NBA Betting Tips: Super-Early Judgments

The start to the NBA season has been better than expected, with a ton of crazy individual performances, tight games, and best of all, the slaying of the Golden State Warriors. The league’s premier “super team” was crushed by the San Antonio Spurs, spawning a few hilarious days of Kevin Durant regret memes. But while growing pains were to be expected for this team, the Warriors still don’t feel like a team that is going to consistently disappoint.

However, some of the other events from the opening days look like they could quickly become trends this NBA season. Here are a few betting lessons to take from the NBA’s opening slate.

Keep taking the OVER on the Houston Rockets

Vegas anticipated a shootout in the Rockets’ opener against the upstart Lakers, but their 224.5 total still wasn’t high enough (120-114). And judging by the composition of this Houston team, there’s no reason to think the Rockets won’t continue to blast the OVER.

For starters, they don’t even care on defense! The Lakers were the league’s worst offense last year in terms of points per game and, while Kobe’s absence has allowed Jordan Clarkson and D’Angelo Russell to finally take over, this team should not be scoring 120 and shooting over 50-percent from the floor.

But Houston allowed them to drive the lanes and take poorly contested shots, seemingly more focused on getting the rebound for a quick outlet. If the Lakers could score at will against them, imagine what a team like the Clippers or Warriors will do.

Making the OVER look all the more attractive is the fact that Houston will be scoring their fair share, too. The Rockets went eerily cold in the 4th quarter against LA, and finished the night shooting just 24.1-percent from beyond the arc. Yet they still scored 114 points. Given the number of open looks guys like Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon were getting, you can expect that three-point percentage to go up most nights.

So until Vegas starts significantly bumping up Houston’s game totals, I’d keep riding the OVER.

Keep taking the OVER on Anthony Davis

The Pelicans’ star player – heck, if Wednesday was any indication, their only player – has acknowledged he’ll need to give a similar 50-point effort every night for his team to stand a chance. It’s a sad statement on the current state of affairs in New Orleans, but it’s welcome news for gamblers. If Davis is going to keep getting fed as a means for survival, there’s only one way to play it.

For Friday’s game against Golden State, Davis’ total points was set for 26, a mark he has surpassed 10 of the last 11 times he’s attempted over 20 field goals. Without Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans in the lineup, there’s little reason to think Davis won’t be taking a majority of the Pelicans’ shots on a nightly basis. If you keep taking Davis to hit the OVER in every game until New Orleans gets healthier, you’ll be right more times then you’re wrong.

Phoenix is not good at basketball

Ya, we probably didn’t need to watch a Suns game to know this, but it’s always nice to have a hunch confirmed. Phoenix got destroyed at home … by Sacramento, the same Kings team that has been an NBA punchline for a decade. Foul trouble kept the Suns only true threat, Devin Booker, from making a bigger impact on the game. But Phoenix committed the most fouls in the league last year, so that storyline isn’t likely to go anywhere.

A team lacking talent and giving away free throws like crazy sounds like one that’s worth betting against, even though the spreads should be big most nights.

Photo credit: Keith Allison (Flickr)[https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/].