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It’s Win Or Go Home For Bucks and Celtics in Decisive Game 7

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NBA Basketball

Updated Jan 5, 2023 · 3:11 AM PST

Khris Middleton
Khris Middleton has emerged as a viable second option for the Bucks. Photo by Keith Allison (Flickr) [CC License]
  • It’s a Game 7 winner-take-all between the Bucks and Celtics
  • Will Boston hold court at home, or will Milwaukee win the first road game of the series?
  • Can Giannis carry over his dominant performance in a one-game playoff?

It’s the end of the line, and come Game 7 Saturday, we’ll find out if it’s going to be the Milwaukee Bucks or the Boston Celtics that will advance to the second round of the NBA playoffs.

The Bucks continued the trend of the home team holding court all series, using a late fourth quarter push in Game 6 to outlast the Celtics.

After a much-maligned performance the last time out, Giannis Antetokounmpo came up big in Game 6, leaving no doubt that he is the best player in this series, and one of the top stars in the NBA.

YouTube video

Khris Middleton has emerged as a legitimate second banana for the Bucks. He’s now averaging 23.5 points and 5.7 rebounds for the series, including 59% shooting from the field and an even hotter 62.5% from deep.

YouTube video

As for the Celtics, they were literally beaten up and run off the floor at the same time. Boston was pounded in the paint, with the Bucks outscoring them 50-36, outrebounding them 48-39 and watching them breeze by them in transition, where they were outscored 34-6.

Jayson Tatum led the way with 22 points, but an off night from Terry Rozier (5-17 from the field) and Jaylen Brown (6-15 from the field, 1-6 from beyond the arc) spelled their doom. As a team, they finished a paltry 10-36 from deep, just a 27.8% clip.

Perhaps the most disheartening was that, other than Shane Larkin, who was a +1 on the court in his time, every other Celtics’ plus-minus was nothing greater than zero.

Milwaukee Bucks vs Boston Celtics Regular Season Team Stats


107.8 Offensive Rating 105.2
106.5 Points 104.0
23.2 Assists 22.5
47.8 Field-Goal Percentage 45.0
35.5 Three-Point Percentage 37.7
-0.3 Plus/Minus +3.6


107.1 Defensive Rating 101.5
106.8 Points 108.4
-2.9 Rebounding Differential +0.7
-0.2 Turnover Differential -0.2
46.8 Field-Goal Percentage 44.0
37.2 Three-Point Percentage 33.9
47.4 Points In The Paint 39.8


Head-to-Head Results

Date Location Score Winner
April 26 – Playoff MIL 97-86 MIL
April 24 – Playoff BOS 92-87 BOS
April 22 – Playoff MIL 104-102 MIL
April 20 – Playoff MIL 116-92 MIL
April 17 – Playoff BOS 120-106 BOS
April 15 – Playoff BOS 113-107 (OT) BOS
April 3 – Regular Season MIL 106-102 MIL
Dec. 4 – Regular Season BOS 111-100 BOS
Oct. 26 – Regular Season MIL 96-89 BOS
Oct. 18 – Regular Season BOS 108-100 MIL

Notable Injuries and Absences

Bucks Celtics
No injuries No injuries

 Straight Up Advice: Celtics (107-99)

Both teams’ splits from home and away this series are heavily skewed to the home side, particularly for the Celtics, who have topped 100 points in all three games at home, and failed to crack 100 on the road, in what amounts to a 15-point scoring swing in both gyms.

The Celtics have topped 100 points in all three games at home, and failed to crack 100 on the road, in what amounts to a 15-point scoring swing in both gyms.

Expect Boston to maintain that upward trend, particularly from three-point range, where they are shooting nearly 39 percent at TD Garden.

There a couple of small stats that the Bucks do so well at home that would benefit them in this one-game showdown. The first is turnovers. They average about 15 a game in Boston, a full five turnovers less than at the Bradley Center.

They’re also far more aggressive in the paint, putting up nearly 10 blocks a game in Milwaukee, a number that gets cut in half on the famed parquet floor.

Winning those stat boxes might be enough to keep them in the game, and let Giannis freak them home and into Round 2.

But in the end, the home team in these deciding games usually get better all-around production from its role players. Considering that’s all Boston has left on its roster, their effort and hard work should be enough to outlast Antetokounmpo and the Bucks.

Team Trends

Bucks Celtics
Milwaukee is 19-25 SU on the road Boston is 30-14 SU at home
Milwaukee is 5-5 SU in its last ten games Boston is 5-5 SU in its last ten games
Milwaukee is 12-25 SU as an underdog   Boston is 44-17 SU as a favorite
Milwaukee is 16-28-2 ATS after a win Boston is 19-9-1 ATS after a loss
Milwaukee is 33-48-5 ATS this season (42.2%) Boston is 54-32-2 ATS this season (62.8%)
Milwaukee is 22-21-1 ATS on the road    Boston is 25-17-2 ATS at home 

Additional SU Picks (April 28th)

Saturday also kicks off the NBA’s second round, and it should be a fantastic one from the Bay area, as the Pelicans clash with the Warriors.

 Match-Up SU Pick
Pelicans vs Warriors – Game 1 Pelicans


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