on the Sixers’ injury report, but this line wouldn’t be sitting at PHI -5.5 if bettors and oddsmakers alike weren’t confident he’ll be in the lineup.

The 76ers will have to do without De’Anthony Melton (11.1 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 3.0 APG) once again, though. The 6’3 guard is still recovering from a back injury that limited him to just 38 regular-season games.

Miami (Mostly) Healthy at the Right Time

Like the Sixers, Miami was also hammered by injuries this season. Only two of the team’s top-nine scorers played more than 68 games (Bam Adebayo, 71; Jaime Jaquez Jr, 75) and that nonet averaged just 59.9 games played during the regular season.

But as of Wednesday morning, the Heat injury report is about as sparse as its been since opening night. Mid-season acquisition Terry Rozier (16.4 PPG, 4.6 APG) is out with a neck injury, while Josh Richardson (9.9 PPG, 2.8 RPG) is still sidelined due to shoulder surgery. Duncan Robinson (12.9 PPG, 2.8 APG, 39.5 3P%) is listed as probable with an ongoing back issue.

Miami had an up-and-down finish to the regular season, going 4-3 in its last seven games. All four wins came against teams that finished .500 or worse (Houston, Atlanta, and Toronto twice) while all three losses came against over-.500 squads (Indiana, Philadelphia, Dallas). The Heat’s last win against a top-eight team from either conference was a 109-99 win over New York on Apr. 2.

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Tyler Herro and Jimmy Butler share the team lead in scoring at 20.8 PPG with Adebayo just behind at 19.3. Adebayo also leads the team in rebounding (10.4 RPG) and sits 12th in the NBA in that category.

As a team, the Heat rated just 17th in Net Raging (+1.8), despite having the fifth-best D-Rating (111.5). Miami’s offense was a dismal 21st in O-Rating at 113.3. Despite Adebayo’s efforts on the glass, the Heat wound up 18th in rebound percentage (49.8%), though that’s still a shade better than the Sixers (49.3%).

MIA vs PHI Player Props

Player Points Rebounds Assists Three-Pointers Made
Bam Adebayo (MIA) 17.5 (Ov -105 | Un -115) 10.5 (Ov -118 | Un -102) 3.5 (Ov -120 | Un -100) 0.5 (Ov +130 | Un -155)
Buddy Hield (PHI) 7.5 (Ov -118 | Un -102) 2.5 (Ov -105 | Un -115) OFF 1.5 (Ov -155 | Un +130)
Caleb Martin (MIA) 9.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110) 3.5 (Ov -155 | Un +130) 2.5 (Ov +110 | Un -130) 1.5 (Ov -105 | Un -115)
Duncan Robinson (MIA) 6.5 (Ov -112 | Un -108) OFF OFF 1.5 (Ov -135 | Un +114)
Jimmy Butler (MIA) 23.5 (Ov -105 | Un -115) 5.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110) 5.5 (Ov -115 | Un -105) 1.5 (Ov +140 | Un -166)
Joel Embiid (PHI) 30.5 (Ov -105 | Un -115) 11.5 (Ov -108 | Un -112) 4.5 (Ov -155 | Un +130) 1.5 (Ov -102 | Un -118)
Kelly Oubre Jr (PHI) 13.5 (Ov -112 | Un -108) 5.5 (Ov +124 | Un -148) OFF 1.5 (Ov -112 | Un -108)
Nikola Jovic (MIA) 6.5 (Ov -122 | Un +102) 3.5 (Ov -148 | Un +124) OFF 1.5 (Ov +124 | Un -148)
Tobias Harris (PHI) 14.5 (Ov -115 | Un -105) 6.5 (Ov -122 | Un +102) 2.5 (Ov -155 | Un +130) 1.5 (Ov  -112 | Un -108)
Tyler Herro (MIA) 20.5 (Ov -100 | Un -120) 4.5 (Ov -148 | Un +124) 4.5 (Ov -105 | Un -115) 2.5 (Ov -130 | Un +110)
Tyrese Maxey (PHI) 24.5 (Ov +102 | Un -122) 3.5 (Ov -125 | Un +105) 5.5 (Ov -148 | Un +124) 2.5 (Ov  -155 | Un +130)

Embiid’s point total of 30.5 is head-and-shoulders higher than the rest of the field. His teammate Tyrese Maxey (25.9 PPG) has the second-highest on the board at 24.5, while Jimmy Butler leads the Heat players at 23.5. Embiid also has the highest rebound total at 11.5, one higher than Adebayo (10.5).

Miami Heat vs Philadelphia 76ers Prediction

This is a tough draw for the Heat. Philadelphia was (and remains, when healthy) a legitimate NBA championship contender, and it just so happens that they’re almost entirely healthy as postseason play commences. Embiid’s knee may not last long enough for a deep playoff run, but he certainly looks healthy enough to dominate the early rounds. He averaged 30.6 minutes per game in his five games back from injury, scoring 30.5 points and grabbing 9.2 rebounds per night in a quintet of victories, all of which Miami covered against the spread.

MIA vs PHI pick: 76ers moneyline (-210) – 2.1 units

Sascha Paruk’s 2023-24 NBA betting record:

  • 19-26 moneyline (+2.26 units)
  • 24-20-2 ATS (+3.81 units)
  • 1-1 over/under (-0.09 units)
  • 10-16 player props (-7.32 units)
  • 0-3 same-game parlay (-3.00 units)


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