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LeBron James Now Second in Odds to Win MVP at +750; Can He Catch Giannis?

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in NBA Basketball

Updated Jan 5, 2023 · 4:06 AM PST

LeBron driving
LOS ANGELES, CA - FEBRUARY 21: Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James (23) floats to the basket during the Memphis Grizzlies vs Los Angeles Lakers game at Staples Center on Friday February 21, 2020. (Photo by Jevone Moore/Icon Sportswire)
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo is a heavy favorite to win the NBA MVP Award, but LeBron James has asserted himself as the second choice on the board
  • James is averaging 27.2 points per game over his last nine
  • With the Los Angeles Lakers winning 10 of their last 12, can James close the gap and give Antetokounmpo a legitimate push for the MVP award?

Following a small stretch where Milwaukee Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo has “cooled off” and Los Angeles Lakers leaders LeBron James has played incredibly, it’s opened the door for the MVP conversation.

Antetokounmpo has long held a comfortable lead, but has James closed the gap? Let’s take a closer look at this race.

2020 NBA MVP Odds

Player Odds
Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks) -600
LeBron James (Lakers) +750
Luka Doncic (Mavericks) +900
James Harden (Rockets) +900
Anthony Davis (Lakers) +2500
Damian Lillard (Trail Blazers) +4500
Kawhi Leonard (Clippers) +6000

Odds taken on March 2nd

James Is on Fire

One of the reasons why the gap has closed is because James has played incredibly well over the last few weeks. Taking a look at his last nine contests, he’s averaging 27.2 points per game while shooting 50.5% from the field. Those are both above his season-long averages.

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Beyond that, James is adding in 10.0 assists per game with 7.9 rebounds, which are about on par with his seasonal numbers. The Lakers have also won 10 of their last 12 games.

Antetokounmpo Has Cooled Off (Ever So Slightly)

Although The Greek Freak poured in 41 on Sunday in a win over Charlotte, his numbers of late are slightly below the season-long averages, which is why some might think James has a shot at this. He’s been “held” to 22 or less and three of his last eight games, which shouldn’t really be a concern.

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At any rate, over that span, he’s scoring 28.1 points per game with 16.8 rebounds, 6.1 assists and 1.1 blocks. Why it appears he’s “cooled off” is those numbers are about a 1.5 off his regular season scoring average so far, although the other stats are about the same or better (rebounds) across the board.

More importantly, the Bucks just continue to mow down the competition. Sunday’s win was their 52nd in 60 games, which gives them the best record in the NBA. And while the Lakers little hot stretch of 10 wins in 12 games is cute and all, the Bucks have actually won 20 of their last 22.

What’s the Best Bet?

The NBA MVP odds show that Giannis is a huge favorite and I don’t expect that to change in the final 20 games. The Lakers are five games back of the Bucks in the loss column, which basically means they don’t have a good shot of catch them for the No. 1 seed overall.

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If that’s the case, we’re likely to see James start to be rested hear and there as we head down the home stretch because they need to keep him fresh for the playoffs. That will further hurt his chances. He needs to outshine The Greek Freak significantly in the last stretch; not just keep pace.

At any rate, Antetokounmpo’s numbers are undeniable. He’s fresh off his first 40-20 game ever (on Sunday), he’s fourth in the NBA in points per game, fourth in rebounds, 24th in assists and first in PER. He’s the best player on the team with the best record. He’ll win the award for a second straight season.

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